ATL: IAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[wx98]

I see the extrapolated pressure on the AF plane isn't working again.

[Fancy1001]

What are the chances that Ian slows down so much that upwelling causes it to weaken?

[dukeblue219]

What are the chances that Ian slows down so much that upwelling causes it to weaken?

In this part of the GoM? Zero.

[Kazmit]

Once again no pressure readings from recon.

[Full8s]

One more easterly shift from the NHC and Tampa Bay will be entirely out of the cone. Crazy considering where we were 18 hours ago.

[IcyTundra]

One more easterly shift from the NHC and Tampa Bay will be entirely out of the cone. Crazy considering where we were 18 hours ago.

Really similar to how Charley played out the only difference is that the modeling is lot better now than it was in 2004 so we were able to figure out earlier that it wouldn't be a direct hit for Tampa.

[jasons2k]

This could be just incredibly awful for Cape Coral…

[StAuggy]

What are the chances that Ian slows down so much that upwelling causes it to weaken?

As shallow and warm as that water is it would probably take some time before it had any significant impact. I wouldn’t count on it at this point

[PandaCitrus]

If you run the radar and follow the dry tortugas in the center where the eye is, you can easily see Ian still moving. It's a little bit difficult to decern because of the eyewall replacement cycle, the bigger eye is changing shape and contracting. It may be slowing down a tad too but I don't see a stall.

[Category6]

Very surprised at this extended dry slot for Miami-Dade and Broward counties. Are the heavy rain bands done for us?

[jdjaguar]

One more easterly shift from the NHC and Tampa Bay will be entirely out of the cone. Crazy considering where we were 18 hours ago.

Really similar to how Charley played out the only difference is that the modeling is lot better now than it was in 2004 so we were able to figure out earlier that it wouldn't be a direct hit for Tampa.

earlier as in last night at 11:00?
models struggled with this storm.

I find little solace

[toad strangler]

The National Weather Service in Melbourne has issued a

* Tornado Warning for... Southeastern St. Lucie County in east central Florida... Northeastern Martin County in east central Florida...

* Until 1145 PM EDT.

* At 1118 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located over Witham Field, or over Port Salerno, moving northwest at 30 mph. HAZARD...Tornado. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely.

* This dangerous storm will be near... Stuart, Sewall's Point and Witham Field around 1120 PM EDT. Palm City, Jensen Beach and North River Shores around 1130 PM EDT. Port Saint Lucie, Walton and Port Saint Lucie River Park around 1140 PM EDT. Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include Hutchinson Island South. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TAKE COVER NOW! Move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. Tornadoes are extremely difficult to see and confirm at night. Do not wait to see or hear the tornado. TAKE COVER NOW! Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways. && TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED; MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN

[TallyTracker]

My group at work is being activated to likely do roadway assessment surveys once the storm has passed. Not sure yet if my group is going to focus on the northern part of the state or if we will be deployed south toward Tampa/Fort Myers.

[AutoPenalti]

Very surprised at this extended dry slot for Miami-Dade and Broward counties. Are the heavy rain bands done for us?

It’s looking like it.

[PandaCitrus]

This could be just incredibly awful for Cape Coral…

Yes and 12 feet may be an underestimate if it comes in at a slow moving messy Cat 4. The SLOSH maps go much higher in this area. It's very surge prone with all the canals. Lots of the original Cape Coral homes from the 50s to 70s built before elevations were raised will badly flood.

[FLpanhandle91]

Correlation coefficient drop on that tornado warned cell moving through Stuart. Could be on the ground causing damage.

[Fancy1001]

Why is it not surprising at all that right when they’re going to be going back through the eye, the pressure readings malfunction.

[ObsessedMiami]

Very surprised at this extended dry slot for Miami-Dade and Broward counties. Are the heavy rain bands done for us?

I don’t know about you but my radar in South Dade is filling up again. Doubt it’s over by a long shot

[chaser1]

Where are you?

Key West. We are getting hammered

Is the power largely out on the island, or only sporadic outages?

[TheHurricaneGod]

Wind continues to pick up in fort lauderdale. probably 20 MPH sustained now, gusting to 30