ATL: IAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Chemmers]

it is now 942mb that is a 12mb drop since last recon

Figured. It has looked really good after the ERC was completed.

definitely, i am hoping it doesn't keep intensifying all the way to land fall, but after the ERC dont know much in it way to stop it now

[AubreyStorm]

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/1021831616605200516/1024598231784620032/unknown.png

939MB

Cat 4

[Iceresistance]

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/1021831616605200516/1024598231784620032/unknown.png

939MB

Cat 4

The NW Quad only supports 105-108 knots, the southern half appears to be the strongest half and they've yet to make the first complete pass through there.

[Owasso]

141kt FL

[Iceresistance]

141kt FL

Jeez, that is in the eastern quad of the eyewall, I'm wondering on what the intensity would be on the southern eyewall.

[Extratropical94]

141kt FL

Jeez, that is in the eastern quad of the eyewall, I'm wondering on what the intensity would be on the southern eyewall.

I'd guess around 120-130 kt at flight level. Right front quadrant should be the strongest

[caneman]

Ian has been wobbling to the N the last few hours, however that last few radar frames look to be wobbling back to the NNE

Those weren't wobbles, that went on for 4 or 5 hours. Looking more like Sarasota to me

[caneman]

Still nearly no discernible right turn in the past few hours...

https://media.giphy.com/media/DfGquH4AURP8QaTB4P/giphy.gif

It’s forecasted to wobble north, even NNW for a short bit before eventually making the turn to the right later this morning.

So what we are seeing currently are the final wobbles before the “final approach.”

Once again those weren't just wobbles, it pretty much went North for 5 hours. The Euro also now has it cutting in much closer to Tampa After landfall.

[Extratropical94]

943/15 on the center drop. Supports 941-42

[Iceresistance]

There is still an insane amount of lightning in the northern eyewall

[AxaltaRacing24]

Still nearly no discernible right turn in the past few hours...

https://media.giphy.com/media/DfGquH4AURP8QaTB4P/giphy.gif

It’s forecasted to wobble north, even NNW for a short bit before eventually making the turn to the right later this morning.

So what we are seeing currently are the final wobbles before the “final approach.”

Once again those weren't just wobbles, it pretty much went North for 5 hours. The Euro also now has it cutting in much closer to Tampa After landfall.

It went that way for a few hours, but the 00z model suite forecasted that motion tonight, so it was expected. Now we wait for the upcoming turn.

[caneman]

It’s forecasted to wobble north, even NNW for a short bit before eventually making the turn to the right later this morning.

So what we are seeing currently are the final wobbles before the “final approach.”

Once again those weren't just wobbles, it pretty much went North for 5 hours. The Euro also now has it cutting in much closer to Tampa After landfall.

It went that way for a few hours, but the 00z model suite forecasted that motion tonight, so it was expected. Now we wait for the upcoming turn.

Once again, it wasn't expected. It was forecast to move at .15 degrees and it moved at nearly .00. Further, the Euro now has it moving in at a. NNW angle and not NW. I've been watching since midnight and this will likely affect my area even more. BELIEVE what you will , I'm not getting into a wobble watching war.

[Extratropical94]

Cat 4 officially.
942/120

...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND IAN HAS STRENGTHENED INTO AN
EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE...
...EXPECTED TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, CATASTROPHIC
WINDS AND FLOODING IN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.6N 82.9W
ABOUT 75 MI...125 KM WSW OF NAPLES FLORIDA
ABOUT 105 MI...165 KM SSW OF PUNTA GORDA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...942 MB...27.82 INCHES

[Iceresistance]

Cat 4 officially.
942/120

...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND IAN HAS STRENGTHENED INTO AN
EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE...
...EXPECTED TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, CATASTROPHIC
WINDS AND FLOODING IN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.6N 82.9W
ABOUT 75 MI...125 KM WSW OF NAPLES FLORIDA
ABOUT 105 MI...165 KM SSW OF PUNTA GORDA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...942 MB...27.82 INCHES

My goodness, Ian has never been this close to becoming Category 5.

[StormingB81]

Seeing what Ian did overnight and the GFS model run for instance, I wonder if they wish they gave the east coast of Florida a Hurricane Watch, which yes I know would be a warning now

[weeniepatrol]

EVERY YEAR. Wave breaking, 2013, cold canary current. I want a refund

[AubreyStorm]

Cat 4 officially.
942/120

...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND IAN HAS STRENGTHENED INTO AN
EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE...
...EXPECTED TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, CATASTROPHIC
WINDS AND FLOODING IN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.6N 82.9W
ABOUT 75 MI...125 KM WSW OF NAPLES FLORIDA
ABOUT 105 MI...165 KM SSW OF PUNTA GORDA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...942 MB...27.82 INCHES

My goodness, Ian has never been this close to becoming Category 5.

An extremely dangerous situation for Florida.

[HDGator]

Seeing what Ian did overnight and the GFS model run for instance, I wonder if they wish they gave the east coast of Florida a Hurricane Watch, which yes I know would be a warning now

Well, they gave Key West a surge warning after they were standing in water.

[Hammy]

EVERY YEAR. Wave breaking, 2013, cold canary current. I want a refund

This season almost seems like it's taking vengeance for all the early downplaying--we have the strongest storm of the season, in the Gulf, about to slam into the west coast of Florida, after most people wrote off the Gulf as too hostile/too late in the season just a week or two ago

Good lesson in always being prepared no matter how quiet it looks or how late it is

[Iceresistance]

Cat 4 officially.
942/120

...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND IAN HAS STRENGTHENED INTO AN
EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE...
...EXPECTED TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, CATASTROPHIC
WINDS AND FLOODING IN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.6N 82.9W
ABOUT 75 MI...125 KM WSW OF NAPLES FLORIDA
ABOUT 105 MI...165 KM SSW OF PUNTA GORDA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...942 MB...27.82 INCHES

My goodness, Ian has never been this close to becoming Category 5.

An extremely dangerous situation for Florida.

I know someone that lives in Orlando, I may have stronger justification to get them to evacuate. You don't want to mess around with a Category 4 monster.