ATL: FIONA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[DorkyMcDorkface]

Convectively it definitely looks better than what models had at this point in time but we need to see if it maintains into the morning rather than collapse like it did today. Also would be nice to get an ASCAT pass.

[tiger_deF]

It says a great deal about how disappointing this season is that we have a convectively active wave in the MDR during peak season and the forum is nearly dead. Regardless, I think 96L has a decent chance of developing into a tropical storm over the next two days, and may surprise some people.

[skyline385]

It says a great deal about how disappointing this season is that we have a convectively active wave in the MDR during peak season and the forum is nearly dead. Regardless, I think 96L has a decent chance of developing into a tropical storm over the next two days, and may surprise some people.

Well the wave became convectively active just a couple of hours ago, was pretty much dead throughout the day. Also, there is only so much people can get excited about a tropical wave

[DorkyMcDorkface]

Convectively it definitely looks better than what models had at this point in time but we need to see if it maintains into the morning rather than collapse like it did today. Also would be nice to get an ASCAT pass.

...annnnnnnnd it missed lol, of course.
I swear it's more inaccurate than a stormtrooper.

[LarryWx]

 Convectively, the IR satellite looks more impressive than either GFS or CMC IR simulation maps look. Also, it looks more impressive than 24 hours ago, which itself looked rather impressive, itself. Shear is pretty low and SSTs are warming as it moves westward. This is moving over a climo favored region for development in mid Sept in a non-El Nino season. Several third year cold ENSO analogs have had genesis within 51-57W between 9/13 and 9/20. Thus, I remain confident this will become a TC and it will probably become a TD before 60W. It doesn't matter much to me how the season has gone so far.

[FireRat]

Must say it does look like it's getting better organized. Good reminder to not let the 2022 bearishness blind us to what may become a threatening tropical storm down the road. Lets see if the wave keeps its convection and doesn't get sloppy again.

[Fego]

Convergence and divergence getting there.

[AutoPenalti]

Well if the GFS ensembles are any indication, the stronger this becomes, the more OTS this goes.

[Hammy]

It says a great deal about how disappointing this season is that we have a convectively active wave in the MDR during peak season and the forum is nearly dead. Regardless, I think 96L has a decent chance of developing into a tropical storm over the next two days, and may surprise some people.

Well the wave became convectively active just a couple of hours ago, was pretty much dead throughout the day. Also, there is only so much people can get excited about a tropical wave

It's been convectively active since Monday night, with the exception of about five hours in the early afternoon when the two lobes of the wave started marging.

[drezee]

 https://twitter.com/andretrotter/status/1569910606156939265

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Wed Sep 14 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Central Tropical Atlantic:
Showers and thunderstorms have increased a little during the past
several hours in association with a tropical wave located a little
less than 900 miles east of the Lesser Antilles. Although
environmental conditions are only marginally conducive, some
additional development of this system is possible and a tropical
depression could form during the next couple of days. This system
is expected to moves westward to west-northwestward over the
tropical Atlantic and it is expected to be near the Leeward Islands
on Friday. Interests in the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and
Puerto Rico should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

Forecaster Cangialosi

[Sciencerocks]

[Dean4Storms]

Looks like a TD this morning.

[Nimbus]

Appears to be mainly a rain threat for the islands of the NE Caribbean Fri-Sun. Won't matter if it's called a TD or a disturbance, the threat is heavy rain. Lots of model divergence beyond the next 2-3 days. GFS indicates it is moving right into the southern edge of a strong TUTT. There's a fine line between good ventilation and wind shear. 300-700mb moisture is strung out to the east of the weak low in both the GFS & Euro this weekend, indicating shear.

The 00Z GEM got insulted by the model divergence comment and tracked into Houston.
Several 00z models including GFS show climo solutions weak and west into the Caribbean.
Looks like the center is slowly organizing and gaining latitude where it will be more likely to feel the ventilation/shear from the forecast TUTT. 00Z HWRF seems to respond positively to the ventilation before it becomes shear.

[aspen]

Wow, this looks fantastic, like it’s already a TC. Can’t wait for all the convection to collapse again this morning lol

[Nimbus]

Wow, this looks fantastic, like it’s already a TC. Can’t wait for all the convection to collapse again this morning lol

Looked to me like the center might outrun the convection earlier this morning.
The center is on the western periphery of the tilted CDO at sunrise.

[Jr0d]

Looks like a TD this morning.

The NHC will not go from orange to TD unless landfall is imminent.

We will likely see the red "tomato" later today. Unless miraculously ASCAT gets the center or the visible satellite is very impressive the NHC will be conservative...updating the chances by 10 to 20% every 6 hours.

TD tomorrow most likely if it continues to improve. Theres an outside chance this gets updated at 5pm or 11pm but I doubt it.

[Iceresistance]

Convectively it definitely looks better than what models had at this point in time but we need to see if it maintains into the morning rather than collapse like it did today. Also would be nice to get an ASCAT pass.

...annnnnnnnd it missed lol, of course.
I swear it's more inaccurate than a stormtrooper.

https://i.ibb.co/YTh2bB3/20220914-0037-mtb-ASCAT-wind-96-L-INVEST-25kts-1010mb-155-N-466-W-25km.jpg

It did, however, pick up the eastern side of the wind field and found some of 25 knot barbs.

[Blown Away]

Latest... Definite improvement from yesterday.

[toad strangler]

96L is surviving and puttering along ...