ATL: IAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[kevin]

Eye clearing out rapidly (again). Could result in a further pressure drop over the next few hours if it can keep its eye clean.

[zal0phus]

I just woke up expecting Ian to have stayed around 125 mph and this is what I see. Absolutely horrifying; even not heading into Tampa Bay, Ian will be one of the worst storms in recent memory.
I remember visiting Fort Myers in my childhood and how beautiful it was. This is just so awful to see

[kevin]

AF301 looks like it made it out. They are pros at this.

https://i.imgur.com/Qv5Ddb2.png

Well done by them. Looks like they found the weakest part of the eyewall and managed to escape through there. And still they found 144 kt FL.

[Ryxn]

Eye seems to be obscured now. But I guess it will clear out.

[skyline385]

AF301 looks like it made it out. They are pros at this.

https://i.imgur.com/Qv5Ddb2.png

Probably no more recons into the eye today, getting dangerous with the intense core being so close to shore. So glad to hear they got out.

[Kohlecane]

I never seen a TC ingest high CAPE air into its core as well as Ian.
Its like he is on an IV drip of steroids

What are you using to see the cape values? I was looking at NAM on pivotal, wasn't sure if there is something more up to date TYIA

[TallyTracker]

Ian’s eye may not fully clear out on visible since there is enough upper level shear to keep sending the cirrus outflow over the eye. Doesn’t mean it’s not intensifying though. Should be negligible on IR imagery though.

[Kohlecane]

I never seen a TC ingest high CAPE air into its core as well as Ian.
Its like he is on an IV drip of steroids

What are you using to see the cape values? I was looking at NAM on pivotal, wasn't sure if there is something more up to date TYIA

[tolakram]

[AubreyStorm]

144 kt FL in the 'weaker' east side of Ian.

Cat 5

[Kohlecane]

I never seen a TC ingest high CAPE air into its core as well as Ian.
Its like he is on an IV drip of steroids

What are you using to see the cape values? I was looking at NAM on pivotal, wasn't sure if there is something more up to date TYIA

[GCANE]

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1575098076699643904

[tolakram]

There was never a question about dry air getting wrapped in, but all models show it happening after landfall. Really bad timing that will delay weakening.

[kevin]

Looks like NHC also kept it at 135 kt for the 9am EDT update. Not sure if we'll get anymore recon before landfall.

[aspen]

AF301 looks like it made it out. They are pros at this.

https://i.imgur.com/Qv5Ddb2.png

Probably no more recons into the eye today, getting dangerous with the intense core being so close to shore. So glad to hear they got out.

Then why were they able to fly into Michael right up until it made landfall? Is the topography different in this part of the coast?

[weeniepatrol]

[GCANE]

I never seen a TC ingest high CAPE air into its core as well as Ian.
Its like he is on an IV drip of steroids

What are you using to see the cape values? I was looking at NAM on pivotal, wasn't sure if there is something more up to date TYIA

Best is SPC

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanal ... sector=18#

[Tireman4]

I have a feeling this may be bad....

[HurricaneEnzo]

144 kt FL in the 'weaker' east side of Ian.

Cat 5

That's FL. Would probably be around 130kts surface. Not Cat 5 but it was the weakest spot in the eye so it is most certainly stronger and probably are Cat 5 surface winds somewhere.

[KirbyDude25]

Eye clearing out rapidly (again). Could result in a further pressure drop over the next few hours if it can keep its eye clean.

https://imgur.com/5HbzSQl

It's already dropping, extrap is down to 932.1 as of the AF plane's most recent pass. Wouldn't be surprised to see a 5 out of this soon