ATL: EARL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cheezyWXguy]

If I was a NHC forecaster, I would have strongly considered issuing TS watches for Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, Anguilla, Barbuda, and St. Kitts and Nevis due to a possibility of the system moving further south and west than expected.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

Outside of an actual landfall, which doesn’t appear to be on the table, I can’t see ts winds making it to land. All the ts winds are currently on the north side

[ScottNAtlanta]

For the last 5 hours it has stayed pretty much on the 19N latitude line. Looks like a some convection firing near the center in last couple of frames.

[msbee]

Absolutely a non event here on St Maarten

[Iceresistance]

We have takeoff from AF307 heading into Earl!

[LarryWx]

The models get this as far west as 67W, long of W PR Sun night. Only if it were to get to, say, 68W then would I see any concern about the early part of the models being really off. That's still 350 miles further west longitude than it is.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Recon reporting pressure down to 999mb and 40 kt winds near the center

[aspen]

Looking better after not checking on things in a few hours. The LLC has been sucked into some deep convection, and the wind/pressure field has become tighter according to recon. Maybe we’ll see a brief intensification phase before it gets decoupled again. There will probably be a lot of pulses up and down over the next few days before Earl starts recurving and interacting with the trough.

[IsabelaWeather]

If I was a NHC forecaster, I would have strongly considered issuing TS watches for Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, Anguilla, Barbuda, and St. Kitts and Nevis due to a possibility of the system moving further south and west than expected.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

Outside of an actual landfall, which doesn’t appear to be on the table, I can’t see ts winds making it to land. All the ts winds are currently on the north side

Yes, but watches are for the possibility of TS winds. I believe it would be better to have them up just in case, the TS winds are to the North and East and they extend pretty far out via the wind map at NHC.

[Iceresistance]

Earl is getting stronger, Recon is finding FL winds around 45 knots in the NW quadrant. (50 mph)

[cycloneye]

AL, 06, 2022090318, , BEST, 0, 191N, 628W, 40, 1001, TS

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bal062022.dat

[Iceresistance]

Earl is getting stronger rather quickly, Extrapolated pressure down to 997.9 MB.

Not just that, FL winds have reached 55 knots. This is suggesting that Earl is trying to develop a core already.


https://s4.gifyu.com/images/recon_AF307-0606A-EARL_zoom.png

[Landy]

Best track updated to 45kt/999mb.

AL, 06, 2022090318, , BEST, 0, 191N, 628W, 45, 999, TS,

[Category5Kaiju]

You know why I want Earl to recurve? So it can strengthen without posing a danger to land and spend more time over the abnormally warm Sargasso Sea, potentially adding a bunch of ACE so we won't be whining about it as badly anymore

[Iceresistance]

Joe B is thinking of Hurricane Earl on Monday.

 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1566123349083922435

[Sciencerocks]

[cycloneye]

Hurricane now expected.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 25.6N 65.6W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 27.7N 63.7W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

[Hammy]

Hurricane now expected.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 25.6N 65.6W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 27.7N 63.7W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

GFS may have scored a big win on this one with it's persistence

[Category5Kaiju]

Welp, seems somewhat likely that the speculations that this system would just dissipate (was it the Euro that thought that would happen?) are going to have a good chance of busting

[Nimbus]

The anticyclonic high altitude outflow means it has much better upper air environment.
And a deeper system will have a different model signature so tonights models should be interesting.

[Iceresistance]

The anticyclonic high altitude outflow means it has much better upper air environment.
And a deeper system will have a different model signature so tonights models should be interesting.

https://i.imgur.com/QkWVfeQ.gif

I've noticed it too, wind shear is not going to be an issue right now.