ATL: IAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[marionstorm]

I am guessing 165-170mph at landfall unfortunately. Definitely coming in as a Cat 5 imo

[Iceresistance]

Eye drop shows 938 mb with 12 knots of wind.

[LARanger]

What did I just wake up to!!!!!!!

A tiny rotating slice of Hell.

Godspeed, Florida.

[ColdMiser123]

So the NW quadrant is the the strongest, beautiful job by the Euro persistent for days that it was going to be the strongest at landfall.

That is also a significant point for areas to the north of the likely landfall point, including Tampa and the surrounding suburbs.

[Welwood470]

Naples Metar @1052 UTC
Winds: from the SE (130 degrees) at 26 MPH (23 knots; 11.8 m/s) gusting to 51 MPH (44 knots; 22.6 m/s)

Sarasota Metar @1049UTC
Winds: from the NE (50 degrees) at 23 MPH (20 knots; 10.3 m/s) gusting to 40 MPH (35 knots; 18.0 m/s)

[Nimbus]

Huge eyewall carrying those core winds around, worst situation possible for SW Florida.
Not sure what the northern jog is going to do to the Tampa bay area, Intellicast only showing winds less than 40 mph for inland Pinellas county and 50 mph on the beaches. Irma was worse than that and Ian looks like he could be similar for the western areas of Tampa bay.

I dont buy the 50. We got up to 70 with Frances and Jeanne near the Pinellas beaches

Orlando could see 100 mph wind gusts in the squalls and Intellicast is only showing 35 mph winds through Friday?
A lot of people inland are probably not expecting this storm and haven't prepared.
Power may stay on in Pinellas till noon?

[RevanTheJedi96]

Curious why the pressure is so high(nearly 940) and yet the winds could make this a CAT 5 already. Usually CAT 5s have pressure in the low 920s or high 910s.

[kevin]

000
WTNT44 KNHC 281057
TCDAT4

Hurricane Ian Special Discussion Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
700 AM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022

This special advisory is being issued to update Ian's current and
forecast intensity. Recent NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter flight-level winds are as high as 160 kt, with SFMR data
around 135 kt, with a central pressure down to 937 mb. This
supports a current intensity of 135 kt.

The forecast intensity is raised to 135 kt at landfall, and we are
now forecasting a catastrophic storm surge of 12 to 16 ft from
Englewood to Bonita Beach, Florida. No other significant changes
were made to the forecast.

Previous discussion --

Ian completed an eyewall replacement cycle during the overnight
hours, and very recent data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter aircraft indicate that the hurricane has reached category 4
intensity. The plane reported that the central pressure has fallen
to 942 mb, down about 10 mb from around midnight. The plane
measured a peak 700-mb flight-level wind of 141 kt, and an SFMR
wind of 109 kt. A blend of the 700-mb reduced wind and the SFMR
yields an initial intensity of 120 kt. Although there is some
moderate shear over the hurricane, this is not likely to affect Ian
very much due to its large size. Some fluctuations in intensity are
possible before the center reaches the coast later today, but Ian is
expected to reach the coast as an extremely dangerous category 4
hurricane. Weakening is expected while Ian moves over the Florida
peninsula.

Ian has jogged a little to the left this morning, but the
longer-term motion remains north-northeastward or 015 degrees
at 9 kt. The hurricane should continue moving north-northeastward
through Thursday between the western side of a subtropical ridge
and a broad trough over the eastern United States. This motion is
expected to bring the center of Ian onshore along the west coast of
Florida later today, and over central Florida tonight and Thursday.
A shortwave trough that is forecast to move southward toward the
northwestern Gulf in about 24 to 36 hours is expected to sharpen
the trough over the eastern U.S. causing Ian to turn northward
along coast of northeastern Florida and Georgia Thursday night and
Friday. The model envelope did not change much this cycle, and very
little cross-track adjustments were needed to the official
forecast. The GFS and ECWMF are noticeably slower than the
remainder of the dynamical models, and the updated NHC track
forecast is a little slower than the previous advisory and slightly
slower than the TVCA consensus aid out of respect for those models.


Key Messages:

1. Catastrophic storm surge inundation of 12 to 16 feet above ground
level along with destructive waves are expected somewhere along the
southwest Florida coastline from Englewood to Bonita Beach,
including Charlotte Harbor. Residents in these areas should urgently
follow any evacuation orders in effect.

2. Catastrophic wind damage is expected along the southwestern
coast of Florida beginning in the next few hours where the core of
Ian makes landfall. Preparations to protect life and property
should be urgently rushed to completion.

3. Heavy rainfall will spread across the Florida peninsula through
Thursday and reach portions of the Southeast U.S. later this week
and this weekend. Widespread, life-threatening catastrophic
flooding is expected across portions of central Florida with
considerable flooding in southern Florida, northern Florida,
southeastern Georgia and coastal South Carolina. Widespread,
prolonged major and record river flooding expected across central
Florida.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/1100Z 25.9N 82.8W 135 KT 155 MPH
12H 28/1800Z 26.7N 82.4W 135 KT 155 MPH
24H 29/0600Z 27.7N 81.7W 80 KT 90 MPH...INLAND
36H 29/1800Z 28.7N 81.1W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
48H 30/0600Z 29.8N 80.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER
60H 30/1800Z 31.6N 80.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 01/0600Z 33.6N 81.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
96H 02/0600Z 36.1N 82.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
120H 03/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake

[Hammy]

Curious why the pressure is so high(nearly 940) and yet the winds could make this a CAT 5 already. Usually CAT 5s have pressure in the low 920s or high 910s.

My guess would be trough interaction/high background pressure.

[RevanTheJedi96]

So the NW quadrant is the the strongest, beautiful job by the Euro persistent for days that it was going to be the strongest at landfall.

Euro did a really good job with Ian all things considered. Much better than the GFS.

[115MphAgatha]

000
WTNT44 KNHC 281057
TCDAT4

Hurricane Ian Special Discussion Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
700 AM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022

This special advisory is being issued to update Ian's current and
forecast intensity. Recent NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter flight-level winds are as high as 160 kt, with SFMR data
around 135 kt, with a central pressure down to 937 mb. This
supports a current intensity of 135 kt.

The forecast intensity is raised to 135 kt at landfall, and we are
now forecasting a catastrophic storm surge of 12 to 16 ft from
Englewood to Bonita Beach, Florida. No other significant changes
were made to the forecast.

Previous discussion --

Ian completed an eyewall replacement cycle during the overnight
hours, and very recent data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter aircraft indicate that the hurricane has reached category 4
intensity. The plane reported that the central pressure has fallen
to 942 mb, down about 10 mb from around midnight. The plane
measured a peak 700-mb flight-level wind of 141 kt, and an SFMR
wind of 109 kt. A blend of the 700-mb reduced wind and the SFMR
yields an initial intensity of 120 kt. Although there is some
moderate shear over the hurricane, this is not likely to affect Ian
very much due to its large size. Some fluctuations in intensity are
possible before the center reaches the coast later today, but Ian is
expected to reach the coast as an extremely dangerous category 4
hurricane. Weakening is expected while Ian moves over the Florida
peninsula.

Ian has jogged a little to the left this morning, but the
longer-term motion remains north-northeastward or 015 degrees
at 9 kt. The hurricane should continue moving north-northeastward
through Thursday between the western side of a subtropical ridge
and a broad trough over the eastern United States. This motion is
expected to bring the center of Ian onshore along the west coast of
Florida later today, and over central Florida tonight and Thursday.
A shortwave trough that is forecast to move southward toward the
northwestern Gulf in about 24 to 36 hours is expected to sharpen
the trough over the eastern U.S. causing Ian to turn northward
along coast of northeastern Florida and Georgia Thursday night and
Friday. The model envelope did not change much this cycle, and very
little cross-track adjustments were needed to the official
forecast. The GFS and ECWMF are noticeably slower than the
remainder of the dynamical models, and the updated NHC track
forecast is a little slower than the previous advisory and slightly
slower than the TVCA consensus aid out of respect for those models.


Key Messages:

1. Catastrophic storm surge inundation of 12 to 16 feet above ground
level along with destructive waves are expected somewhere along the
southwest Florida coastline from Englewood to Bonita Beach,
including Charlotte Harbor. Residents in these areas should urgently
follow any evacuation orders in effect.

2. Catastrophic wind damage is expected along the southwestern
coast of Florida beginning in the next few hours where the core of
Ian makes landfall. Preparations to protect life and property
should be urgently rushed to completion.

3. Heavy rainfall will spread across the Florida peninsula through
Thursday and reach portions of the Southeast U.S. later this week
and this weekend. Widespread, life-threatening catastrophic
flooding is expected across portions of central Florida with
considerable flooding in southern Florida, northern Florida,
southeastern Georgia and coastal South Carolina. Widespread,
prolonged major and record river flooding expected across central
Florida.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/1100Z 25.9N 82.8W 135 KT 155 MPH
12H 28/1800Z 26.7N 82.4W 135 KT 155 MPH
24H 29/0600Z 27.7N 81.7W 80 KT 90 MPH...INLAND
36H 29/1800Z 28.7N 81.1W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
48H 30/0600Z 29.8N 80.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER
60H 30/1800Z 31.6N 80.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 01/0600Z 33.6N 81.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
96H 02/0600Z 36.1N 82.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
120H 03/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake

NHC lowballing as usual.

[Fancy1001]

000
WTNT44 KNHC 281057
TCDAT4

Hurricane Ian Special Discussion Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
700 AM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022

This special advisory is being issued to update Ian's current and
forecast intensity. Recent NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter flight-level winds are as high as 160 kt, with SFMR data
around 135 kt, with a central pressure down to 937 mb. This
supports a current intensity of 135 kt.

The forecast intensity is raised to 135 kt at landfall, and we are
now forecasting a catastrophic storm surge of 12 to 16 ft from
Englewood to Bonita Beach, Florida. No other significant changes
were made to the forecast.

Previous discussion --

Ian completed an eyewall replacement cycle during the overnight
hours, and very recent data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter aircraft indicate that the hurricane has reached category 4
intensity. The plane reported that the central pressure has fallen
to 942 mb, down about 10 mb from around midnight. The plane
measured a peak 700-mb flight-level wind of 141 kt, and an SFMR
wind of 109 kt. A blend of the 700-mb reduced wind and the SFMR
yields an initial intensity of 120 kt. Although there is some
moderate shear over the hurricane, this is not likely to affect Ian
very much due to its large size. Some fluctuations in intensity are
possible before the center reaches the coast later today, but Ian is
expected to reach the coast as an extremely dangerous category 4
hurricane. Weakening is expected while Ian moves over the Florida
peninsula.

Ian has jogged a little to the left this morning, but the
longer-term motion remains north-northeastward or 015 degrees
at 9 kt. The hurricane should continue moving north-northeastward
through Thursday between the western side of a subtropical ridge
and a broad trough over the eastern United States. This motion is
expected to bring the center of Ian onshore along the west coast of
Florida later today, and over central Florida tonight and Thursday.
A shortwave trough that is forecast to move southward toward the
northwestern Gulf in about 24 to 36 hours is expected to sharpen
the trough over the eastern U.S. causing Ian to turn northward
along coast of northeastern Florida and Georgia Thursday night and
Friday. The model envelope did not change much this cycle, and very
little cross-track adjustments were needed to the official
forecast. The GFS and ECWMF are noticeably slower than the
remainder of the dynamical models, and the updated NHC track
forecast is a little slower than the previous advisory and slightly
slower than the TVCA consensus aid out of respect for those models.


Key Messages:

1. Catastrophic storm surge inundation of 12 to 16 feet above ground
level along with destructive waves are expected somewhere along the
southwest Florida coastline from Englewood to Bonita Beach,
including Charlotte Harbor. Residents in these areas should urgently
follow any evacuation orders in effect.

2. Catastrophic wind damage is expected along the southwestern
coast of Florida beginning in the next few hours where the core of
Ian makes landfall. Preparations to protect life and property
should be urgently rushed to completion.

3. Heavy rainfall will spread across the Florida peninsula through
Thursday and reach portions of the Southeast U.S. later this week
and this weekend. Widespread, life-threatening catastrophic
flooding is expected across portions of central Florida with
considerable flooding in southern Florida, northern Florida,
southeastern Georgia and coastal South Carolina. Widespread,
prolonged major and record river flooding expected across central
Florida.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/1100Z 25.9N 82.8W 135 KT 155 MPH
12H 28/1800Z 26.7N 82.4W 135 KT 155 MPH
24H 29/0600Z 27.7N 81.7W 80 KT 90 MPH...INLAND
36H 29/1800Z 28.7N 81.1W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
48H 30/0600Z 29.8N 80.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER
60H 30/1800Z 31.6N 80.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 01/0600Z 33.6N 81.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
96H 02/0600Z 36.1N 82.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
120H 03/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake

I highly, highly, highly doubt that Ian won’t get up to 160 if it’s expected to remain at 155 for 12 hours

[caneman]

So the NW quadrant is the the strongest, beautiful job by the Euro persistent for days that it was going to be the strongest at landfall.

That is also a significant point for areas to the north of the likely landfall point, including Tampa and the surrounding suburbs.

Agree, I've been on here all night worried about this. The Euro 6z is showing it coming thru Tampa at a NNE angle. Many went to bed thinking we'd escaped the worst of it.

[caneman]

So the NW quadrant is the the strongest, beautiful job by the Euro persistent for days that it was going to be the strongest at landfall.

Euro did a really good job with Ian all things considered. Much better than the GFS.

Yep, and Tampa peeps better pay attention!!! The 6z has it passing thru Tampa now

[RevanTheJedi96]

So the NW quadrant is the the strongest, beautiful job by the Euro persistent for days that it was going to be the strongest at landfall.

Euro did a really good job with Ian all things considered. Much better than the GFS.

Yep, and Tampa peeps better pay attention!!! The 6z has it passing thru Tampa now

[Ryxn]

Curious why the pressure is so high(nearly 940) and yet the winds could make this a CAT 5 already. Usually CAT 5s have pressure in the low 920s or high 910s.

It's rare to have such high pressures for a near-C5/C5. Matthew in 2016 which was a "C5" with "165 mph" had a anomalously high pressure of 934 mb. That means Fiona this year was MORE INTENSE with 932 mb. Just some perspective. On the opposite end of Matthew, Iota peaked at 917 mb, nearly 20 mb lower than Matthew, but was only a high end Category 4.

[NDG]

It never fails this time of the year like I mentioned a few days ago.
A lot of people think that wind shear will weaken a MH when it gets in the GOM when there is a trough near by. When the hurricane moves parallel to the UL winds it doesn't do anything to it, if anything it helps it ventilate if the trough is at a certain distance.

[Fancy1001]

I think one of the recon planes leaving, they better get another one in quick.

Also I can’t tell if the other one is leaving too or if it’s preparing for a northwest pass.

[Jelmergraaff]

I think one of the recon planes leaving, they better get another one in quick.

Also I can’t tell if the other one is leaving too or if it’s preparing for a northwest pass.

Yeah, probably a NW pass, as that's where the highest windspeeds seem to be.

[Bocadude85]

So the NW quadrant is the the strongest, beautiful job by the Euro persistent for days that it was going to be the strongest at landfall.

Euro did a really good job with Ian all things considered. Much better than the GFS.

Yep, and Tampa peeps better pay attention!!! The 6z has it passing thru Tampa now

Where are you seeing the 06z Euro run?