ATL: IAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Rail Dawg
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Re: ATL: IAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#4901 Postby Rail Dawg » Wed Sep 28, 2022 11:10 am

gailwarning wrote:
Rail Dawg wrote:Right now I would be in a parking lot garage in Ft Meyers. My truck was my survival. In it was everything I needed to survive two weeks if I couldn’t get out after a storm.

I would be one of those dummies walking around as the eyewall approaches. However I also know there is a very safe place for the truck so there are no worries. You know when it’s time to hightail it to the garage.

You know there is a monster just 10 hours away. Every moment you feel and see the changes. You still can drive away and not endure the misery of the aftermath but you are committed to a Cat 5 hurricane.

There are going to be many people who think that watching a video of a Cat 5 gives them understanding of the power. It absolutely does not. There is going to be a moment as the water rises and the Fists of God come raining down when they will realize they made a critical error.

I loved going into these. I don’t take pictures or video because of what I said… you have to be there to feel it. I wasn’t there for the clicks. We may lose some hurricane chasers in Ian because it’s downright foolish to chase a Cat 5 without several smaller storms under your belt.

This is a major disaster unfolding. Please keep the info rolling in.

Chuck


Please contact the Mike's Weather Page guy. He thinks he's a storm chaser now and I'm thinking he's gonna get himself in a world of hurt.


It depends on his prior experience of course but you may be right. I don’t know Mike.

It takes years to learn not only the weather element but the human element. The sheer panic ahead of the storm then dealing with the looting and other issues when people have lost everything.

Chasing means being a part of the aftermath. Getting out is incredibly difficult but if you do it right you will meet the first responders coming in. They will be very appreciative of the road-clearing you and the locals have done.

Again it takes years of practice to smartly chase a Cat 5. Most chasers I have seen are woefully unprepared.

Chuck
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Although I have been a hurricane forecaster since 1980 that only means I've been wrong lots of times.

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Re: ATL: IAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#4902 Postby Hurrilurker » Wed Sep 28, 2022 11:10 am

I definitely didn't expect borderline Cat 5 before landfall, but at the same time I never bought some of the the predictions that it was going to go from Cat 3 (ish) to severely sheared low end Cat 1 in the last 24 hours before landfall either.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#4903 Postby ConvergenceZone » Wed Sep 28, 2022 11:11 am

Man, I'm so worried about our member "Sanibel" here. They are talking like there may not be nothing left of the island due to the storm surge. I know he said he was leaving, but worried that he may not have a home left :(
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Re: ATL: IAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#4904 Postby Kazmit » Wed Sep 28, 2022 11:11 am

Image
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Re: ATL: IAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#4905 Postby ConvergenceZone » Wed Sep 28, 2022 11:12 am

Hurrilurker wrote:I definitely didn't expect borderline Cat 5 before landfall, but at the same time I never bought some of the the predictions that it was going to go from Cat 3 (ish) to severely sheared low end Cat 1 in the last 24 hours before landfall either.


I didn't either! I think this is the last time I ever pay attention to model forecasted intensity. I mean, I know they usually aren't that accurate, but even yesterday most models weren't predicting a almost Cat 5 cane....
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Re: ATL: IAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#4906 Postby cheezyWXguy » Wed Sep 28, 2022 11:12 am

There are now believable (imo) velocity bins exceeding 200mph on the western side, and they are occurring relatively frequently. Ive looked at every Atlantic hurricane within radar range on velocity since the start of 2017, and these are the most extreme readings I've seen. Yes, including those you're thinking of. Not that it matters beyond academics at this point, but the big question is, will recon corroborate these winds aloft and are these winds efficiently mixing to the surface?
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Re: ATL: IAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#4907 Postby JPmia » Wed Sep 28, 2022 11:13 am

ConvergenceZone wrote:Man, I'm so worried about our member "Sanibel" here. They are talking like there may not be nothing left of the island due to the storm surge. I know he said he was leaving, but worried that he may not have a home left :(


He just posted above.. evacuated and posting like all of us. Those Cape Coral Chiquita cams are like watching a raging river .. storm surge coming in powerfully now.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#4908 Postby Jelmergraaff » Wed Sep 28, 2022 11:14 am

Jelmergraaff wrote:I am actually wondering why the NHC shows either so little strengthening in the GOM or such a strong system when it moves away from Cuba into the Gulf. NHC has it at 115kt/130mph at +24h and 120kt/140mph at +36h. However, if you look at some models like HMON and HWRF, they're indicating an increase in sustained winds over the SE Gulf of respectively and 37kt/41mph and 20kt/23mph. On the other hand, the NHC forecast lies well above the model output of those models around Cuba.

Is there a chance that the NHC is underestimating the intensification in the SE Gulf? Or do they just think it'll peak earlier? I don't exactly know when shear starts to pick up, but until then RI seems still possible to me.


I already had a gut feeling 1 - 2 days ago... :cry:
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Re: ATL: IAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#4909 Postby JPmia » Wed Sep 28, 2022 11:14 am

Hurricane Watch for Lake Okeechobee?
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Re: ATL: IAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#4910 Postby dhweather » Wed Sep 28, 2022 11:15 am

Sanibel wrote:Ian moving in for the kill now on Sanibel...Hard eyewall hammering my house as I type while safely evacuated...We have a screwed and glued pyramidal tin roof that should give Ian a challenge if he doesn't wear it down with duration...



Best thing I've read today - glad you evacuated!!
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ATL: IAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#4911 Postby jasons2k » Wed Sep 28, 2022 11:15 am

Sanibel wrote:Ian moving in for the kill now on Sanibel...Hard eyewall hammering my house as I type while safely evacuated...We have a screwed and glued pyramidal tin roof that should give Ian a challenge if he doesn't wear it down with duration...

You are definitely in my thoughts and I am hoping for the best for your place. So thankful you evacuated to safety.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#4912 Postby Abdullah » Wed Sep 28, 2022 11:16 am

Large branches on mango tree were just swaying for a gust here - Gotta be a solid 30 - 40 mph
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Re: ATL: IAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#4913 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 28, 2022 11:16 am

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Re: ATL: IAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#4914 Postby Category5Kaiju » Wed Sep 28, 2022 11:17 am

This is such a surreal moment. We're basically seeing the last of a city/population center that will be forever changed within the next several hours. As much as I love tracking hurricanes, it's moments like these that really make me feel very sorrowful, and what's worse is this feels like a "yet another" moment, given we've had so many nasty landfalling hurricanes the past several years.

Matthew
Harvey
Irma
Maria
Florence
Michael
Dorian
Laura
Eta
Iota
Ida
Fiona
Ian
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Re: ATL: IAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#4915 Postby tolakram » Wed Sep 28, 2022 11:17 am

This was dry just 15 minutes ago. (saved loop, not live)

Image
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Re: ATL: IAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#4916 Postby kevin » Wed Sep 28, 2022 11:18 am

Recon is really flooring it right now, flying at 340 kt/hr. Should be inside Ian's eye within ~45 minutes.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#4917 Postby ConvergenceZone » Wed Sep 28, 2022 11:18 am

JPmia wrote:
ConvergenceZone wrote:Man, I'm so worried about our member "Sanibel" here. They are talking like there may not be nothing left of the island due to the storm surge. I know he said he was leaving, but worried that he may not have a home left :(


He just posted above.. evacuated and posting like all of us. Those Cape Coral Chiquita cams are like watching a raging river .. storm surge coming in powerfully now.


Oh I missed. There are so many pages I can't keep up! Glad he's in a safe area though! thanks for the update
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Re: ATL: IAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#4918 Postby bjackrian » Wed Sep 28, 2022 11:19 am

Naples tidal gauge currently +5.5 ft over MHHW. Previous high for that gauge was +4.25 ft during Irma. Still rising steeply.

https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/inundationdb/inundation.html?id=8725110&units=standard&bdate=20220927&edate=20220929&timezone=LST/LDT&datum=MHHW&interval=6&action=
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Re: ATL: IAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#4919 Postby Rail Dawg » Wed Sep 28, 2022 11:20 am

Sanibel you have been a huge help over the years.

Especially with Irma and Michael.

Hope your home makes it through this. It appears many of us are rooting for you. Please keep us posted. Glad you’re not there. You were smart to leave.

Chuck
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Although I have been a hurricane forecaster since 1980 that only means I've been wrong lots of times.

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Re: ATL: IAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#4920 Postby Texas Snowman » Wed Sep 28, 2022 11:20 am

Unfortunately, from my perspective, I would have to say that this is pretty much a worst case scenario for Sanibel Island and Captiva Island. I fear much of these two islands could be destroyed, particularly along the beaches. Just gut wrenching….


 https://twitter.com/jacob_feuer/status/1575145032264327169


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