ATL: FIONA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[aspen]

I think next pass by the AF recon should find a better defined CoC and lower SLP as convection continues to re-fire right near it.

https://i.imgur.com/qK05SIm.jpg

They’re flying away from it now, for some reason. Maybe readjusting their position or about to head home.

[Teban54]

Shrimp?

[tropicwatch]

I think next pass by the AF recon should find a better defined CoC and lower SLP as convection continues to re-fire right near it.

https://i.imgur.com/qK05SIm.jpg

They’re flying away from it now, for some reason. Maybe readjusting their position or about to head home.

Think they are probably working on some equipment issues before heading into the center.

[NDG]

I dont see how Puerto Rico would get direct impacts. Looks to me like it would have to move NW now.

12z TVCN is now right over the SW tip of PR.

I understand that but I'm looking at current conditions. Strength of storm, etc.. Looks to me it will be more like D.R. It would need to move NW now.

Most of the action is on the eastern quadrant, even if it was not to make a direct hit on PR.

[IsabelaWeather]

12z TVCN is now right over the SW tip of PR.

I understand that but I'm looking at current conditions. Strength of storm, etc.. Looks to me it will be more like D.R. It would need to move NW now.

Most of the action is on the eastern quadrant, even if it was not to make a direct hit on PR.

PR is under a hurricane watch, they definitely think it will strengthen as it approaches the island.

Shear seems to be less, once it gets its LLC developed again I believe it could strengthen at a pretty good clip.

[wxman57]

Curious that none of the northern Lesser Antilles reported any sustained wind over 30 kts overnight. Guadeloupe (TFFF) reported 30kts gusting 50kts at 06Z, but 20 kts or less after that report. You can use the link below and go back to yesterday, or you can type in a stations 4-letter ICAO and check the obs over the past 24 hrs or more.

https://aviationweather.gov/metar

Well I would think St John's Island to the north of Guadeloupe probably had higher sustained winds but they stopped reporting after 9 PM.

You mean St John’s the capital of Antigua?

Yes, Antigua. But the weak center passed right over Guadeloupe and the airport didn't record sustained wind above 30 kts in the heavy squalls to the east of the center. Weaker does mean farther west, but not to the Gulf or Florida, to the eastern DR vs. PR. Fiona will likely be ET by Newfound next Saturday.

[Iceresistance]

Shrimp?
https://i.postimg.cc/vZ6Q80k9/goes16-ir-07-L-202209170825.gif

Okay, that's a serious warning sign that she could RI. A very intense convective band wrapping into the suspected LLC could quickly build the core.

[Iceresistance]

ADT is way too high for this

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.0
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 17 SEP 2022 Time : 132020 UTC
Lat : 16:32:45 N Lon : 64:02:40 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.6 / 992mb / 57kts


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.6 3.7 3.8

Center Temp : -41.9C Cloud Region Temp : -63.7C

Scene Type : EMBEDDED CENTER CLOUD REGION

[NDG]

Recon’s latest fix finds its CoC further north from its last fix, PR is still at play and should prepare for a possible direct hit tomorrow on the SW tip of the Island, IMO.

[IsabelaWeather]

ADT is way too high for this

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.0
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 17 SEP 2022 Time : 132020 UTC
Lat : 16:32:45 N Lon : 64:02:40 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.6 / 992mb / 57kts


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.6 3.7 3.8

Center Temp : -41.9C Cloud Region Temp : -63.7C

Scene Type : EMBEDDED CENTER CLOUD REGION

Could it be because the LLC split into several before consolidating into a different, stronger LLC in the near future it is weaker than expected? Its looking like its developing on IR but who knows until we get more data.

[tropicwatch]

Recon’s latest fix finds its CoC further north from its last fix, PR is still at play and should prepare for a possible direct hit tomorrow on the SW tip of the Island, IMO.

Noticed the northward jog but a pressure of 1010mb's? I find that a little suspect.

[cheezyWXguy]

Recon’s latest fix finds its CoC further north from its last fix, PR is still at play and should prepare for a possible direct hit tomorrow on the SW tip of the Island, IMO.

Noticed the northward jog but a pressure of 1010mb's? I find that a little suspect.

Recon fixes shouldn’t be used to determine exact movement, especially in weaker systems like this. The center is currently broad and pretty diffuse, there are likely multiple areas of sufficient wind shift to qualify as a “center” at the moment. We aren’t gonna know much about exactly where it’s heading until it gets it’s act together a bit

[BobHarlem]

Both the 2am and 8am intermediate advisories were 3/10ths of a degree south of their primary advisory forecast positions (which makes the track map look off), why is this trend of being off too far north happening. This has happened before in this area, but I can't recall which storm did this.

[cheezyWXguy]

It’s pretty obvious why adt is overestimating, the convective organization is impressive despite the disorganized llc. If the bursting over the center continues today I think a hurricane for PR is a decent bet. It shouldn’t take long in these conditions for the llc to get sorted out

[drezee]

 https://twitter.com/andretrotter/status/1571148240011272198

[tolakram]

Starting to look like it's getting organized.

saved loop

live floater: https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=meso-meso1-02-96-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

[caneman]

Starting to look like it's getting organized.

saved loop
https://imgur.com/mTSW9Ai

live floater: https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=meso-meso1-02-96-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

Unless I'm missing something..... GFS model was way too far North and for other models to verify it wold need to move NW now. Wonder if we will see more westward in the new models

[NDG]

https://twitter.com/andretrotter/status/1571148240011272198?t=IGp02B6URlLup_3jR1Opkg

Is now tilted S to N.

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1571135814402469889

[TallyTracker]

Fiona reminds me of fancy looking car that has a crappy engine. IR looks impressive, but looking under the hood reveals a different story. Doesn’t mean that the storm won’t become a hurricane, but I think RI is unlikely with such a disheveled circulation structure.

[NDG]

Good call by the NHC to upgrade warnings for PR to a Hurricane Warning.

 https://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/1571151001947885571