ATL: IAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Iceresistance]

I recently found out that my grandmother's friends that live in Orlando may have evacuated from the city.

[Chris90]

Flight level supports an upgrade to Cat 5, especially with 137kt SFMR, in addition to the earlier dropsonde which had 500m average of 135kts, 150m average of 138kts, and splashed in 131kts.

This feels eerily similar to the early September morning in 2017 when recon found insane values in Irma as she made her first approach to Barbuda.

[Hurricane2022]

I'm expecting 98L (soon Hermine\Ian) to be the strongest storm of the season. It will have winds of 155 kt and pressure sub-915 mbar. it will also hit a region close to where Michael '18 made landfall.

Aged like milk

Maybe not completely.

[Owasso]

935mb extrap

[skyline385]

935 mb extrapolated

[cjrciadt]

I recently found out that my grandmother's friends that live in Orlando may have evacuated from the city.

I left flood prone Kissimmee, to the newest Universal resort till Friday

[Fancy1001]

Hey guys, I just woke up, why did I miss? See’s a 160kt flight level wind reading. Holy mother of….

[wx98]

Pressure is starting to tank. Down around 935.

[kevin]

In the meantime the other plane found 933.6 mb extrapolated.

[Iceresistance]

In the meantime the other plane found 933.6 mb extrapolated.

Was about to say that on the double pass

[RevanTheJedi96]

Already this close to a CAT 5 and isn't there still hours of strengthening left for Ian too??

[kevin]

Already this close to a CAT 5 and isn't there still hours of strengthening left for Ian too??

Yes due to Ian's southern and faster track I don't expect any weakening before landfall. If anything more strengthening is still possible. It potentially still has 5 - 8 hours above water depending on its speed.

[Teban54]

160 FL

kts or mph?

The fact this question had to be asked shows how ridiculous it is.

[Zonacane]

Great googly moogly

[cjrciadt]

160 FL

kts or mph?

The fact this question had to be asked shows how ridiculous it is.

Yup I was too floored to accept knots

[kevin]

Eye has fully cleared out again, IR improving.

[Iceresistance]

kts or mph?

The fact this question had to be asked shows how ridiculous it is.

Yup I was too floored to accept knots

When I saw it, I was like "Wait what?"

[KWT]

Strong case for an upgrade to cat-5 based on that data, its definately no lower than 135kts regardless but that 160kts FL with the rapid deepening of pressure may be enough for the NHC to pull the trigger.

[Jelmergraaff]

Dropsonde W-eyewall:

[kevin]

Raw T# also supports a cat 5 = 7.1 (918 mb, 143 kt). CI# is still a bit behind at 6.8 (925 mb, 135 kt) but should also catch up soon since I don't see Ian deteriorating any time soon.