ATL: FIONA - Models

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LarryWx
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#41 Postby LarryWx » Tue Sep 13, 2022 1:52 pm

Blown Away wrote:
LarryWx wrote:
Blown Away wrote:
Slight difference from 00z, gets tangled in Hispaniola which will keep it as a TW and likely farther W.


The overall model consensus trend seems to be further SW. Gulf chances for 96L increasing imho.


At 192 the ECMWF has 96L moving NW just N of E Cuba. Yes more involvement with the GA's will likely keep a weaker/shallow TW more W, but any deepening it's going N just like everything this season. JMHO


Upon further review, the 12Z Euro seems to be combining 96L with some energy coming from the SW Caribbean. Anyone notice this?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#42 Postby chris_fit » Tue Sep 13, 2022 2:04 pm

LarryWx wrote:
Blown Away wrote:
LarryWx wrote:
The overall model consensus trend seems to be further SW. Gulf chances for 96L increasing imho.


At 192 the ECMWF has 96L moving NW just N of E Cuba. Yes more involvement with the GA's will likely keep a weaker/shallow TW more W, but any deepening it's going N just like everything this season. JMHO


Upon further review, the 12Z Euro seems to be combining 96L with some energy coming from the SW Caribbean. Anyone notice this?


I see future 97L catching up and interacting with 96L
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#43 Postby LarryWx » Tue Sep 13, 2022 2:11 pm

chris_fit wrote:
LarryWx wrote:
Blown Away wrote:
At 192 the ECMWF has 96L moving NW just N of E Cuba. Yes more involvement with the GA's will likely keep a weaker/shallow TW more W, but any deepening it's going N just like everything this season. JMHO


Upon further review, the 12Z Euro seems to be combining 96L with some energy coming from the SW Caribbean. Anyone notice this?


I see future 97L catching up and interacting with 96L


Check out the 12z Euro 850 mb vorticity maps. If you look closely, the NE portion of the 240 hour Bahamas low actually is associated with vorticity that is still over Africa, not the low now just offshore Africa, and won't come off til hour 48! I mean this vorticity speeds like a racehorse across the MDR! I'm going to probably post about this in the general models thread.I know the member tolakram is big on following lower level vorticity.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#44 Postby Blown Away » Tue Sep 13, 2022 2:23 pm

LarryWx wrote:
chris_fit wrote:
LarryWx wrote:
Upon further review, the 12Z Euro seems to be combining 96L with some energy coming from the SW Caribbean. Anyone notice this?


I see future 97L catching up and interacting with 96L


Check out the 12z Euro 850 mb vorticity maps. If you look closely, the NE portion of the 240 hour Bahamas low actually is associated with vorticity that is still over Africa, not the low now just offshore Africa, and won't come off til hour 48! I mean this vorticity speeds like a racehorse across the MDR! I'm going to probably post about this in the general models thread.I know the member tolakram is big on following lower level vorticity.


These models always seem to show these competing lows in the long range which is annoying, lol. I guess this is a sign of ill defined systems, GFS shows to multiple lows in some big gyre and clearly now the second low is catching up to 96L. I think the conclusion will be disturbed weather in the SE Bahamas in @7-10 days.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#45 Postby jhpigott » Tue Sep 13, 2022 2:31 pm

The 12z GEPS ensemble suite looks like it threw up all over S and C FL at hour 198

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 91312&fh=0
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#46 Postby AutoPenalti » Tue Sep 13, 2022 2:36 pm

jhpigott wrote:The 12z GEPS ensemble suite looks like it threw up all over S and C FL at hour 198

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 91312&fh=0

Isn't the GEPS the CMC Ensembles?
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Re: RE: Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#47 Postby jlauderdal » Tue Sep 13, 2022 2:43 pm

jhpigott wrote:The 12z GEPS ensemble suite looks like it threw up all over S and C FL at hour 198

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 91312&fh=0
Lets hope that solution doesnt verify. Ridge looks solid but it did for Earl too.
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Re: RE: Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#48 Postby Blown Away » Tue Sep 13, 2022 2:53 pm

jlauderdal wrote:
jhpigott wrote:The 12z GEPS ensemble suite looks like it threw up all over S and C FL at hour 198

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 91312&fh=0
Lets hope that solution doesnt verify. Ridge looks solid but it did for Earl too.


Imagine how many more hurricanes would impact land if all those long range stout and thumb ridges verified... :D
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#49 Postby jhpigott » Tue Sep 13, 2022 3:10 pm

AutoPenalti wrote:
jhpigott wrote:The 12z GEPS ensemble suite looks like it threw up all over S and C FL at hour 198

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 91312&fh=0

Isn't the GEPS the CMC Ensembles?


Yes, I believe so.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#50 Postby AutoPenalti » Tue Sep 13, 2022 3:20 pm

jhpigott wrote:
AutoPenalti wrote:
jhpigott wrote:The 12z GEPS ensemble suite looks like it threw up all over S and C FL at hour 198

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 91312&fh=0

Isn't the GEPS the CMC Ensembles?


Yes, I believe so.

Meh, I don't rely on the GEPS for that reason. The CMC is throwing out solutions all over the place.
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
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ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#51 Postby Spacecoast » Tue Sep 13, 2022 3:52 pm

12z GEFS....
Image
Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#52 Postby blp » Tue Sep 13, 2022 4:42 pm

Hard to believe that the Euro ends up with a similar dual low broad gyre that the GFS was showing. When I first saw that on the GFS I was sure it was garbage runs. However, the GFS was the first to show the Earl turn to the NE so I have to say the GFS cannot be discounted in terms of track evolution even with its major development bias in the W. Caribbean. 2022 season continues to throw curveballs.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#53 Postby Iceresistance » Tue Sep 13, 2022 5:05 pm

jhpigott wrote:
AutoPenalti wrote:
jhpigott wrote:The 12z GEPS ensemble suite looks like it threw up all over S and C FL at hour 198

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 91312&fh=0

Isn't the GEPS the CMC Ensembles?


Yes, I believe so.


Yes it is, it's another name for "GEPS" or "CMCE".
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Re: RE: Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#54 Postby Nimbus » Tue Sep 13, 2022 5:10 pm

jlauderdal wrote:
jhpigott wrote:The 12z GEPS ensemble suite looks like it threw up all over S and C FL at hour 198

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 91312&fh=0
Lets hope that solution doesnt verify. Ridge looks solid but it did for Earl too.


At 84 hours the GEPS is showing an ensemble shotgun pattern over Puerto Rico and by 168 hours most of the track probability is north of Cuba. The ridge weakness needs to pick this up northeast of Puerto Rico near the 84 hour forecast or its going to get trapped under the eastern side of the next ridge.

Not the end of the world for Florida, but if the track spends that second 84 hours flooding the big islands, some of the habitats don't hold up very well in the poorer sections.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#55 Postby Iceresistance » Tue Sep 13, 2022 5:15 pm

Even Happy Hour GFS does not want to develop this . . . :lol:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#56 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 13, 2022 5:18 pm

18z GFS has a little bit more vorticity to start but looses it moving west.

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#57 Postby Cpv17 » Tue Sep 13, 2022 5:28 pm

Iceresistance wrote:Even Happy Hour GFS does not want to develop this . . . :lol:


I think the key takeaway from today is this has more of a chance to get into the Gulf.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#58 Postby Blown Away » Tue Sep 13, 2022 5:41 pm

Cpv17 wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:Even Happy Hour GFS does not want to develop this . . . :lol:


I think the key takeaway from today is this has more of a chance to get into the Gulf.


18z GFS, it appears the TW behind 96L steals the energy and recurves in the SE Bahamas. Not sure if 96L’s vorticity survives into the GOM at least up to @252 hrs.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#59 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 13, 2022 5:48 pm

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1569804376713076736


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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#60 Postby toad strangler » Tue Sep 13, 2022 7:31 pm



Reliable global models?

Like Andy lots but the “reliable” global models aren’t in control. We shall see.
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