ATL: IAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Iceresistance]

These powerful convective bursts are just insane! The lightning is absolutely crazy too.


https://s5.gifyu.com/images/48726754.gif

[Bocadude85]

5am NHC track says watch out Sanibel/Boca Grande/Englewood

[caneman]

Port Charlotte still looks like a good bet but the latest Euro has it cutting more NNW once inland be interesting to see what the other models do.

[Iceresistance]

Lowest Extrapolated pressure is only 940.7 mb, maybe terrible luck or something?

[caneman]

5am NHC track says watch out Sanibel/Boca Grande/Englewood

Yep it went due North for 5 hours. Curious to see if hits Englewood. As this point it doesn't matter I suppose, they're about 10 or 15 miles west of Port Charlotte so affects will likely be same other than that route may take it much closer to Tampa once inland.

[tolakram]

[tronbunny]

My goodness, Ian has never been this close to becoming Category 5.

An extremely dangerous situation for Florida.

Unless they are in a low-lying area and/or an unsound structure, leaving is pointless. Winds arr not forecast to exceed TS strength on o-town. There are no safer places within a 100mi range at this stage.

I know someone that lives in Orlando, I may have stronger justification to get them to evacuate. You don't want to mess around with a Category 4 monster.

Only forecast for TS winds. Only helpful if in low-lying area for flooding or if in vulnerable structure. No place safe within 100mi.

[tolakram]

[johngaltfla]

5am NHC track says watch out Sanibel/Boca Grande/Englewood

Locals are saying Boca Grande/Englewood. I'll give a full report once I get cell service back in a day or so.

[HDGator]

5am NHC track says watch out Sanibel/Boca Grande/Englewood

Yep it went due North for 5 hours. Curious to see if hits Englewood. As this point it doesn't matter I suppose, they're about 10 or 15 miles west of Port Charlotte so affects will likely be same other than that route may take it much closer to Tampa once inland.

Yes, and now it looks like it's taken the NNE turn on radar and you may see all of the above.
Sanibel is on track for the eastern eyewall while Venice and Englewood are on track for the northwest eyewall.
I wouldn't want any of this one.

[tronbunny]

https://i.imgur.com/Wkoxna7.gif

Do I see a dry slot to the east?

[johngaltfla]

5am NHC track says watch out Sanibel/Boca Grande/Englewood

Yep it went due North for 5 hours. Curious to see if hits Englewood. As this point it doesn't matter I suppose, they're about 10 or 15 miles west of Port Charlotte so affects will likely be same other than that route may take it much closer to Tampa once inland.

Since this is my backyard, Boca Grande is what the locals are saying and for all practical purposes is that's Englewood. If it shifts by an few miles north it's Venice, south it's Punta Gorda. Regardless Florida Bros, standby for a week without power. Good luck to my fellow S2Kers.

[St0rmTh0r]

These powerful convective bursts are just insane! The lightning is absolutely crazy too.

https://s5.gifyu.com/images/48726754.gif
https://s5.gifyu.com/images/48726754.gif

its in those incredibly warm waters 30-31c

[caneman]

5am NHC track says watch out Sanibel/Boca Grande/Englewood

Yep it went due North for 5 hours. Curious to see if hits Englewood. As this point it doesn't matter I suppose, they're about 10 or 15 miles west of Port Charlotte so affects will likely be same other than that route may take it much closer to Tampa once inland.

Since this is my backyard, Boca Grande is what the locals are saying and for all practical purposes is that's Englewood. If it shifts by an few miles north it's Venice, south it's Punta Gorda. Regardless Florida Bros, standby for a week without power. Good luck to my fellow S2Kers.

Let's hope it's just a week. Frances, Jeanne, Irma was 5 or 6 days each. This one may be weeks. Stay safe my Florida peeps.

[Stormgodess]

I'm seeing several meteorologist saying gusts recorded up to 165mph?



 https://twitter.com/RaulNBCBoston/status/1575050728884039680

[Extratropical94]

New center drop 942/13 -> 941.

[Extratropical94]

I'm seeing several meteorologist saying gusts recorded up to 165mph?



https://twitter.com/RaulNBCBoston/status/1575050728884039680?t=boUYnyRsNuF_Qjv-AiDaMQ&s=19

I would rather say "estimated" instead of "recorded". 165 mph (145 knots) is the estimated gust speed that the NHC associates with sustained winds of 140 mph (120 knots).

[weeniepatrol]

EVERY YEAR. Wave breaking, 2013, cold canary current. I want a refund

This season almost seems like it's taking vengeance for all the early downplaying--we have the strongest storm of the season, in the Gulf, about to slam into the west coast of Florida, after most people wrote off the Gulf as too hostile/too late in the season just a week or two ago

Good lesson in always being prepared no matter how quiet it looks or how late it is

I know my comment could easily be considered insensitive. Let me clarify this is not the case at all. The gravity of this has finally settled in and I am filled with an awful, sinking dread. My family in duval and Flagler should be fine. They might have property damage with their homes on the St. John’s river which flooded during H Irma, but they will live. I hope to GOD the same can be said for folks in sw Florida today.

I’m just so tired of the same downcasting every year despite these continuous high impact major hurricanes. It’s exhausting. Maybe I’m just letting it get to me too much. Sorry to vent everyone, but I needed it right now. Good luck to all.

[Iceresistance]

The winds may be instantaneous, but WOW!


https://s4.gifyu.com/images/Ian-Dropsonde-into-Southern-Eyewall.png

[REDHurricane]

Ominous