ATL: NICOLE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[fsucory08]

Kids nightmare, cancel then un-cancel school, they aren't going to do that and the trend is north but no way is Palm Bay in the clear.

I'm in PSL and even a slight shift back south puts us right back under the gun so to speak. Curious to see the runs for the rest of the day

Landfall is pinpointed between PSL and Palm Bay…

The trends on the models keep shifting more toward the Palm Bay solution. Could pass just to the SW and get a lot less than a direct hit or being to the NE like yesterday.

[Michele B]

I did mention earlier that the possibility of this being further south in the short term meant a bit less of a SW turn in the longer turn.

That would be ideal. How fast is her forward speed?

Is it possible the front could pick it up sooner and it just brushes the east coast and leaves us in the middle alone?

[skillz305]

I'm in PSL and even a slight shift back south puts us right back under the gun so to speak. Curious to see the runs for the rest of the day

Landfall is pinpointed between PSL and Palm Bay…

The trends on the models keep shifting more toward the Palm Bay solution. Could pass just to the SW and get a lot less than a direct hit or being to the NE like yesterday.

Windshield wiper effect. Us in the treasure coast better prepare because we are getting this storm.

[eastcoastFL]

Landfall is pinpointed between PSL and Palm Bay…

The trends on the models keep shifting more toward the Palm Bay solution. Could pass just to the SW and get a lot less than a direct hit or being to the NE like yesterday.

Windshield wiper effect. Us in the treasure coast better prepare because we are getting this storm.

It's certainly possible but looking less likely now.

[cycloneye]

SSD dvorak says Nicole has transitioned to tropical.

https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/storms/NICOLE.html

TXNT27 KNES 081225
TCSNTL

A. 17L (NICOLE)

B. 08/1130Z

C. 27.7N

D. 72.0W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. T3.0/3.0

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...THE SYSTEM HAS TRANSITIONED FROM SUBTROPICAL TO
TROPICAL. 6/10 BANDING RESULTS IN A DT OF 3.0. THE MET AND PT WERE
UNAVAILABLE BECAUSE THE SYSTEM WAS SUBTROPICAL 24 HOURS AGO. THE FT IS
BASED ON THE DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...BERTALAN

[fsucory08]

06z Euro/GFS 42 hours out are in the exact same location. The difference starts at hours 48. GFS takes Nicole due west into PBC/MC line and Euro takes Nicole WNW into Northern SLC/Indian River

[GCANE]

Those outflow boundaries will cool off the boundary layer which in turn pulls heat out of the ocean.
Should start to really look good this afternoon into dusk.

[NDG]

06z Euro/GFS 42 hours out are in the exact same location. The difference starts at hours 48. GFS takes Nicole due west into PBC/MC line and Euro takes Nicole WNW into Northern SLC/Indian River

While the latest tropical models continue their shift northward, I would expect the NHC to at least keep the forecasted track the same if not move it a little further north.

[underthwx]

Landfall is pinpointed between PSL and Palm Bay…

The trends on the models keep shifting more toward the Palm Bay solution. Could pass just to the SW and get a lot less than a direct hit or being to the NE like yesterday.

Windshield wiper effect. Us in the treasure coast better prepare because we are getting this storm.

And that is what yall need to do, prepare, I read yesterday this will be a prolonged event? In reference to the front, what is the timing of its passage? I hope it will scoot Nicole out to sea quickly...

[eastcoastFL]

I'm in PSL and even a slight shift back south puts us right back under the gun so to speak. Curious to see the runs for the rest of the day

Landfall is pinpointed between PSL and Palm Bay…

The trends on the models keep shifting more toward the Palm Bay solution. Could pass just to the SW and get a lot less than a direct hit or being to the NE like yesterday.

The spread now is more Palm Bay north to Cocoa.

[fsucory08]

I'm curious what the upcoming 12z will tell us. This SW turn is going to determine landfall point.

[NDG]

Saved loop.

[underthwx]

Thought I would share this excerpt from AccuWeather-

"Hurricane watch issued in Florida as Nicole tracks toward storm-weary state
By Mary Gilbert, AccuWeather meteorologist & Alex Sosnowski, AccuWeather senior meteorologist
Published Nov. 7, 2022 12:33 AM PHT | Updated Nov. 8, 2022 8:52 PM PHT
A hurricane watch was issued along the eastern coast of Florida on Monday as Subtropical Storm Nicole churned across the Atlantic and showed signs of further strengthening as it tracked toward the storm-weary state. AccuWeather meteorologists expect this sprawling storm to take a turn and hit Florida’s east coast — as a hurricane — later this week before it takes a run up the Eastern Seaboard.On Monday, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis declared a state of emergency in anticipation of Nicole's arrival.The Sunshine State faces long-duration impacts from pounding surf, strong winds and torrential rain, and as a result, AccuWeather forecasters have rated Nicole a 1 on the AccuWeather RealImpact™ Scale for Hurricanes. This scale takes into account the effects of storm surge, coastal erosion, flooding, wind and economic damage, while the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind scale accounts for wind, intensity only.
Nicole will strengthen into a hurricane prior to making landfall along the central Florida coast early Thursday. Impacts could be severe along Florida’s Atlantic coast and over the Florida Peninsula in general."

[GCANE]

Looking at latest GFS UL conditions.
Shear looks low for Nicole all the way to Grand Bahama.
From there to the FL coast, shear picks up quite a bit.
Keep your fingers crossed.

[Sanibel]

Hurricane cyclogenesis IMO...

Hasn't made WSW turn yet...

[underthwx]

Hurricane cyclogenesis IMO...

Hasn't made WSW turn yet...

Good morning Sanibel, and everyone...does my heart good to see you here...

[TallyTracker]

The pressure wind relationship with Nicole is likely to be different than with most tropical cyclones. I’m thinking the pressure will need to drop to around 980 mb for Nicole to become a hurricane due to size and non-tropical origins.

[Category5Kaiju]

The fact that we are tracking this storm alone is absolutely fascinating. Quite frankly, I have no clue what to expect from Nicole. Sure, it could be a TS or low-end hurricane when it presumably hits Florida, but at the same time, this storm is also more intense than what many models have had it as at this point, and it seems to already be a TS, if not almost there...so it might also be ahead of schedule?

Whatever the case, it seems to be headed for the Florida East Coast, which as we all know, has population centers lined up along the coast (it's not just Miami ). The fact that this November system actually has a decent shot of impacting Florida's East Coast should warrant some awareness and caution.

[tolakram]

long IR loop from ST to Tropical

[GCANE]

 https://twitter.com/CBCBARBADOS/status/1589977078719733760