WPAC: HINNAMNOR - Post-Tropical

[doomhaMwx]

Disappointingly, Japan won't be sending recon into Hinnamnor according to a professor from the University of Ryukyus who joins the flights.

[ElectricStorm]

Disappointingly, Japan won't be sending recon into Hinnamnor according to a professor from the University of Ryukyus who joins the flights.

What a shame... this could have been a golden opportunity to get an idea of what one of these monsters is like

[Hurricane2022]

Disappointingly, Japan won't be sending recon into Hinnamnor according to a professor from the University of Ryukyus who joins the flights.

For why reason?

[mrbagyo]

How about KMA and Taiwan (Dotstar)?

[Hayabusa]

Latest UKMET

[Ed_2001]

ATL hurricane vibes.

Looks like it made an previous attempt at opening up an eye a few hours ago, which has since filled in. But the CDO has gotten more rounded since then, won’t be much longer…

[Kingarabian]

Easily a Cat.2 now. Very INTENSE eyewall.

[mrbagyo]

[Landy]

JTWC now has Hinnamnor as a typhoon.

12W HINNAMNOR 220829 0600 27.5N 143.3E WPAC 70 981

Feeling this might be an underestimate...

EDIT: Overridden to 75kt.

12W HINNAMNOR 220829 0600 27.4N 143.2E WPAC 75 978

[Yellow Evan]

This is a T5.0. SAB and JTWC are still playing catch up Dvorak wise.

[mrbagyo]

1005 hpa in Chichijima and falling

AAXX 29064 47971 17/64 /0412 10289 20273 30042 40051 58036 69951 76160 555 00317

[mrbagyo]

Hinnamnor has been upgraded to typhoon status by both JMA and JTWC

JTWC
12W HINNAMNOR 220829 0600 27.4N 143.2E WPAC 75 978

JMA


T2211(Hinnamnor)
Issued at 2022/08/29 06:45 UTC
Analysis at 08/29 06 UTC
Grade TY
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N27°25′ (27.4°)
E143°10′ (143.2°)
Direction and speed of movement W 30 km/h (17 kt)
Central pressure 975 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed near center 35 m/s (65 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50 m/s (95 kt)
Radius of 50-kt wind area 75 km (40 NM)
Radius of 30-kt wind area NE330 km (180 NM)
SW165 km (90 NM)
Estimate for 08/29 07 UTC
Grade TY
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N27°25′ (27.4°)
E142°55′ (142.9°)
Direction and speed of movement W 30 km/h (17 kt)
Central pressure 975 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed near center 35 m/s (65 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50 m/s (95 kt)
Radius of storm warning area 75 km (40 NM)
Radius of 30-kt wind area NE330 km (180 NM)
SW165 km (90 NM)
Forecast for 08/29 09 UTC
Grade TY
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N27°20′ (27.3°)
E142°10′ (142.2°)
Direction and speed of movement W 35 km/h (18 kt)
Central pressure 975 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed near center 35 m/s (65 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50 m/s (95 kt)
Radius of probability circle 55 km (29 NM)
Radius of storm warning area 135 km (74 NM)
Forecast for 08/29 12 UTC
Grade TY
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N27°10′ (27.2°)
E141°10′ (141.2°)
Direction and speed of movement W 35 km/h (18 kt)
Central pressure 975 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed near center 35 m/s (65 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50 m/s (95 kt)
Radius of probability circle 60 km (32 NM)
Radius of storm warning area 145 km (77 NM)
Forecast for 08/29 15 UTC
Grade TY
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N27°10′ (27.2°)
E140°20′ (140.3°)
Direction and speed of movement W 30 km/h (16 kt)
Central pressure 970 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed near center 35 m/s (70 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50 m/s (100 kt)
Radius of probability circle 65 km (36 NM)
Radius of storm warning area 160 km (86 NM)
Forecast for 08/29 18 UTC
Grade TY
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N27°05′ (27.1°)
E139°20′ (139.3°)
Direction and speed of movement W 35 km/h (18 kt)
Central pressure 970 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed near center 35 m/s (70 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50 m/s (100 kt)
Radius of probability circle 75 km (40 NM)
Radius of storm warning area 165 km (90 NM)
Forecast for 08/29 21 UTC
Grade TY
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N27°00′ (27.0°)
E138°25′ (138.4°)
Direction and speed of movement W 30 km/h (16 kt)
Central pressure 970 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed near center 35 m/s (70 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50 m/s (100 kt)
Radius of probability circle 80 km (44 NM)
Radius of storm warning area 185 km (99 NM)
Forecast for 08/30 00 UTC
Grade TY
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N26°55′ (26.9°)
E137°25′ (137.4°)
Direction and speed of movement W 35 km/h (18 kt)
Central pressure 965 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed near center 40 m/s (75 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55 m/s (105 kt)
Radius of probability circle 90 km (48 NM)
Radius of storm warning area 190 km (105 NM)
Forecast for 08/30 03 UTC
Grade TY
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N26°50′ (26.8°)
E136°25′ (136.4°)
Direction and speed of movement W 35 km/h (18 kt)
Central pressure 965 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed near center 40 m/s (75 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55 m/s (105 kt)
Radius of probability circle 95 km (52 NM)
Radius of storm warning area 200 km (110 NM)
Forecast for 08/30 06 UTC
Grade TY
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N26°40′ (26.7°)
E135°30′ (135.5°)
Direction and speed of movement W 30 km/h (17 kt)
Central pressure 965 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed near center 40 m/s (75 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55 m/s (105 kt)
Radius of probability circle 105 km (57 NM)
Radius of storm warning area 210 km (115 NM)
Forecast for 08/31 06 UTC
Grade TY
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N25°10′ (25.2°)
E130°05′ (130.1°)
Direction and speed of movement WSW 25 km/h (13 kt)
Central pressure 950 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed near center 45 m/s (85 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60 m/s (120 kt)
Radius of probability circle 220 km (120 NM)
Radius of storm warning area 370 km (200 NM)
Forecast for 09/01 06 UTC
Grade TY
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N23°10′ (23.2°)
E127°00′ (127.0°)
Direction and speed of movement WSW 15 km/h (9 kt)
Central pressure 940 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed near center 45 m/s (90 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 65 m/s (130 kt)
Radius of probability circle 330 km (180 NM)
Radius of storm warning area 500 km (270 NM)
Forecast for 09/02 06 UTC
Grade TY
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N22°30′ (22.5°)
E126°00′ (126.0°)
Direction and speed of movement SW Slow
Central pressure 935 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed near center 50 m/s (95 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70 m/s (135 kt)
Radius of probability circle 480 km (260 NM)
Radius of storm warning area 650 km (350 NM)
Forecast for 09/03 06 UTC
Grade TY
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N23°55′ (23.9°)
E125°50′ (125.8°)
Direction and speed of movement N Slow
Central pressure 935 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed near center 50 m/s (95 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70 m/s (135 kt)
Radius of probability circle 650 km (360 NM)
Radius of storm warning area 850 km (450 NM)

[doomhaMwx]

JTWC now explicitly forecasting a cat 5.

[MHC Tracking]

Hinnamnor is beginning to clear its pinhole eye. The instantaneous DT has risen to 5.5. (LG embedded in B surrounded by W)

[mrbagyo]

pressure in Chichijima is down to 993.6 as of 08:30 UTC

[al78]

When JTWC issued its first advisory it wasn't expected to streengthen beyond 55 kts, now on the fifth advisory it is forecast to become a cat 5. That is one of the biggest swings in forecast I have ever seen in as short a time.

[doomhaMwx]

 https://twitter.com/KeviShader/status/1564178665847590913




SLP bottomed down to 983.4 mb at 09:10Z as Hinnamnor's center passed some 30-40km north of Chichijima station. Impressively, sustained winds of 60kts (31m/s) were recorded 10 minutes later.

[Hayabusa]

JTWC early 12Z

12W HINNAMNOR 220829 1200 27.4N 141.4E WPAC 90 966

[mrbagyo]

[doomhaMwx]

https://twitter.com/KeviShader/status/1564178665847590913

SLP bottomed down to 983.4 mb at 09:10Z as Hinnamnor's center passed some 30-40km north of Chichijima station. Impressively, sustained winds of 60kts (31m/s) were recorded 10 minutes later.

https://i.imgur.com/TZk3X8I.png
https://i.imgur.com/KUkO2TR.png

The lowest SLP was actually 982.1 mb at 09:05Z. A max gust of 94kts (48.4 m/s) was also recorded.