ATL: FIONA - Models

[skyline385]

0Z Super Ensemble really highlights the uncertainty regarding the forecast

[BobHarlem]

6z euro ensembles really taking that "weaker west, stronger north" saying to heart here

[PTrackerLA]

Looks like roughly 2/3 of the 06z Euro ensembles favor the 'weaker west' solution.

[skyline385]

HAFS really has had a much better handle of Fiona's SW jog compared to the GFS

[cheezyWXguy]

6z euro ensembles really taking that "weaker west, stronger north" saying to heart here
https://i.imgur.com/CfuBWui.png

What’s interesting to me about this map is that “weaker-west, stronger-north” looks to be more of a function of land interaction, not strength prior to DR landfall. Nearly all members are roughly the same strength up to that point. This really is a headache of a forecast, but those members in the center of the spread that go just north of Cuba are a little concerning

[PTrackerLA]

Is the HF3A model available to the public?

[SFLcane]

HAFS really has had a much better handle of Fiona's SW jog compared to the GFS

https://i.imgur.com/9Ttx0sM.jpg

Indeed and is also much further west.

[SFLcane]

Is the HF3A model available to the public?

https://storm.aoml.noaa.gov/viewer/

[ScottNAtlanta]

I'm a bit worried by these models that show a bend to the west later in the forecast. That's a track that is usually associated with brisk intensification

[SFLcane]

[skyline385]

Just going to say that although HAFS has got the SW jog pretty decently so far, its results have been kinda mixed this season. Its still experimental so got to keep that in mind...

[skyline385]

12Z GFS seems to be running weird, just randomly jumps around several times near PR. However its still NE of previous runs.

[Blown Away]

12z GFS... Insists on WNW movement now...

[SFLcane]

https://i.imgur.com/AqtpxSB.gif
12z GFS... Insists on WNW movement now...

Of course you have a perfectly timed trof digging breaking the ridge. If it indeed is a hurricane it will be up up and away. Bring on fall

[Iceresistance]

https://i.imgur.com/AqtpxSB.gif
12z GFS... Insists on WNW movement now...

Of course you have a perfectly timed trof digging breaking the ridge. If it indeed is a hurricane it will be up up and away. Bring on fall

Yep, that is what the GFS is showing on WeatherNerds.

https://www.weathernerds.org/models
(The GFS model is the default model on WeatherNerds)

[skyline385]

Recurve looks very likely now, all models seem to be getting onboard

[BobHarlem]

12z CMC gets further west than 0z into the Bahamas as a hurricane, but then recurves after that much more sharply and gets east of the 0z run at that point, but manages to miss Bermuda to the west. Very different from yesterday's 12z of Florida and New Orleans. Good trend other than the Bahamas.

[tolakram]

12Z GFS

[tarheelprogrammer]

Models starting to look fishy. Bet on it.

[skyline385]

 https://twitter.com/Weathernerds/status/1570811933594636292