ATL: EARL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[kevin]

Looks like Earl is remaining steady in terms of intensity, probably indeed needs to shake off some of the shear before it can really get going. SFMR from the first pass indicates a possible upgrade to 60 kt, but I don't think the NHC will do that based on a single SFMR measurement from 1 pass. We'll have to wait and see what the next pass shows.

[Nimbus]

Looks like the small center may have been pulled up under the convection if the last recon fixes are correct.

[Hammy]

Looks like Earl is remaining steady in terms of intensity, probably indeed needs to shake off some of the shear before it can really get going. SFMR from the first pass indicates a possible upgrade to 60 kt, but I don't think the NHC will do that based on a single SFMR measurement from 1 pass. We'll have to wait and see what the next pass shows.

Doubtful they'd increase it between advisories but certainly on the BT--especially as we'll likely have a NE-SW pass by then.

[kevin]

NOAA3 just measured 995.2 mb. And a dropsonde measured 998 mb at the surface with 23 kt winds, which would also roughly translate to 996 mb if their is indeed a windless center somewhere. SE quadrant so far is notably weaker with a peak 42 kt SFMR, which again indicates that Earl isn't perfectly symmetrical yet with its center more towards the southern edge of the convection.

[Nimbus]

NOAA3 just measured 995.2 mb. SE quadrant so far is notably weaker with a peak 42 kt SFMR, which again indicates that Earl isn't perfectly symmetrical yet with its center more towards the southern edge of the convection.

The dropsondes southeast of the center fix are showing a little wind direction shear at the different altitudes.
I was surprised more dry air didn't get pulled in when the shear was higher.

Edit to add one of the dropsondes recorded a humidity of only 65% which is a little low.

https://www.researchgate.net/figure/Spe ... _282466894

[Emmett_Brown]

Papin did the 5pm NHC discussion for Earl and did a great job, lots of nice detail regarding upper level conditions, shear, etc.

[aspen]

This pass supports an intensity of 60 kt. If they go for a SW to NE pass, maybe they might find hurricane-force winds.

[Iceresistance]

This pass supports an intensity of 60 kt. If they go for a SW to NE pass, maybe they might find hurricane-force winds.

Recon also just missed the CoC on the West to East pass, may have to go for a SW to NE pass.

[Hammy]

Did the center just completely reform within the convection?

[ScottNAtlanta]

They were a little south of it, but looking at the surface and fl winds it still isn't quite stacked but they measured a pressure on 996.1mb, and it is pretty close to being stacked...just not quite there.

[Nimbus]

Looks like hurricane force winds in the southern eyewall so northeast quadrant will likely be stronger.
Also looks like it is working some of the dry air out, only dropsonde two had a dry reading at 850 mb.

[Iceresistance]

Recon may have found a rapidly deepening Earl, 990 MB Extrapolated.

[Landy]

990.2mb extrap. Likely quick intensification ongoing.

[cheezyWXguy]

The tail is starting to fall away and outflow seems to be improving. It’s pretty clear earl is starting to respond to improving conditions.

[cycloneye]

AL, 06, 2022090600, , BEST, 0, 225N, 652W, 60, 996, TS

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bal062022.dat

[Iceresistance]

AL, 06, 2022090600, , BEST, 0, 225N, 652W, 60, 996, TS

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bal062022.dat

Almost a Hurricane

[aspen]

No hurricane-force winds in the NE quadrant. Looks like it’s still a high-end tropical storm, but the MLC and LLC continue to get better aligned and it has deepened significantly today. Earl’s significant intensification and organization phase might start tomorrow instead of Wednesday if shear doesn’t pick up and disrupt the system’s improving structure.

[weeniepatrol]

~991mb and an inversion

[Iceresistance]

No hurricane-force winds in the NE quadrant. Looks like it’s still a high-end tropical storm, but the MLC and LLC continue to get better aligned and it has deepened significantly today. Earl’s significant intensification and organization phase might start tomorrow instead of Wednesday if shear doesn’t pick up and disrupt the system’s improving structure.

The Shear is high, at 40-50 knots, but it's favorable directionally.

[weeniepatrol]

Quite a different look this pass and multiple degrees C warmer too

didn't realize they missed the center slightly, my bad