ATL: IAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[eastcoastFL]

I understand that locations and strength are not certain at this time, but I see things leaning toward a possible west Fl landfall possibly as a major. Should that happen, what might be expected on the east coast of Fl?
Thank you.

I’m in Martin county and my local NOAA forecast isn’t showing much of anything. It actually decreased since this morning. Rain and light wind 28mph.

[Coolcruiseman]

Preparing for the family's 1st tropical storm experience with supplies check this afternoon as this looks to exiting over or near the Melbourne area and potentially "lingering" right off-coast for some time if I'm reading the models correctly.

[sunnyday]

Thank you for the info, InfernoFlameCat.

[Poonwalker]

What I don't understand is why the heck I don't see any rapid intensification forecasted in the Carib? Doesn't the Carib suppose to be boiling hot? Or Is there just lots of shear and dry air being forecasted or something in the Carib that's making for such slow strengthening?

they are being a bit conservative as usual, but realistic too as they did upgrade it quickly to a major at landfall. RI is almost certain with those SST's and the shear forecast, however, RI is the most difficult part of a forecast, they have been trying to upgrade the GFS to handle it along with the new drones.

[kevin]

What I don't understand is why the heck I don't see any rapid intensification forecasted in the Carib? Doesn't the Carib suppose to be boiling hot? Or Is there just lots of shear and dry air being forecasted or something in the Carib that's making for such slow strengthening?

Shear will keep it in check for the next 30 hours or so. After that it could indeed start RI'ing in the WCar and some models like HWRF/HMON/COT2 show something like that with cat 3/4 intensity before the Cuba landfall. But a lot of other models are a bit more conservative with 'just' a cat 2. It looks like NHC is currently following the latter models for intensity. They usually do this with TCs that haven't formed yet or still have a ragged structure, which makes sense as otherwise you'd probably overestimate a lot of blobs with the potential for RI. If our bullish expectations are realized and we get a well-structured system in 24 hours or so, expect the forecast intensity to go up.

[NAVAIDNICK]

Oh here we go, the 11am has an "M" on top of us I know there's always changes this far out but really keeping my eye on this one for sure!

I'm just north of you near Sarasota. At this point, I'm hoping it forms quickly and gets named Hermine instead of the dreaded "I" name!

[tolakram]

What I don't understand is why the heck I don't see any rapid intensification forecasted in the Carib? Doesn't the Carib suppose to be boiling hot? Or Is there just lots of shear and dry air being forecasted or something in the Carib that's making for such slow strengthening?

First it has to clear Fiona's outflow, then navigate around a couple of upper level features (edit)

Current shear map

[terredw]

I am in the Houston area and we plan on a family vacation flight to Key West tomorrow morning for a week.

I have gone through a few storms in Houston over the years with no big issues, but I am a little concerned actually traveling with the family to the Key's tomorrow.

Any suggestions or thoughts for someone never being in that area before especially with a potential storm?

Thanks David
<Only 2nd post but active lurching for a while>

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/1573335491683950594

[eastcoastFL]

Still dealing with some strong shear around the exposed center. Probably for another 24 hours

[Kazmit]

I am in the Houston area and we plan on a family vacation flight to Key West tomorrow morning for a week.

I have gone through a few storms in Houston over the years with no big issues, but I am a little concerned actually traveling with the family to the Key's tomorrow.

Any suggestions or thoughts for someone never being in that area before especially with a potential storm?

Thanks David
<Only 2nd post but active lurching for a while>

Don't go if you can. If you have to go, your vacation will be ruined anyway.

[skyline385]

I am in the Houston area and we plan on a family vacation flight to Key West tomorrow morning for a week.

I have gone through a few storms in Houston over the years with no big issues, but I am a little concerned actually traveling with the family to the Key's tomorrow.

Any suggestions or thoughts for someone never being in that area before especially with a potential storm?

Thanks David
<Only 2nd post but active lurching for a while>

Probably the wrong time to be in the keys, especially with storm surge in case the hurricane comes in much stronger than expected


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[beachnut]

Oh here we go, the 11am has an "M" on top of us I know there's always changes this far out but really keeping my eye on this one for sure!

I'm just north of you near Sarasota. At this point, I'm hoping it forms quickly and gets named Hermine instead of the dreaded "I" name!

Looks like it will be Hermine according to the notification I just received in the my tropics app and 10L will get Ian

[terredw]

I am in the Houston area and we plan on a family vacation flight to Key West tomorrow morning for a week.

I have gone through a few storms in Houston over the years with no big issues, but I am a little concerned actually traveling with the family to the Key's tomorrow.

Any suggestions or thoughts for someone never being in that area before especially with a potential storm?

Thanks David
<Only 2nd post but active lurching for a while>

Probably the wrong time to be in the keys, especially with storm surge in case the hurricane comes in much stronger than expected


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Thanks for the response and that is my thoughts also. Just looking for some more ammo to convince my Wife who is not from the Gulf Coast area. Thanks

[skyline385]

I am in the Houston area and we plan on a family vacation flight to Key West tomorrow morning for a week.

I have gone through a few storms in Houston over the years with no big issues, but I am a little concerned actually traveling with the family to the Key's tomorrow.

Any suggestions or thoughts for someone never being in that area before especially with a potential storm?

Thanks David
<Only 2nd post but active lurching for a while>

Probably the wrong time to be in the keys, especially with storm surge in case the hurricane comes in much stronger than expected


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Thanks for the response and that is my thoughts also. Just looking for some more ammo to convince my Wife who is not from the Gulf Coast area. Thanks

This won’t be an Irma but here’s some footage from the keys when it passed over as a Cat 3 for your wife

https://youtu.be/LLK6z0PMVF4


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[cycloneye]

Bill Karins take.

 https://twitter.com/BillKarins/status/1573336509020790785

[Michele B]

Please, those in southcentral Florida, prepare from now, although you had to do so since June 1.

https://i.imgur.com/NNtKm9p.jpg

Panic has begun.

Just made a run for gas....several pumps closed and lines 3 & 4 deep at all the other pumps.

Glad I stay prepped. Just needed to top off my gas tank. Now just watch and wait. We'll have to bug out to somewhere, but at least the grocery store WON'T be one place you'll find me!

[Michele B]

I understand that locations and strength are not certain at this time, but I see things leaning toward a possible west Fl landfall possibly as a major. Should that happen, what might be expected on the east coast of Fl?
Thank you.

Depends on how large the storm gets. If it's a tight, compact storm, could be next to nothing, a little breeze, maybe some rain.

If the storm grows large, you could feel tropical force winds (up to approx. 39 mph) and/or lots of rain. Sometimes the wind fields extend out hundreds of miles.

[Ivanhater]

TVCN will most definitely swing back west in a couple of hours

[Aric Dunn]

12z HWRF pointing to a pretty substantial reformation in the convection he SW over the 12 to 24 hours. So far it west and south of the last run.

So definitely need to watch out for that to occur today. what the final result in track such a thing will cause is unknown exactly. but brushing the western tip of cuba vs going over some terrain could be a big difference.