ATL: EARL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cycloneye]

Central Tropical Atlantic:
A broad and elongated area of low pressure is located over the
central tropical Atlantic Ocean. Although the associated shower
and thunderstorm activity has increased somewhat since yesterday,
it currently lacks organization. Environmental conditions are
expected to be generally conducive for gradual development, and a
tropical depression is likely to form later this week while moving
toward the west and then west-northwest at around 10 mph, toward the
waters east of the Leeward Islands.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

[Hurricaneman]

The LLC I’m seeing is moving under the southern blob of convection, could be the start of cyclogenesis

[Keldeo1997]

 https://twitter.com/OSUWXGUY/status/1563861051464097793

[NDG]

I think the future of 91L in the 5-10 day range will be how the dry air ahead of it behaves. The 0z Euro run keeps it weak after passing to the north of Leeward Islands because it shows it being displaced from the UL high and getting westerly dry shear.
Keep in mind that the Euro has been doing well against the GFS when it comes to recognizing the dry air in the basin.
Time will tell.

[Blown Away]

Looks like 91L is consolidating to the SW. IMO, this could put the NE Caribbean in play.

[cycloneye]

12z Best Track:

AL, 91, 2022082812, , BEST, 0, 145N, 438W, 25, 1009, DB

[wxman57]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/XJksKXtC/58666903.gif [/url]

Looks like 91L is consolidating to the SW. IMO, this could put the NE Caribbean in play.

It's precisely where the models that take it north of the islands expected it to be. The ridge to the north should weaken significantly on Wednesday, which would allow for a northward jog. That should be enough to keep it north of the Caribbean.

[SFLcane]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/XJksKXtC/58666903.gif [/url]

Looks like 91L is consolidating to the SW. IMO, this could put the NE Caribbean in play.

It's precisely where the models that take it north of the islands expected it to be. The ridge to the north should weaken significantly on Wednesday, which would allow for a northward jog. That should be enough to keep it north of the Caribbean.

And… potentially out to sea from there.

[USTropics]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/XJksKXtC/58666903.gif [/url]

Looks like 91L is consolidating to the SW. IMO, this could put the NE Caribbean in play.

This is a good observation, and the 700mb and 850mb vort signature support this. Below are 48 hours loops of both since the wave axis began to interact with the monsoonal mesocomplex (SW blob):

mid-level


low-level


Can notice in the last few frames mid-level vort signature has decreased in the northern axis while low-level vort signature has migrated a bit further south. Current modeling suggests development wouldn't occur until after this system interacted with the ULL, which stretched out the wave axis/convection and favored development eventually on the northern flank. If something at the surface becomes established towards the SW and earlier in the forecast period could throw a bit of a wrench in the model solutions currently. Model runs yesterday did show a favorable environment and brief development today before interaction with the ULL disrupted the process. As I stated a few days ago, dynamic models would be a bit all over the place while they figured out the physics of consolidation, and while typically the northern flank would be favored as the wave axis enters the Caribbean (due to physics of wave tilt, see Dorian redevelopment after interacting with the islands), that's not always the case east of the Caribbean.

[wxman57]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/XJksKXtC/58666903.gif [/url]

Looks like 91L is consolidating to the SW. IMO, this could put the NE Caribbean in play.

It's precisely where the models that take it north of the islands expected it to be. The ridge to the north should weaken significantly on Wednesday, which would allow for a northward jog. That should be enough to keep it north of the Caribbean.

And… potentially out to sea from there.

Perhaps, but I have been saying that the SE U.S. Coast is under-the-gun this season. Too early to tell for this system.

[SFLcane]

It's precisely where the models that take it north of the islands expected it to be. The ridge to the north should weaken significantly on Wednesday, which would allow for a northward jog. That should be enough to keep it north of the Caribbean.

And… potentially out to sea from there.

Perhaps, but I have been saying that the SE U.S. Coast is under-the-gun this season. Too early to tell for this system.

I here ya! Keeping an eye on this one incase.

[MHC Tracking]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/XJksKXtC/58666903.gif [/url]

Looks like 91L is consolidating to the SW. IMO, this could put the NE Caribbean in play.

The more south it consolidates, the fewer dry air problems it has.

[InfernoFlameCat]

When Wxman57 isn’t bearish on a storm(aka accurate 95% of the time) watch out. It’s a go.

[Blown Away]

Appears NE convection lobe should die off and SW lobe is increasing convection and low level convergence. Clearly see the dry air surge from the N and IMO 91L will lean on the L side of the guidance for a few days.

[SoupBone]

It's precisely where the models that take it north of the islands expected it to be. The ridge to the north should weaken significantly on Wednesday, which would allow for a northward jog. That should be enough to keep it north of the Caribbean.

And… potentially out to sea from there.

Perhaps, but I have been saying that the SE U.S. Coast is under-the-gun this season. Too early to tell for this system.

I have parroted your forecast all season long, and you sure are looking correct so far. You'll have to provide a detailed explanation post-season if you end up nailing it.

[SFLcane]

Hmmm…

 https://twitter.com/alansevere/status/1563882699294740485

[SFLcane]

Those tracks could come further south.

[MHC Tracking]

Broad, but almost closed circulation. If dry air doesn't get in its way I could see this spinning up short term.

[drezee]

 https://twitter.com/andretrotter/status/1563879971810156544

[tropicwatch]

Broad, but almost closed circulation. If dry air doesn't get in its way I could see this spinning up short term.
https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/733552978572869632/1013441264483577897/20220828.1220.mtb.ASCAT.wind.91L.INVEST.25kts-1009mb.145N.438W.25km.noqc.jpg

Could make an argument for a TD.