ATL: IAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Fancy1001]

I’m wondering whether I’ll wake up to a solid cat four, or a high-end cat four on the verge of becoming a five.

Ian’s motto so far has been exceed expectations, so who knows.

[Keldeo1997]

I will say, this storm will be great for science/research purposes. Got full EWRC on Doppler from beginning to end.

[Jr0d]

Im probably 60nmiles from the center. This is intense. Gusts over 70mph easily. Would not be surprised if we have had gusts to 100mph.

Seawalls are breached. Surge is becoming a major problem. A lot of flooded areas. Some roads are easily waist deep.

[tolakram]

[Texas Snowman]

Just heartbroken for the people of Sanibel, Captiva, and Fort Meyers. Bad scenario for them. We were there in late July and are fearful for the ones we know there and what will happen to their home.

Praying for SW Florida. They will need plenty of help after this.

—————

“Lee County officials have informed city staff to expect potential storm surge between 8 – 12 feet, with the possibility of a storm surge as high as 15 feet.

Lee County has ordered a mandatory evacuation for Zone A, including all of Sanibel, and all of Zone B in Lee County. Click here[ application/pdf ] to see the map of areas under a mandatory evacuation order.”

https://www.mysanibel.com/news-announcements/news/hurricane-ian-preparation-information-release-update-7

[SconnieCane]

They are. Florida is considered to have recorded two named storm landfalls in one day in August 2004 when TS Bonnie moved into the Panhandle 22 hours before Charley passed over the Dry Tortugas.

Yes that would be landfall officially. Uninhabited islands are still land.

I wondered myself. I thought maybe not since the eye is many times larger than the islands.

Irma's eye was bigger than Barbuda. Paulette's eye was bigger than Bermuda. Not sure if Dorian's eye was bigger than Great Abaco, but it was close. Landfall is simply the center of circulation passing over land.

[Jr0d]

Where are you?

Key West. We are getting hammered

[skyline385]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1574951632604831744

[hipshot]

Im probably 60nmiles from the center. This is intense. Gusts over 70mph easily. Would not be surprised if we have had gusts to 100mph.

Seawalls are breached. Surge is becoming a major problem. A lot of flooded areas. Some roads are easily waist deep.

Where is Cayo Hueso? Never mind, I googled it.

[Teban54]

Even on 1-minute IR imagery, you can see how quickly things are evolving.

The -80°C convection to the SW is wrapping around, CDO cooling in all directions, and the eye is clearing out again.

[skyline385]

 https://twitter.com/swrightwpbf/status/1574950690879045632

[NDG]

Indeed the Dry Tortugas are in the middle of the eye right now.

[Keldeo1997]

 https://twitter.com/pcavlin/status/1574951889229479937

[syfr]

Im probably 60nmiles from the center. This is intense. Gusts over 70mph easily. Would not be surprised if we have had gusts to 100mph.

Seawalls are breached. Surge is becoming a major problem. A lot of flooded areas. Some roads are easily waist deep.

Stay as safe as possible , and thank you for the live reports.

[Blown Away]

Our house is experiencing minor flooding in Key West... still about 2 more hours to high tide with the "back side" and surge side yet to impact us, hopefully it will stay minor but I am not optimistic We are staying at a hotel on the 2nd floor because we were concerned about the flood risk. I figure many must be experincing significant flooding as our elevation is about average on the island.

This is S. Roosevelt/A1A

https://i.ibb.co/TrGxrWD/IMG-20220927-220955.jpg

Stay safe my friend! We were in KW a couple years ago and a TD created so much flooding, it was incredible how fast the island filled up.

[ThunderForce]

The thing is, even 12 or so hours until landfall is plenty of time for strengthening unfortunately. The waters here are 29-31 C, so thermodynamics is not an issue at all. And plus, this is the Gulf of Mexico we're talking about, where storms like Harvey, Michael, Laura, and Ida all blew up within a relatively small distance from landfall zone. Oh, and I'll add Charley too.

Having been through Michael, I agree that it's very much possible Ian could end up stronger than forecasted. With the Gulf having been more or less inactive all year save for Alex's tropical wave, 12 hours is more than enough time for Ian to go through possible explosive intensification. I remember thinking Michael was going to be "just a tropical storm" and a day or two later I found that it now said major hurricane instead.

In my opinion, when it comes to tropical weather it's best to keep your guard up when they pop up on the NHC's page even if their entire cone says it's forecasted to be just a TS or a low end hurricane and away from your area. You never know when the forecasted strength or path of a tropical storm will change.

[Blown Away]

The rain, lighting, and gusty winds are intense tonight and hundreds of miles NE of Ian…

[wx98]

https://twitter.com/pcavlin/status/1574951889229479937

If Ian comes ashore as an intensifying Cat 4 this may be worse than Charley altogether.

[bahamaswx]

[url]https://twitter.com/pcavlin/status/1574951889229479937[url]

Even so, that video of the gas station being shredded in Charley is still some of the most intense hurricane footage I've ever seen.

[gailwarning]

Ivan 2.0 is occurring right now. So many tornados

For South Florida, it’s been one after the other. Definitely reminds me of Ivan too in that regard.

Reminding us of Irma (funny they seem to be “I” storms)
Where our Sunday afternoon was one Tornado Warning after another.
We just had the Tornado Warning cell pass through here.
No tornado, just nonstop lightning and a burst of rain.

My house was hit by a microburst (I think) in Melbourne/Viera during Matthew. Areas of rotation were coming in off the ocean so fast the met couldn't keep up with them. We heard that awful freight train sound, a first for me. My house, the one next door, and the one behind me all lost most of our shingles. Roof only a month old for one of them. My neighbors across the street didn't shutter the sliding door leading out to their pool. They saw a massive amount of water lift out of their pool, then slam back down again. The force of the water was so powerful it infiltrated the house and soaked their carpets in two rooms.