EPAC: KAY - Post-Tropical

[Kingarabian]

GFS does this every year. It's tough to get a SoCal landfall in a super El Nino. Imagine in a moderate La Nina.

I take this back. Looking at the GFS, it's large enough and shear will be low. There just needs to be a fat trough to pick up this up quickly.

[cycloneye]

What? For a Tropical Storm?

A. 12E (KAY)

B. 04/2330Z

C. 15.4N

D. 103.2W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. T1.0/1.5

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...GREATER THAN 0.2 BANDING RESULTS IN A DT OF 1.0. THE MET
IS 1.5 BASED ON A STEADY TREND IN APPARENT INTENSITY OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS. THE PT IS 1.0. THE FT IS BASED ON THE PT DUE TO BANDING FEATURES
NOT BEING CLEAR CUT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...HOSLEY

[Kingarabian]

18z GEFS


Lot's of members showing that this can get to San Diego's LAT/LON as a 980-990mb system. Not saying it will but this is something to monitor.

[Iceresistance]

12z CMC has this just shy of Arizona and California, gets really close before dipping south. It's not just the GFS OP that is thinking of a SOCAL (Southern California) TC possibility.

[Astromanía]

Socorro island may get the eye at peak intensity

[cycloneye]

EP, 12, 2022090500, , BEST, 0, 154N, 1033W, 35, 1002, TS

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bep122022.dat

[CrazyC83]

This would be unprecedented if it happened with the La Nina. Although it feels like an El Nino right now...

[galaxy401]

Honestly, I highly doubt Kay will be anything other than a remnant low by the time it gets to California. No way this will still be an intact TC by then. Javier became post-tropical far south of the state.

I do hope for some rain if it moves east enough but I'm not holding my breath.

[Sciencerocks]

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Kay Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122022
1000 PM CDT Sun Sep 04 2022

...KAY EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN INTO A HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.6N 103.8W
ABOUT 275 MI...440 KM WSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES



Tropical Storm Kay Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122022
1000 PM CDT Sun Sep 04 2022

The structure of Kay has slightly improved in satellite imagery
this evening. Deep convection has increased near the center, with a
more defined curved band over the southern and western portions
of the circulation. Earlier ASCAT data showed several 35-kt wind
vectors in the northeastern quadrant of the storm, and objective
satellite estimates have increased since TAFB provided a T2.5/35 kt
Dvorak classification at 00 UTC. Therefore, the initial intensity
is raised slightly to 40 kt for this advisory.

Kay has moved a bit right of the previous forecast track, but its
initial motion is still west-northwestward, or 295/12 kt. This
general motion is expected to continue for the next day or two as
the core of the cyclone passes well south of the coast of
southwestern Mexico. By Tuesday, the tightly clustered guidance
agrees that Kay will turn toward the northwest and then the
north-northwest, moving in the general direction of the Baja
California peninsula. The official NHC forecast track is virtually
unchanged from the previous one beyond 36 h, and closely follows the
HCCA and TVCE consensus aids. There is increased spread in the GFS
and ECMWF ensemble members later this week as Kay moves northward.
Users are reminded not to focus on the exact details of the
long-range forecast, as track errors on average increase with time.

The environmental conditions appear favorable for strengthening
during the next few days. Although Kay is currently contending with
some moderate northeasterly wind shear, a moist and unstable
atmosphere over very warm sea-surface temperatures (> 29C) should
allow the storm to intensify through the middle of the week. The
northeasterly shear is forecast to weaken beyond 48 h, which would
be even more conducive for significant strengthening as suggested by
some of the intensity guidance. The NHC intensity forecast generally
lies between the IVCN and HCCA aids, and it shows Kay becoming a
hurricane by early Tuesday and continuing to intensify into
Wednesday. Beyond 72 h, cooler SSTs are expected to induce a
weakening trend through the rest of the forecast period.

Tropical Storm or Hurricane Watches could be required tonight or on
Monday for portions of the Baja California peninsula, and interests
there should closely monitor the latest forecast updates.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Although the center of Kay is expected to stay offshore, heavy
rainfall could lead to localized flash flooding in portions of
southwestern Mexico over the next few days.

2. Kay is forecast to strengthen into a hurricane while it moves
northward toward the Baja California peninsula later this week.
While the details of the long-range track and intensity forecasts
are uncertain, there is a risk of wind and rainfall impacts in the
Baja California peninsula during the middle and latter parts of the
week. Interests there should closely monitor updates to the forecast
as tropical storm or hurricane watches could be required tonight or
on Monday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/0300Z 15.6N 103.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 05/1200Z 16.0N 105.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 06/0000Z 16.5N 107.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 06/1200Z 17.5N 109.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 07/0000Z 18.9N 110.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
60H 07/1200Z 20.7N 111.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 08/0000Z 22.5N 112.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 09/0000Z 26.2N 114.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 10/0000Z 29.3N 116.5W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

[Kingarabian]

Well the NHC is keeping it strong just SW of SoCal. 50kts at 29.3N/116.5W at hour 120. Not Remnant Low as we typically see.

[Sciencerocks]

GFS does this every year. It's tough to get a SoCal landfall in a super El Nino. Imagine in a moderate La Nina.

I take this back. Looking at the GFS, it's large enough and shear will be low. There just needs to be a fat trough to pick up this up quickly.

https://i.imgur.com/by2kWRI.gif

I am rooting for number 3 in recorded history. It would have to become a major at the very least and of course have that trough.

[Yellow Evan]

Given Kay will likely be tracking northwest or even west-northwest and at best parallel to the coast then due to ridging over the Great Basin, I don’t see an explicit landfall in California is a possibility. This will likely move onshore somewhere along the Baja California Peninsula as a hurricane after it turns slightly more north than west on Tuesday.

[Kingarabian]

Some of the model runs from the Euro and GFS showed the possibility for weak ridging. CMC/ICON actually have weak ridging hence their Baja California landfall solutions. Best bet is cooler SST's that stop it.

[Yellow Evan]

This such large structure is not compatible with significant intensification unless there’s a great moisture envelope. I’m skeptical of Kay being more than a Category 1/2 with the relatively short time it has. I really am.

[Yellow Evan]

:uarrow:
Some of the model runs from the Euro and GFS showed the possibility for weak ridging. CMC/ICON actually have weak ridging hence their Baja California landfall solutions. Best bet is cooler SST's that stop it.

Ridging is pretty weak further south so I don’t doubt Baja landfall solutions.





This will deflect any storm coming from the south to the northwest whether Kay is over the Gulf of California, Baja California, or the Pacific Ocean. If it’s the first two California will still see some affects but I think comparisons to 1858 and 1939 don’t make a ton of sense. I will say though that SSTs off Baja are above average but probably not at the optimal levels for a landfall even if steering was more cooperative.

[Monsoonjr99]

Would be nice if this brings us some rain after this heat wave we got going.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Storm Kay Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122022
400 AM CDT Mon Sep 05 2022

Deep convection has increased in a band around the southern and
eastern portions of the circulation overnight. A couple of ASCAT
passes from around 0345-0445 UTC revealed peak winds of 38-41 kt,
and a much larger wind field over the northeastern quadrant than
previous estimated. The ASCAT data, a TAFB Dvorak classification
of T3.0 and UW/CIMSS SATCON all supported a 45 kt intensity around
0600 UTC. Since the convective organization has continued to
increase over the past few hours, the initial intensity for this
advisory has been set at 50 kt.

Although Kay is currently within an area of light to moderate
northeasterly shear, it will be moving over SSTs of 28-29 degrees
Celsius during the next couple of days which should allow steady
strengthening. Most of the dynamical model guidance also predicts
significant deepening of Kay during that time, giving more
confidence to the forecast. The updated NHC intensity forecast
shows a slightly faster rate of strengthening in the short
term and now calls for Kay to become a hurricane within 24 hour.
The new forecast also calls for a slightly higher peak intensity
than before. After 60 h, cooler SSTs along the storm's track
are likely to induce gradual weakening, but Kay is forecast to
remain a large hurricane when it passes near the southern and
central portions of the Baja California peninsula. The latest NHC
intensity prediction again lies between the IVCN and HCCA aids.

Kay appears to have wobbled back left since the previous advisory,
but the longer term motion is 290/13 kt. Kay should remain on a
west-northwestward heading through tonight, but by Tuesday a
northwestward motion around the western periphery of a mid-level
ridge over Mexico is expected to begin. A turn to the
north-northwest is forecast by midweek and the guidance is in good
agreement that Kay will move in the direction of the southwest and
west-central coast of the Baja peninsula. Although there has been
some increase in model spread this cycle with the UKMET keeping the
system farther offshore, the typically reliable GFS and ECMWF are
near the eastern side of the guidance envelope and are in good
agreement on Kay moving very close to or over a portion of the west
coast of the Baja peninsula. The NHC track forecast is near a
blend of those models and is very similar to the previous track.
Users are reminded not to focus on the exact details of the
long-range forecast as wind and rainfall impacts are likely to
extend far from the center of the hurricane.

Tropical Storm or Hurricane Watches will likely be required later
today for portions of the Baja California peninsula, and interests
there should closely monitor the latest forecast updates.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Although the center of Kay is expected to stay offshore of
southwest mainland Mexico, heavy rainfall could lead to flash
flooding, including landslides, across portions of the Mexican
Riviera and western Mexico through Wednesday night.

2. Kay is forecast to strengthen into a hurricane while it moves
northward toward the Baja California peninsula later this week.
While the details of the long-range track and intensity forecasts
are uncertain, there is increasing risk of wind and rainfall
impacts in the Baja California peninsula during the middle and
latter parts of the week. Interests there should closely monitor
updates to the forecast as tropical storm or hurricane watches
will likely be required for a portion of that area later today.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/0900Z 15.7N 105.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 05/1800Z 16.0N 106.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 06/0600Z 17.0N 108.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 06/1800Z 18.1N 110.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 07/0600Z 19.6N 111.7W 90 KT 105 MPH
60H 07/1800Z 21.4N 112.7W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 08/0600Z 23.3N 113.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 09/0600Z 27.5N 115.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 10/0600Z 29.9N 118.3W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown

[cycloneye]

EP, 12, 2022090512, , BEST, 0, 157N, 1060W, 50, 995, TS

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bep122022.dat

[Ntxw]

Very cold CDO. If it can RI this will take off.