ATL: IAN - Models

[toad strangler]

Slight bend to the right. Maybe Big Bend?

[Fancy1001]

Slams into the Florida Panhandle. In the same spot as Michael did.

No, Michael hit the left side of the panhandle, while this storm hit the right side.

[skyline385]

Also in case anyone missed it, 98L already has an elongated circulation so it could possibly develop ahead of schedule


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Are we seeing the familiar stronger = earlier turn north dynamic. Because if so, early strengthening could be a saving grace for the western Caribbean and possibly the US as well.

I don’t think that would matter much until the ridge weakens. A stronger system would then make a faster turn but it would still be near Cuba already.


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[Javlin]

Ten days out got plenty of time to watch if our forecast holds no problem and it should temps 64' 9/28/22 but Fl/GA??

[Stormcenter]

Look for the continued shifts westward…..think Ivan.

[Iceresistance]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1572252251695222785

[BobHarlem]

12z gfs a little left of the 6z. (Tidbits is overloaded with traffic now it seems)

[ronjon]

12z CMC almost identical to 12z GFS on strength and timing. Into Florida big bend in 940s mb range.

[HurricaneBelle]

This run would be disastrous for Tallahassee

[crownweather]

12z CMC almost identical to 12z GFS on strength and timing. Into Florida big bend in 940s mb range.

It actually looked like the 12Z CMC buried 98L into the Bay of Campeche by 240 hrs. Looks to far west to me.

[shah83]

A couple of things to note:

A storm of that size and strength is going to have titanic waves bouncing all around the Gulf. Right hand side, Tampa, et al, are going to see a materially damaging storm surge.

Second, this track absolutely has Tallahassee with full-blown at least SS-2 hurricane conditions, like Michael, Georgia will have a strong inland hurricane.

Third, this is going to absolutely whack the East Coast with rain and tornados.

This is, all, in all, a pretty bad run even if not charismatically disastrous like a Tampa Bay landfall.

[tarheelprogrammer]

I think the models will flip to an East Coast threat in a few days. Ensembles show this as a possibility.

[Fancy1001]

12z CMC almost identical to 12z GFS on strength and timing. Into Florida big bend in 940s mb range.

Are you sure about that, the CMC that I looking at has it in the bay of Campeche

[AutoPenalti]

12z CMC almost identical to 12z GFS on strength and timing. Into Florida big bend in 940s mb range.

Not sure what run that is.

[BobHarlem]

12z CMC almost identical to 12z GFS on strength and timing. Into Florida big bend in 940s mb range.

Double check that, the Canadian seems to head into the bay of campeche (again) very close to where the 0z had it. 12z Icon starts to bend north toward the Yucatan Channel in the Western Caribbean this time (0z was moving more toward the Yucatan Peninsula)

[Fancy1001]

HWRF is off to a good start.

[AutoPenalti]

HWRF has some land interaction that slightly weakens it.

[Spacecoast]

12z GEFS shifts west from 6z
trend:

[jlauderdal]

12z GEFS shifts west from 6z
trend:
https://i.ibb.co/hVrQ1kQ/gfs-ememb-lowlocs-watl-fh216-trend.gif

Not good at all, we were looking for a continuing eastward trend, for now, its an eastern gulf, north gulf coast hit with the whole peninsula felling it in one form or another on the dirty side. One run of course but the back and forth in a range is not what we want to see. Euro up next.

[SFLcane]

12z GEFS shifts west from 6z
trend:
https://i.ibb.co/hVrQ1kQ/gfs-ememb-lowlocs-watl-fh216-trend.gif

Not much of a shift still good chunk hook NE into Florida.