ATL: IAN - Models

[PTrackerLA]

Take away the stall and it slams SE LA this run. Reminded me so much of that K storm track wise in the Gulf until the NE hook. This is downright scary.

[skyline385]

Thank goodness none of the models are forecasting this to become a cat 5. I'm thinking high end Cat 2, MAYBE Cat 3 at landfall(If it hits the USA that is), but we don't know how bad the shear that is forecasted in the gulf will be at this point......

Cant really base off an intensity estimate off a global model, those simply don't have the resolutions to deal with RI'ing systems as the eye is small. Wait for the hurricane models to get into the Gulf.

Here is last year's NHC verification, just a huge difference in skill between hurricane and global models

[ConvergenceZone]

Thank goodness none of the models are forecasting this to become a cat 5. I'm thinking high end Cat 2, MAYBE Cat 3 at landfall(If it hits the USA that is), but we don't know how bad the shear that is forecasted in the gulf will be at this point......

A large, high end 2 or 3 weakening at landfall unfortunately doesn't do much to mitigate storm surge. Opal absolutely wrecked my area with a very similar approach after being picked up by a deep trough.

Oh I totally agree. I'm just saying that regardless, a cat 5 is has more potential disaster than a cat 2 or cat 3 storm does, such as storm surge height, more extensive wind damage etc...I'm sure if you ask anyone, they would much rather see a Cat 2 than a Cat 5....

[InfernoFlameCat]

Almost no models forecast a cat 5, especially with an invest. They don’t forecast it until it happens in most cases. Cat 5s are elusive.

[AtlanticWind]

Hard to believe this system would take almost 2 weeks to make landfall in the upper gulf , thats why I question
the GFS solution somewhat.

But stranger things have happened.

[ElectricStorm]

Thank goodness none of the models are forecasting this to become a cat 5. I'm thinking high end Cat 2, MAYBE Cat 3 at landfall(If it hits the USA that is), but we don't know how bad the shear that is forecasted in the gulf will be at this point......

A large, high end 2 or 3 weakening at landfall unfortunately doesn't do much to mitigate storm surge. Opal absolutely wrecked my area with a very similar approach after being picked up by a deep trough.

Oh I totally agree. I'm just saying that regardless, a cat 5 is has more potential disaster than a cat 2 or cat 3 storm does, such as storm surge height, more extensive wind damage etc...I'm sure if you ask anyone, they would much rather see a Cat 2 than a Cat 5....

You can't always base impact off category number. You could have a large weakening Cat 3 produce a Cat 5 level storm surge. Heck look what Fiona just did to PR as a Cat 1. The only thing the category numbers are based off on are winds, everything else can vary depending on rainfall, size, forward speed, etc.

[pcolaman]

Watch it still hit the panhandle

It actually did.

Basically it stalled out in the Gulf, then followed a sharper angle - a day later - than the previous run. I think a storm that stalls in the Gulf would likely be weaker though due to upwelling.

Not necessarily, The waters are very warm very deep in the Gulf. In order for the upwellings to take place it would need to be stationary for a few days for this to happen.

[toad strangler]

Hard to believe this system would take almost 2 weeks to make landfall in the upper gulf , thats why I question
the GFS solution somewhat.

But stranger things have happened.

I don’t buy it at all. I don’t see a early autumn cane stalling like this. It will be much more progressive IMO. I don’t care where it ends up but this ain’t stalling like that in the GOM.

Happy Hour GFS lol

[SFLcane]

Euro vs GFS.. who will give in first? One of them is wrong.

[cheezyWXguy]

Hard to believe this system would take almost 2 weeks to make landfall in the upper gulf , thats why I question
the GFS solution somewhat.

But stranger things have happened.

I don’t buy it at all. I don’t see a early autumn cane stalling like this. It will be much more progressive IMO. I don’t care where it ends up but this ain’t stalling like that in the GOM.

Happy Hour GFS lol

Same, I don’t buy this run. Although this system is still ill-defined, the gfs doesn’t initialize it correctly (1007mb low inland over SA). This appears to lead to complicated evolution with multiple centers as it traverses the Caribbean, ultimately delaying development. This seems to result in even faster west movement and decreased influence from the trough, allowing it to get unreasonably far west. Unless I see enough to the contrary, I’m sticking to my guns at the moment that the 12z gfs track is probably the western bound of reasonable solutions, unless the synoptic pattern changes significantly in the coming days (which it very well could at that range)

[cycloneye]

From 8 PM TWO.

An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is currently surveying
the system, and data from this mission will be assimilated into
tonight's forecast models.

[Spacecoast]

Here is the euro interacting with the trough...
The attraction is there, but it's just a 'kiss'..(no real connection)

[skyline385]

Hard to believe this system would take almost 2 weeks to make landfall in the upper gulf , thats why I question
the GFS solution somewhat.

But stranger things have happened.

Its taking a longer western path so it takes more time to landfall, nothing strange in that. Both the GFS and western Euro runs (check 12Z Sept 20) slow down in the Gulf because of the ridge building over Texas. An eastern run doesn't feel this effect because it is being pulled by the trough.

[skyline385]

Here is the euro interacting with the trough...
The attraction is there, but it's just a 'kiss'..(no real connection)
https://i.ibb.co/kDvdvMt/ecmwf-z500-mslp-atl-fh144-216.gif

Note how it immediately slows down and almost stalls as soon as the trough connection breaks, there's the reason for the fast Euro runs.

[caneman]

Very unusual for the GFS to be so consistent..
Trend of last 10 runs:

https://i.ibb.co/X8jyNhK/gfs-z500-mslp-watl-fh192-trend.gif

The GFS has been extremely consistent with the general intensity, but not at all in location, this is a tough forecast on location.

Yep the GFS hasn't been consistent all, it keeps moving west so next will be Cancun

[Dean4Storms]

I’d bet the ECM comes west, that 12z will miss the trough if it’s weaker in the Carib. And or further south. Not much there to play with.

[ronjon]

Euro vs GFS.. who will give in first? One of them is wrong.

Or they're both wrong...

[skyline385]

GEFS with a west shift

[AutoPenalti]

Euro and GFS may continue shifting west here. GEFS with a shift west.

[Spacecoast]

18z GEFS..