ATL: IAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[ElectricStorm]

Most of my family is in the Cape Coral / Fort Myers area. Praying for a miracle right now.

Praying for them, hopefully they stay safe

[wx98]

Really similar to how Charley played out the only difference is that the modeling is lot better now than it was in 2004 so we were able to figure out earlier that it wouldn't be a direct hit for Tampa.

earlier as in last night at 11:00?
models struggled with this storm.

I find little solace

going along with this, here is the tweet I just posted talking about how the trend has not been my friend and how far off the NHC was a few days ago (yeah yeah i know, 100 miles off is well within the cone and I was ALWAYS in the cone and they were much closer than many models but let me gripe a little lol...)

https://twitter.com/richschellhase/status/1574965316115124224?s=20&t=4GsCdNrZESXQ60VWswTWiA

I went back and looked at the first forecast discussion on Friday. The 120-hour point was: 28/0600Z 26.0N 82.3W.

As we sit here right now, Ian is at 28/0300Z 24.9N 82.9W.

I know they shifted north and west and then back south and east, but you really can't get any better than that for the first advisory on a blob of thunderstorms.

[Hurricane Mike]

Video Update on Ian:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C4H-tbRvUTo

[Fancy1001]

Did they drop a dropsonde into the eye or not?

[ElectricStorm]

Did they drop a dropsonde into the eye or not?

Very likely yes it just takes a bit to update

[ConvergenceZone]

One bit of positive news is that I noticed in the forecast that Ian is already forecasted to have moved offshore and up into the east coast by Friday. That is far far faster than what was anticipated previously when it was thought that Ian would still be on the Florida coast or slightly inland dumping rain on Friday. So at least the days and days of rain doesn't seem much of a threat compared to before...Got to take any bit of good news we can get.

NHC says it is slower than their forecast earlier...from the 11PM discussion

The dynamical model consensus, TVCN, prediction has again
shifted a little to the east, and is just slightly slower on
this cycle. Therefore the official track forecast has, again, been
shifted a few degrees to the east of the previous one.

I'm surprised they would say slower, because if you look at the NHC forecast and time-line track it shows it moving inland late tomorrow afternoon where previously it didn't suppose to move inland until either late tomorrow night or Thursday Morning...

[derpbynature]

Absolutely horrifying scenario for Key West and SWFL, and potentially once it gets inland, Orlando/Kissimmee.

I'm further north and west in southwest Ocala, so hopefully here it's just a rain-and-TS-strength wind event. Looking at the rain totals on the GFS, though, it's crazy how much variation there might be just within a few miles in Marion County. 20 inches in one corner, barely 4 in the other. Seems like the situation here will be VERY sensitive to any "wobbles" or movement back toward due north.



Euro is a little less colorful. I thought for a second it was predicting no rain for half the county until I looked at the scale. Need a more threatening color than off-white for 12-15 inches of rain I think.

[Texas Snowman]

 https://twitter.com/michaelrlowry/status/1574967469906984960

[cheezyWXguy]

Wow, that burst on the western side...I don't even know what to say

[sikkar]

Wow, that burst on the western side...I don't even know what to say

Maxing out on all floaters.

[Stormgodess]

Ooooh Interesting! I hope this goes well.



 https://twitter.com/TheAstroNick/status/1574866213292875792

[jcera]

Dropsonde measured 357 kt at 850 mb lol

[Teban54]

For a system that just came out of an EWRC and is supposed to be dealing with shear and dry air, seeing this kind of convection is just surreal.

[CronkPSU]

Wow, that burst on the western side...I don't even know what to say

 https://twitter.com/Jack_RPease/status/1574969542995890176

[eastcoastFL]

That last line of storms that came through with the tornado warning knocked out my power here in Palm city.

[ElectricStorm]

According to the eye drop looks like the pressure actually rose a couple mb

[cheezyWXguy]

Outbound radar velocities are maxing out (140.9mph) in the northern part of the storm on every frame, and periodically maxing out inbound (142mph) in the southern part. Ian is ramping up

[Jr0d]

Hope it eases up for you soon. This is what frustrates me: just because people aren't in the direct path does NOT mean they won't get significant effects. I know the mets try to convey that, but it seems to fall on deaf ears.

I was one of the few taking this seriously. Even yesterday most were convinced this would be well off to our west. Today work asked me if I was coming in at 6pm, this is when I called this morning to ask why things weren't storm ready.

I am surprised we never were issued a hurricane warning nor issued evacuation orders for non residents (tourists), hell i think it is irresponsible for the planners.

That said, looks like we will get one nore big push before it starts to ease up, that can take hours though. The current satellite shows an intense south half of Ian.

[jdray]

Absolutely horrifying scenario for Key West and SWFL, and potentially once it gets inland, Orlando/Kissimmee.

I'm further north and west in southwest Ocala, so hopefully here it's just a rain-and-TS-strength wind event. Looking at the rain totals on the GFS, though, it's crazy how much variation there might be just within a few miles in Marion County. 20 inches in one corner, barely 4 in the other. Seems like the situation here will be VERY sensitive to any "wobbles" or movement back toward due north.

https://i.imgur.com/h5oQdmw.png

Euro is a little less colorful. I thought for a second it was predicting no rain for half the county until I looked at the scale. Need a more threatening color than off-white for 12-15 inches of rain I think.
https://i.imgur.com/3cIxWeT.png

The majority of the rainfall will be from the bands that roll through pre and post. Its always a challenge to predict which areas get the heaviest rain. Florida is bad enough with pop up showers, I truly feel for the Mets trying to forecast what the rainfall will be.

[eastcoastFL]

One bit of positive news is that I noticed in the forecast that Ian is already forecasted to have moved offshore and up into the east coast by Friday. That is far far faster than what was anticipated previously when it was thought that Ian would still be on the Florida coast or slightly inland dumping rain on Friday. So at least the days and days of rain doesn't seem much of a threat compared to before...Got to take any bit of good news we can get.

NHC says it is slower than their forecast earlier...from the 11PM discussion

The dynamical model consensus, TVCN, prediction has again
shifted a little to the east, and is just slightly slower on
this cycle. Therefore the official track forecast has, again, been
shifted a few degrees to the east of the previous one.

I'm surprised they would say slower, because if you look at the NHC forecast and time-line track it shows it moving inland late tomorrow afternoon where previously it didn't suppose to move inland until either late tomorrow night or Thursday Morning...

I think you're comparing it to when it was supposed to landfall further north.