BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Kay Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122022
400 PM CDT Sun Sep 04 2022
...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM KAY...
SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.8N 102.5W
ABOUT 225 MI...365 KM SW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES
Tropical Storm Kay Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122022
400 PM CDT Sun Sep 04 2022
Satellite data indicate that the depression has strengthened into
Tropical Storm Kay. Although the convective pattern is still a bit
ragged, banding features have improved on the south side of the
cyclone. A pair of ASCAT passes from a few hours ago showed peak
winds around 35 kt to the northeast of the center. Based on that
data and the T2.5 Dvorak classification from TAFB, the initial
intensity is increased a little to 35 kt. Kay is a large storm with
its cloud field extending several hundred miles across, and some of
the outer bands are moving across the coast of southwestern Mexico.
The center is located a little to the north of the previous track,
and the estimated motion is now 290/11 kt. This general motion is
expected to continue for the next couple of days, keeping the core
of the system south of the coast of southwestern Mexico during that
time. Thereafter, the models all show a turn to the northwest and
then the north. Overall, there has been little change in the model
guidance this cycle and the solutions remain relatively tightly
clustered. Despite the tightly-clustered guidance, the GFS and
ECMWF ensemble spreads encompass as far east as the Gulf of
California and as far west as a few hundred miles west of the Baja
California peninsula. The NHC track forecast is a little to the
north of the previous one in the short term, due to the initial
position and motion, but ends up close to the previous track beyond
48 h.
Kay is likely to strengthen during the next few days while it
remains over warm water and embedded in a very moist environment.
Although the Rapid Intensification Indices in the SHIPS model are
relatively high, rapid intensification in the short term appears
unlikely given the broad structure of the cyclone and expected
moderate shear. The new NHC intensity forecast is largely
consistent with the previous one and shows steady strengthening
during the next 2 to 3 days. Beyond that time, weakening is
expected due to cooler SSTs. Regardless of the details, Kay is
expected to be a significant hurricane near Baja in a few days.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. Although Kay is expected to stay offshore, heavy rainfall could
lead to localized flash flooding in portions of southwestern Mexico.
2. Interests in the Baja California peninsula should closely monitor
Kay as tropical storm or hurricane watches could be required tonight
or on Monday.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 04/2100Z 14.8N 102.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 05/0600Z 15.1N 104.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 05/1800Z 15.6N 106.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 06/0600Z 16.4N 107.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 06/1800Z 17.6N 109.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 07/0600Z 19.2N 110.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 07/1800Z 21.1N 112.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 08/1800Z 24.9N 113.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 09/1800Z 28.3N 115.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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