EPAC: JULIA - Remnants - Discussion

[GCANE]

Recon beginning its descent

[GCANE]

Couple more models jumping on redevelopment in the BoC.
Now have GFS, HMON, HWRF

[kevin]

First recon pass, extrapolated pressure 997.6 mb. Finally seems to have a good windfield near the center.

[aspen]

The SW quadrant still has pretty light winds. Until the wind field improves, this won’t intensify much. It does seem like the center has become better defined though.

[GCANE]

Looks like 995mb per drop

[tropicwatch]

Very impressive CDO this morning. Should see some decent pressure drops today.

 https://twitter.com/tropicwatch/status/1578715512506580999

[ElectricStorm]

Wow that's some serious convection...
Luckily it appears it's not as strong as it looks based on recon. We're now entering the final 24 hours before landfall where the models have shown this really getting going before landfall. Both HWRF and HMON get this down to the mid-low 970s at landfall. Hopefully it won't be able to get there

[GCANE]

Couple more models jumping on redevelopment in the BoC.
Now have GFS, HMON, HWRF

Adding Euro

[GCANE]

Couple more models jumping on redevelopment in the BoC.
Now have GFS, HMON, HWRF

Adding Euro

 https://twitter.com/MPalmerTWC/status/1578572011210649601

[GCANE]

Looks like if this redevelops in the BoC, it will be under a very broad anti-cyclone

[Hurricane2022]

 https://twitter.com/KeviShader/status/1578717876927676417

[aspen]

The center looks to have shifted again, closer to the center of the deepest convection.

[Hurricane Mike]

Wow look at that beautiful anti-cyclone over the top of her.

[jlauderdal]

Couple more models jumping on redevelopment in the BoC.
Now have GFS, HMON, HWRF

Adding Euro

 https://twitter.com/MPalmerTWC/status/1578572011210649601

Massive amt. of Autumn energy on the move, that trough is the real deal

[cheezyWXguy]

Julia looks to finally be making the switch from a ccc pattern to a classic cdo, from what I can tell. Looking at visible, it appears the towers are starting to rotate around a common center, as opposed what we saw last night with a single tower at the center of the burst. The latter suggests that strengthening is being hindered, while the former suggests the initial stages of carving out an eye. Still some weirdness with getting this storm stacked, but the windfield is looking more symmetrical than it did last night.

[wxman57]

Still not going to be a Gulf storm. You'd believe the GFS after Ian? Euro has a frontal wave developing in the SW Gulf. EXTREMELY strong wind shear in the Gulf and BoC. Looks like it crosses into the East Pac, cuts across the Gulf of Tehuantepec and dies in southern Mexico.

Recon indicates a 45 kt TS. Pressure rose a bit. Office can handle this one without me. Enjoying a 4-day weekend.

[GCANE]

Julia looks to finally be making the switch from a ccc pattern to a classic cdo, from what I can tell. Looking at visible, it appears the towers are starting to rotate around a common center, as opposed what we saw last night with a single tower at the center of the burst. The latter suggests that strengthening is being hindered, while the former suggests the initial stages of carving out an eye. Still some weirdness with getting this storm stacked, but the windfield is looking more symmetrical than it did last night.

IMHO, the fact it's not stacked is due to interactions with mid-level vorts in the EPAC's ITCZ

[GCANE]

60 mm/hr rain rate recorded by recon.
A lot of latent heat being built up.

[GCANE]

Flight level winds look to be picking up. Almost 60 knts peak

[cheezyWXguy]

Flight level winds look to be picking up. Almost 60 knts peak

And for once it’s not significantly removed from the center. This could finally be the center that sticks.