ATL: IAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Jr0d]

Our house is experiencing minor flooding in Key West... still about 2 more hours to high tide with the "back side" and surge side yet to impact us, hopefully it will stay minor but I am not optimistic We are staying at a hotel on the 2nd floor because we were concerned about the flood risk. I figure many must be experincing significant flooding as our elevation is about average on the island.

This is S. Roosevelt/A1A

[Owasso]

117kt FL, 92kt SMFR in the NE eyewall

[CrazyC83]

I wouldn't put much weight on the SFMR as the water is very shallow in the area. The flight-level winds nicely support the current 105 kt intensity.

[GCANE]

Drop measures 95% RH at 850mb.
Firing on all 8 cylinders again.

[Teban54]

I wouldn't put much weight on the SFMR as the water is very shallow in the area. The flight-level winds nicely support the current 105 kt intensity.

So now pressure, wind speed and even eye diameter are all almost back to pre-EWRC levels, with still plenty of time before landfall...

[wx98]

One word set off like ten people lol. Everyone here is getting tense. From FL winds in NE quad, the current intensity is supported, in agreement with CrazyC83.

[jhpigott]

Tornado warning up here in Jupiter, FL

[ElectricStorm]

Welp I thought the ERC would lower the winds a bit. Clearly that's not the case. Not good at all

[SconnieCane]

Dry Tortugas are not considered a landfall?

They are. Florida is considered to have recorded two named storm landfalls in one day in August 2004 when TS Bonnie moved into the Panhandle 22 hours before Charley passed over the Dry Tortugas.

[Jr0d]

The surge is really coming in strong now. i will try to get some pictures if the power/street lights stay on long enough.

[SconnieCane]

The surge is really coming in strong now. i will try to get some pictures if the power/street lights stay on long enough.

Thanks for the reports, stay safe!

[skillz305]

Our house is experiencing minor flooding in Key West... still about 2 more hours to high tide with the "back side" and surge side yet to impact us, hopefully it will stay minor but I am not optimistic We are staying at a hotel on the 2nd floor because we were concerned about the flood risk. I figure many must be experincing significant flooding as our elevation is about average on the island.

This is S. Roosevelt/A1A

https://i.ibb.co/TrGxrWD/IMG-20220927-220955.jpg

Stay vigilant. God bless

[CrazyC83]

Dry Tortugas are not considered a landfall?

They are. Florida is considered to have recorded two named storm landfalls in one day in August 2004 when TS Bonnie moved into the Panhandle 22 hours before Charley passed over the Dry Tortugas.

Yes that would be landfall officially. Uninhabited islands are still land.

[Keldeo1997]

[Category5Kaiju]

The thing is, even 12 or so hours until landfall is plenty of time for strengthening unfortunately. The waters here are 29-31 C, so thermodynamics is not an issue at all. And plus, this is the Gulf of Mexico we're talking about, where storms like Harvey, Michael, Laura, and Ida all blew up within a relatively small distance from landfall zone. Oh, and I'll add Charley too.

[Category6]

After a very rainy afternoon and evening, things have been really quiet here in Broward County. Very surprised at how big of a dry slot there is to Ian’s immediate East and northeast. Could the worst of the weather be over for Miami and Broward?

[wx98]

Dry Tortugas are not considered a landfall?

They are. Florida is considered to have recorded two named storm landfalls in one day in August 2004 when TS Bonnie moved into the Panhandle 22 hours before Charley passed over the Dry Tortugas.

Yes that would be landfall officially. Uninhabited islands are still land.

I wondered myself. I thought maybe not since the eye is many times larger than the islands.

[aspen]

Is it just me, or has Ian is going faster than forecast? It looks like it’ll make landfall earlier than the NHC or models say it will.

[hipshot]

The surge is really coming in strong now. i will try to get some pictures if the power/street lights stay on long enough.

Where are you?

[Hurricane Mike]

I'm shocked how fast and beautifully Hurricane Ian seems to have completed it's eyewall replacement cycle.