ATL: EARL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Hammy]

Think they want to see it maintain.

That is corrrect since is weak and can change.

I wish they'd at least start PTC advisories, if for no other reason than my curiosity over how they'll handle the intensity forecast. The model split between the GFS/Canadian (the latter has a decent track record) and the Euro/UKMET (the latter also having a decent track record) is driving me insane

[cycloneye]

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
605 PM EDT Fri Sep 2 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued to update the discussion of
the low pressure system located east of the Leeward Islands.

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Danielle, located about 900 miles west of the Azores.

East of the Leeward Islands:
Updated: Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that the circulation associated with an area of low
pressure located a couple of hundred miles east of the Leeward
Islands has become better defined today, and the plane reported that
surface pressures have fallen a bit. If the showers and
thunderstorms associated with the low persist through the evening,
the system could become a tropical depression as early as tonight.

The disturbance is expected to move slowly west-northwestward,
toward the adjacent waters of the northern Leeward Islands.
Regardless of development, locally heavy rains may occur over
portions of the Leeward Islands during the next couple of days, and
interests in that area should monitor the progress of the system.
Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

[ScottNAtlanta]

I haven't looked yet, but I predict JB will be raging that they didn't upgrade this (I don't know what's worse...his raging, or me knowing he will be raging)

[SconnieCane]

Think they want to see it maintain.

That is corrrect since is weak and can change.

I wish they'd at least start PTC advisories, if for no other reason than my curiosity over how they'll handle the intensity forecast. The model split between the GFS/Canadian (the latter has a decent track record) and the Euro/UKMET (the latter also having a decent track record) is driving me insane

They won't start PTC advisories because it isn't a TS+ threat to land within the watch/warning timeframe. That's the only reason the PTC designation is used.

[skyline385]

Updated VDM out apparently?

 https://twitter.com/AlanSevere/status/1565831845270458369

[InfernoFlameCat]

Maybe Td today? Hopefully we get a good recurve out of this. I think we will but it’s hard to tell at this point.

[skyline385]

Looking at FL winds and SFMR, TD at the minimum soon



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[crownweather]

I haven't looked yet, but I predict JB will be raging that they didn't upgrade this (I don't know what's worse...his raging, or me knowing he will be raging)

No, it's comparing every setup to either Hurricane Carol, Hurricane Donna or the 1944 Hurricane is the absolute worst for me. Not sure his fascination and his actual want for a major hurricane landfall in New England is. As someone that's studied New England hurricanes A LOT, it is something that I absolutely do not want up here. It'd put us into the "dark ages" for quite a while.

[Hammy]

Maybe Td today? Hopefully we get a good recurve out of this. I think we will but it’s hard to tell at this point.

As long as it doesn't go poof I feel we'll have a TD at 11. Big question is do they name it or not--personally I feel there is enough support for it.

[ScottNAtlanta]

I haven't looked yet, but I predict JB will be raging that they didn't upgrade this (I don't know what's worse...his raging, or me knowing he will be raging)

No, it's comparing every setup to either Hurricane Carol, Hurricane Donna or the 1944 Hurricane is the absolute worst for me. Not sure his fascination and his actual want for a major hurricane landfall in New England is. As someone that's studied New England hurricanes A LOT, it is something that I absolutely do not want up here. It'd put us into the "dark ages" for quite a while.

I was wrong anyway...he is too busy railing against climate change to have noticed yet...but you are right about Carol, Donna, Edna, or whomever (Belle is another favorite)

[ScottNAtlanta]

I think the convection out front has moistened things up for 91L. It is firing convection over the center now. That center also seems to be moving due west, but it is hard to tell. It keeps pulling the center back to the latest convective cluster

[skyline385]

8 pm update out, raised to 80/80 but no TD yet

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[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Fri Sep 2 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Danielle, located about 900 miles west of the Azores.

1. East of the Leeward Islands:
Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft earlier
this afternoon indicated that the circulation associated with an
area of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles east of the
northern Leeward Islands has become better defined today, and the
plane reported that surface pressures have fallen a bit. If the
showers and thunderstorms associated with the low persist through
the evening, the system could become a tropical depression or
tropical storm as early as tonight.

The disturbance is expected to move generally west-northwestward at
about 10 mph, passing near or just to the north of the northern
Leeward Islands on Saturday, and north of the Virgin Islands and
Puerto Rico Saturday night and Sunday. Regardless of development,
locally heavy rains may occur over portions of the northern Leeward
Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico during the next couple
of days, and interests in those areas should monitor the progress
of the system. Additional information on this system can be found
in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

Forecaster Berg

[Hammy]

8 pm update out, raised to 80/80 but no TD yet

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We won't know if it's a TD until after 9pm when the BT comes out--no land threat so no urgency to upload between. But seems like they're ready to pull the trigger as long as it doesn't collapse in the meantime.

[cycloneye]

8 pm update out, raised to 80/80 but no TD yet

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We won't know if it's a TD until after 9pm when the BT comes out--no land threat so no urgency to upload between. But seems like they're ready to pull the trigger as long as it doesn't collapse in the meantime.

Northern Leeward islands.

[Hammy]

8 pm update out, raised to 80/80 but no TD yet

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We won't know if it's a TD until after 9pm when the BT comes out--no land threat so no urgency to upload between. But seems like they're ready to pull the trigger as long as it doesn't collapse in the meantime.

Northern Leeward islands.

I probably should've clarified no immediate threat.

Most of the weather is going north and it's not moving or developing particularly quickly.

[Iceresistance]

Boom of convection to the west of the CoC.


https://s4.gifyu.com/images/28257226.gif

[cycloneye]

AL, 91, 2022090300, , BEST, 0, 183N, 598W, 35, 1005, DB

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bal912022.dat

[Iceresistance]

AL, 91, 2022090300, , BEST, 0, 183N, 598W, 35, 1005, DB

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bal912022.dat

Really close to Earl/PTC 6 right now

[InfernoFlameCat]

Still no genesis? Huh. Guess we wait and see around 11 EDT.