ATL: IAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Fancy1001]

Hopefully we’ll still get the pressure reading from the drop

[IcyTundra]

One more easterly shift from the NHC and Tampa Bay will be entirely out of the cone. Crazy considering where we were 18 hours ago.

Really similar to how Charley played out the only difference is that the modeling is lot better now than it was in 2004 so we were able to figure out earlier that it wouldn't be a direct hit for Tampa.

earlier as in last night at 11:00?
models struggled with this storm.

I find little solace

The models weren't great but I was refering to how the NHC had Charley making landfall in Tampa 5 hours before landfall.

[sikkar]

The new hot tower looks sick on the sandwich RGB imagery.

[Kat5]

Wind continues to pick up in fort lauderdale. probably 20 MPH sustained now, gusting to 30

17 mph sustained here by Nova university. Gust has recently been picking up.

[Category6]

Very surprised at this extended dry slot for Miami-Dade and Broward counties. Are the heavy rain bands done for us?

It’s looking like it.

A little unusual how the immediate east side of this storm is so dry once you get past the eyewall. Even though the rain has stopped, winds are picking up. About 25 mph sustained with higher gusts now.

[toad strangler]

Very surprised at this extended dry slot for Miami-Dade and Broward counties. Are the heavy rain bands done for us?

I don’t know about you but my radar in South Dade is filling up again. Doubt it’s over by a long shot

That’s what I was just looking at. I had to rub my eyes. There are cells popping like popcorn.

[jdjaguar]

Wind continues to pick up in fort lauderdale. probably 20 MPH sustained now, gusting to 30

20 MPH?

why haven't you evacuated?

[galaxy401]

First time in awhile that SMFR winds are in Cat 3 intensity.

[ElectricStorm]

Recon flew a tad lower through the center this pass. Likely means the pressure has dropped a couple mbs

[Category6]

Very surprised at this extended dry slot for Miami-Dade and Broward counties. Are the heavy rain bands done for us?

I don’t know about you but my radar in South Dade is filling up again. Doubt it’s over by a long shot

I’m seeing that now. Looks like more bands are beginning to form Over the open water

[CronkPSU]

One more easterly shift from the NHC and Tampa Bay will be entirely out of the cone. Crazy considering where we were 18 hours ago.

Really similar to how Charley played out the only difference is that the modeling is lot better now than it was in 2004 so we were able to figure out earlier that it wouldn't be a direct hit for Tampa.

earlier as in last night at 11:00?
models struggled with this storm.

I find little solace

going along with this, here is the tweet I just posted talking about how the trend has not been my friend and how far off the NHC was a few days ago (yeah yeah i know, 100 miles off is well within the cone and I was ALWAYS in the cone and they were much closer than many models but let me gripe a little lol...)

 https://twitter.com/richschellhase/status/1574965316115124224

[wx98]

Very strong FL winds (105 kt) and SFMR (100 kt) on the south side.

[dpep4]

According to Google Traffic, the roads look good for anyone looking to make a late night evac, especially the interstates.

Don't know about gas, though.

[ConvergenceZone]

One bit of positive news is that I noticed in the forecast that Ian is already forecasted to have moved offshore and up into the east coast by Friday. That is far far faster than what was anticipated previously when it was thought that Ian would still be on the Florida coast or slightly inland dumping rain on Friday. So at least the days and days of rain doesn't seem much of a threat compared to before... It starts to leave Florida Thursday Evening. Got to take any bit of good news we can get.

[chaser1]

Wind continues to pick up in fort lauderdale. probably 20 MPH sustained now, gusting to 30

20 MPH?

why haven't you evacuated?

[TheHurricaneGod]

Multiple tornado velocity scans 10 miles to the west. By the I-75 and route 27 interchange.

[Sciencerocks]

[TheHurricaneGod]

Wind continues to pick up in fort lauderdale. probably 20 MPH sustained now, gusting to 30

20 MPH?

why haven't you evacuated?

I'll evacuate when it hits 24.8 mph.

[CronkPSU]

One bit of positive news is that I noticed in the forecast that Ian is already forecasted to have moved offshore and up into the east coast by Friday. That is far far faster than what was anticipated previously when it was thought that Ian would still be on the Florida coast or slightly inland dumping rain on Friday. So at least the days and days of rain doesn't seem much of a threat compared to before...Got to take any bit of good news we can get.

NHC says it is slower than their forecast earlier...from the 11PM discussion

The dynamical model consensus, TVCN, prediction has again
shifted a little to the east, and is just slightly slower on
this cycle. Therefore the official track forecast has, again, been
shifted a few degrees to the east of the previous one.

[Landy]

Most of my family is in the Cape Coral / Fort Myers area. Praying for a miracle right now.