ATL: IAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Category5Kaiju]

56 total people are now dead from this storm. Unfortunately I expect this toll to grow in the coming days. This is going to be quite a deadly hurricane, possibly the deadliest since 2020's Eta.

[mpic]

Any word on how badly damaged the Ft. Myers Airport was and any time guess on when it will reopen to residents to come back?

[mpic]

How bad will it be in Charlotte?

[typhoonty]

Any word on how badly damaged the Ft. Myers Airport was and any time guess on when it will reopen to residents to come back?

It's pretty far inland so I would guess about 7-10 days to get back online, but that's a COMPLETE guess.

[LarryWx]

Looking back to the 0Z 9/25 runs at where the models had FL landfalls:

0Z 9/25:
ICON Venice
CMC Cedar Key
GFS Destin
Euro Sarasota
UKMET Port Charlotte

12Z 9/25:
ICON Sarasota
CMC Apalachee Bay
GFS Apalachee Bay
Euro Tampa
UKMET Venice

0Z 9/26:
ICON Venice
CMC Apalachee Bay
GFS Apalachee Bay
Euro Cedar Key
UKMET Port Charlotte

12Z 9/26:
ICON Tampa
CMC Apalachicola
GFS Tampa
Euro Big Bend
UKMET Port Charlotte

0Z 9/27:
ICON Venice
CMC Big Bend
GFS Sarasota
Euro Venice
UKMET just N of Ft Myers

12Z 9/27:
ICON Port Charlotte
CMC Tampa
GFS just N of Port Charlotte
Euro Port Charlotte
UKMET 20 miles S of Ft. Myers

0Z 9/28:
ICON 15 miles S of Port Charlotte
CMC Venice
GFS Port Charlotte
Euro Port Charlotte
UKMET Port Charlotte

My grades on FL landfall only (i.e., excluding SC landfall) for 9/25-8 runs:

UKMET A-
ICON B
Euro C-
GFS D
CMC F

[aspen]

The death toll is over 70 now with a damage total of at least $47 billion. I can’t believe how bad this turned out to be. Ian will probably go down as one of the most devastating examples of how you always need to be vigilant in the tropics. Slow seasons can still be extremely impactful, very weak and disorganized storms can turn around very quickly (Ian’s 30hr RI into a Cat 3/4 Cuba landfall), and slight track shifts can make a world of a difference. If Ian stuck to the western GFS and HWRF tracks, it probably would’ve ended up as a sheared low-end hurricane at landfall instead of Charley 2.0.

[Sanibel]

Power and water back on Winkler and Sumerlin...


Maybe they could use Army Corps Of Engineers Cantilevered Truss bridging on the damaged sections of the Causeway to get the quickest access for equipment...You know, the quick bridging they use to get across rivers in wars...Since the missing sections are squared-off and relatively short that would be a practical, low cost, quick way of restoring access...Inspect and shore-up the standing structure and gap the damaged sections with military-type temporary bridging...

[Sanibel]

Any word on how badly damaged the Ft. Myers Airport was and any time guess on when it will reopen to residents to come back?

When I left there Thursday it was completely undamaged as far as I could see and looked like they could have resumed flights that day...

[DestinHurricane]

Power and water back on Winkler and Sumerlin...


Maybe they could use Army Corps Of Engineers Cantilevered Truss bridging on the damaged sections of the Causeway to get the quickest access for equipment...You know, the quick bridging they use to get across rivers in wars...Since the missing sections are squared-off and relatively short that would be a practical, low cost, quick way of restoring access...Inspect and shore-up the standing structure and gap the damaged sections with military-type temporary bridging...

The rest of the bridge is likely structurally unsound and could still collapse

[Iceresistance]

Power and water back on Winkler and Sumerlin...


Maybe they could use Army Corps Of Engineers Cantilevered Truss bridging on the damaged sections of the Causeway to get the quickest access for equipment...You know, the quick bridging they use to get across rivers in wars...Since the missing sections are squared-off and relatively short that would be a practical, low cost, quick way of restoring access...Inspect and shore-up the standing structure and gap the damaged sections with military-type temporary bridging...

The rest of the bridge is likely structurally unsound and could still collapse

They did the same thing on the I-10 Lake Pontchartrain Causeway until the new structure was completely built.

It also looks like it's the eastern abutment of the main bridge that failed on the Sanibel Island Causeway, not the bridge itself.

[Ed_2001]

77 now...deadlier than Michael, Andrew, Charley and Wilma in FL and getting close to Irma territory, and it sounds like a lot of that number is surge fatality vs mostly indirect deaths for Irma. A tragic situation all around, when was the last time a hurricane caused 100+ fatalities in Florida?

[kevin]

77 now...deadlier than Michael, Andrew, Charley and Wilma in FL and getting close to Irma territory, and it sounds like a lot of that number is surge fatality vs mostly indirect deaths for Irma. A tragic situation all around, when was the last time an hurricane caused 100+ fatalities in Florida?

According to Wikipedia we'd have to go all the way back to the Labor Day hurricane in 1935 to find the most recent hurricane that caused 100+ deaths in Florida (409 to be precise). Unfortunately I think Ian will be added to that dreaded list. With the total devastation, storm surge and rapidly increasing death toll as areas are reached by emergency services it's looking more and more likely that Ian will go into the history books as the deadliest storm for the US mainland since Katrina.

[J_J99]

Disgusting to see that elitist rag NY Times pretend there just was not enough time to evacuate. Everyone knew it was 15 foot plus predicted storm surge. Staying was foolish. The roads out were....EMPTY the night before. But hey, lets blame the always seen stubborn, on people who told you to leave.

They waited until approximately 18 hours before Tropical Storm force winds would arrive to issue an evacuation and ramped up messaging in a period of 5 hours to go from no evacuation to preparation should be rushed to completion. They ignored their own evacuation plan meticulously made by county EMA officials. The storm surge warning was issued 42 hours prior to landfall, and even with a landfall at Tampa would have caused significant storm surge. Waiting until the day before of such a decently populated area was a terrible mistake and left many without clear direction until it was too late. Lee County officials rightfully deserve most of the blame here.

[Rail Dawg]

Most folks it seems forget about the hurricane chasers who are still in the disaster zone.

My guess is the chasers on Sanibel Island will have to leave their vehicles behind? Are they part of the problem now? I’m not talking about the pro chasers that know what they’re doing.

Part of hurricane chasing is having an exit strategy. If I was risking my life and support vehicle on Sanibel Island for the Stadium Effect and YouTube clicks I would know my only exit lies on a single bridge subject to surge.

And that is unacceptable.

Kept my mouth shut during Ian but these tornado-chasing newbies I think are experiencing a heavy dose of reality if they are still behind the floodwaters. Cutting one’s teeth chasing a high Cat 4 eyewall is borderline suicide.

I saw it coming and retired from chasing back in 2020. The chasers who are stuck will get to go through the hardest part of the chase.

The aftermath. These chasers until rescued have a lot of work ahead of them. And let’s not be a fly on the wall at the insurance company when a chaser tries to file a total loss vehicle claim.

My hat is off right now to the tens of thousands of responders. As the floods recede they are moving in.

Chuck

[dpep4]

Lee County officials blew it. They repeated some of the same mistakes as LA governor Blanco before Katrina. (Though I haven't read yet of the head of NHC and the President having to call Lee County to beg them to start evacuating immediately.) No excuse for not following their own guidelines.

Regardless, the people interviewed saying it was too late to evacuate are also excuse making for their own poor decisions. I checked the roads Tuesday night, both freeways east and north had pretty much cleared out. Designed for evacuation and patrolled until the last minute. It's about a 2 hour drive from Ft. Myers Beach to the Ft. Lauderdale suburbs, even with rain and possible traffic they wouldn't have had to drive all night. Failure to fill up and worried about no gas along the way would be a deterrent, but it was only a few minutes drive to a local shelter.

I could understand apprehension of using the 2-lane cross state routes at night (no way I would have tried US 41 to Miami late that evening) but further north and inland 80, 78, and 70 had improved to just a few slowdowns at local town choke points. I'm sure they were also patrolled as long as possible, probably until near dawn.

Unmentioned by the NY Times (always have to take their "reporting" with a big grain of salt these days) is that Lee County had 10 shelters opened by 9 am Tuesday, and 4 more opened by noon (11 of them schools, so they did at some point cancel school for Tuesday). The shelters accepted pets, so that talking point on twitter is also bull. I recall reports Tuesday night and Wed morning that officials were worried because shelters weren't close to full. I haven't checked, but am sure that people with special needs, mobility issues, and other factors that would hinder their evacuation could call 911 or other resources and get evacuated.

Despite an inexcusable late start in the evacuation call by Lee County, people could have left if they wanted to. They had from Tuesday morning until after midnight. Not a ton of route options but also not a huge population, its spread out for many miles along the coast. This isn't comparable to trying to evacuate 2 million from New Orleans metro.

[hohnywx]

As I have calculated from official sources, the death toll from Ian stands at 75. 4 in North Carolina, 3 in Cuba and 68 in Florida:

Charlotte: 12 deaths (source: Florida SERT)
Collier: 8 deaths (source: Florida SERT)
Hardee: 2 deaths (source: county PIO)
Lake: 1 death (source: medical examiner)
Lee: 35 deaths (source: sheriff's office)
Manatee: 1 death (source: medical examiner)
Martin: 1 death (source: sheriff's office)
Sarasota: 4 deaths (source: sheriff's office & medical examiner)
Volusia: 4 deaths (source: medical examiner)

Note this does not include the migrants who were lost during the storm making their way from Cuba to the U.S.

[Teban54]

Lee County officials blew it. They repeated some of the same mistakes as LA governor Blanco before Katrina. (Though I haven't read yet of the head of NHC and the President having to call Lee County to beg them to start evacuating immediately.) No excuse for not following their own guidelines.

Regardless, the people interviewed saying it was too late to evacuate are also excuse making for their own poor decisions. I checked the roads Tuesday night, both freeways east and north had pretty much cleared out. Designed for evacuation and patrolled until the last minute. It's about a 2 hour drive from Ft. Myers Beach to the Ft. Lauderdale suburbs, even with rain and possible traffic they wouldn't have had to drive all night. Failure to fill up and worried about no gas along the way would be a deterrent, but it was only a few minutes drive to a local shelter.

I could understand apprehension of using the 2-lane cross state routes at night (no way I would have tried US 41 to Miami late that evening) but further north and inland 80, 78, and 70 had improved to just a few slowdowns at local town choke points. I'm sure they were also patrolled as long as possible, probably until near dawn.

Unmentioned by the NY Times (always have to take their "reporting" with a big grain of salt these days) is that Lee County had 10 shelters opened by 9 am Tuesday, and 4 more opened by noon (11 of them schools, so they did at some point cancel school for Tuesday). The shelters accepted pets, so that talking point on twitter is also bull. I recall reports Tuesday night and Wed morning that officials were worried because shelters weren't close to full. I haven't checked, but am sure that people with special needs, mobility issues, and other factors that would hinder their evacuation could call 911 or other resources and get evacuated.

Despite an inexcusable late start in the evacuation call by Lee County, people could have left if they wanted to. They had from Tuesday morning until after midnight. Not a ton of route options but also not a huge population, its spread out for many miles along the coast. This isn't comparable to trying to evacuate 2 million from New Orleans metro.

I remember someone else mentioned in this thread (they heard from someone else) that there were misinformation spreading about shelters being full. Some people chose to ride it out at home because of that.

[Coolcruiseman]

Lee County officials blew it. They repeated some of the same mistakes as LA governor Blanco before Katrina. (Though I haven't read yet of the head of NHC and the President having to call Lee County to beg them to start evacuating immediately.) No excuse for not following their own guidelines.

Regardless, the people interviewed saying it was too late to evacuate are also excuse making for their own poor decisions. I checked the roads Tuesday night, both freeways east and north had pretty much cleared out. Designed for evacuation and patrolled until the last minute. It's about a 2 hour drive from Ft. Myers Beach to the Ft. Lauderdale suburbs, even with rain and possible traffic they wouldn't have had to drive all night. Failure to fill up and worried about no gas along the way would be a deterrent, but it was only a few minutes drive to a local shelter.

I could understand apprehension of using the 2-lane cross state routes at night (no way I would have tried US 41 to Miami late that evening) but further north and inland 80, 78, and 70 had improved to just a few slowdowns at local town choke points. I'm sure they were also patrolled as long as possible, probably until near dawn.

Unmentioned by the NY Times (always have to take their "reporting" with a big grain of salt these days) is that Lee County had 10 shelters opened by 9 am Tuesday, and 4 more opened by noon (11 of them schools, so they did at some point cancel school for Tuesday). The shelters accepted pets, so that talking point on twitter is also bull. I recall reports Tuesday night and Wed morning that officials were worried because shelters weren't close to full. I haven't checked, but am sure that people with special needs, mobility issues, and other factors that would hinder their evacuation could call 911 or other resources and get evacuated.

Despite an inexcusable late start in the evacuation call by Lee County, people could have left if they wanted to. They had from Tuesday morning until after midnight. Not a ton of route options but also not a huge population, its spread out for many miles along the coast. This isn't comparable to trying to evacuate 2 million from New Orleans metro.

Taking the emotion of the situation out of it (obviously easier not being in that area) this ultimately comes down to failure to take personal responsibility. As harsh as it may seem to be stating this, unfortunately it's easier for Lee County officials and residents to fall back on excuses that point the finger elsewhere instead of taking that responsibility.

[Category5Kaiju]

Very stunning but heartbreaking image. Merely hours, if not minutes, before the cities experienced Ragnarok.

[Michele B]

I75 north of Ft. Myers around North Port is closed due to river Myakka Flooding, and so are multiple alternate routes (41, 72, 70) to there. The river rises are going to hamper the relief efforts even after the storm is gone. Unconfirmed reports that the I75 bridge over Myakka collapsed, but not sure if that's true.

Y ah, apparently that is not true. But there are plenty of places where the various waterways have encroached the roads.

Several (surface roads) washed out. And water flowing over the highways and making it dangerous to drive on them (ala I-75). But I believe the last report we had was that I-75 did NOT collapse.