ATL: FIONA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[skyline385]

Some bands starting to build up possibly?




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[KWT]

Good call by the NHC to upgrade warnings for PR to a Hurricane Warning.

https://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/1571151001947885571

Any hurricane winds are probably going to be located in the Northern section that is likely to hit PR even if it does end up missing to the SW, so if it does end up getting into the 65-75kts range you'd imagine sustained winds close to hurricane force would be possible, particularly for the far SW of the island.

[kevin]

Starting to look like it's getting organized.

saved loop
https://imgur.com/mTSW9Ai

live floater: https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=meso-meso1-02-96-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

Unless I'm missing something..... GFS model was way too far North and for other models to verify it wold need to move NW now. Wonder if we will see more westward in the new models

Here are the positions where Fiona should've been according to yesterday's 12z operational models (coordinates are for 15z, 09/17). I won't go into much more detail since this is the discussion thread and not the model one, but indeed the actual position of Fiona is further south than where most models had it.

GFS = 17.5N, 64.2W
ECMWF = 17.3N, 64.5W
ICON = 16.9N, 64.3W
CMC = 17.3N, 64.9W

HWRF = 17.1N, 63.5W
HMON = 16.7N, 63.6W
HAPS = 17.1N, 63.4W

Actual Fiona locataion (current NHC fix) = 16.3N, 63.5W
Actual Fiona location (first center found by recon) = 15.6N, 62.9W (5 hours ago)
Actual Fiona location (2nd center, further north) = 16.1N, 63.4W (3 hours ago)

[NDG]

Some bands starting to build up possibly?

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220917/b9772e4d276fb200ff28793d6c21633e.jpg


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Clearly seen on radar.

[tolakram]

Saved loop. Time is EDT.

[NDG]

Guadeloupe was hit hard by the heavy rains.

 https://twitter.com/DrJeffMasters/status/1571148948609601536

[skyline385]

Guadeloupe was hit hard by the heavy rains.

https://twitter.com/DrJeffMasters/status/1571148948609601536

Talking about rains, I was checking the precipitation plots and both GFS and Euro predict up to 24-28" of rain for PR the next 2-3 days. Combine that with the CBs seen last night and those numbers may just end up verifying.

[NDG]

I have a bad feeling for PR if Fiona takes the opportunity get better organized at the surface this afternoon.

[ScottNAtlanta]

They are already getting pressure of 1005mb and they are not that close to the center yet. Still showing winds from ESE

[Spacecoast]

Verification(s) for FIONA thus far......


I'm surprised how well UKX is performing.

[skyline385]

Looking better and better every frame

[Teban54]

Guadeloupe was hit hard by the heavy rains.

https://twitter.com/DrJeffMasters/status/1571148948609601536

This is why you never write off "just" a mid-grade TS.

[cheezyWXguy]

Verification(s) for FIONA thus far......
https://i.ibb.co/SBB1Rs1/cdC.jpg

I'm surprised how well UKX is performing.

It actually kind of makes sense, the ukmet has an unwavering left bias, and in this particular case, it ended up working out lol

[caneman]

Anyone have the latest UKMET run?

[NDG]

Good news is that it is still not vertically aligned, no pressure drop.

F302 0707A FIONA HDOB 39 20220917
152700 1639N 06329W 8434 01532 0052 +173 +162 109025 027 035 000 00
152730 1636N 06330W 8434 01527 0053 +166 //// 109025 025 035 000 01
152800 1635N 06331W 8433 01529 0051 +168 +164 108022 024 033 000 00
152830 1633N 06331W 8433 01525 0055 +156 //// 107018 021 033 001 05
152900 1632N 06332W 8430 01530 //// +150 //// 115012 015 032 011 01
152930 1630N 06332W 8442 01514 0052 +156 //// 240008 016 031 003 05
153000 1629N 06333W 8437 01526 0054 +164 //// 257015 016 025 002 01
153030 1627N 06333W 8440 01524 0051 +173 +169 269011 014 020 000 03
153100 1626N 06334W 8435 01531 0051 +180 +161 285013 014 019 000 03
153130 1625N 06335W 8436 01532 0054 +178 +157 290014 015 024 000 00
153200 1624N 06336W 8434 01536 0056 +176 +155 290013 014 023 000 00
153230 1623N 06338W 8438 01531 0057 +176 +159 295015 016 020 000 00
153300 1622N 06339W 8435 01537 0058 +177 +162 290016 016 019 000 00
153330 1621N 06340W 8434 01539 0062 +175 +164 286017 019 018 000 03
153400 1620N 06341W 8436 01538 0063 +175 +164 289018 019 017 000 03
153430 1618N 06342W 8435 01541 0064 +175 +165 296019 020 019 000 03
153500 1617N 06343W 8433 01543 0064 +180 +158 300021 023 021 000 00
153530 1616N 06345W 8434 01544 0066 +178 +158 300022 023 021 000 00
153600 1615N 06346W 8433 01546 0064 +185 +154 303022 023 018 000 03
153630 1614N 06347W 8433 01548 0065 +186 +146 302023 023 019 000 00

[NDG]

Anyone have the latest UKMET run?

Why bother with the UKMET, it has been a horrible model so far this season, worst than the CMC.

Edit: Latest 06z UKMET was almost a spit image of the Euro through its 60 hr forecast, clipping SW Puerto Rico and eastern DR.

[Sciencerocks]

[caneman]

Anyone have the latest UKMET run?

Why bother with the UKMET, it has been a horrible model so far this season, w
orst than the CMC.

See above... its performed well long range on this storm and I look at each storm individually.

[skyline385]

Anyone have the latest UKMET run?

Last night's UKMET had it 996mb over DR, completely dodging PR. This isnt the model thread so not posting the run here.

[caneman]

Anyone have the latest UKMET run?

Last night's UKMET had it 996mb over DR, completely dodging PR. This isnt the model thread so no posting the run here.

Can some please post the link on the model thread then. I'm not getting into modeling war or talk. I track each system individually and I give all models credance. Better yet, I'll go there to the model thread for the request