ATL: EARL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Hammy]

No hurricane-force winds in the NE quadrant. Looks like it’s still a high-end tropical storm, but the MLC and LLC continue to get better aligned and it has deepened significantly today. Earl’s significant intensification and organization phase might start tomorrow instead of Wednesday if shear doesn’t pick up and disrupt the system’s improving structure.

Looks like the MLC and LLC are rotating around each other as the relative shear relaxes, and will likely meet/wrap completely around by morning. Big change in just the last two hours vs the preceding 12.

[ScottNAtlanta]

the 925 mb vorticity is just a little bit south of the 500mb

[galaxy401]

Looking good for Earl now as it starts to finally get out of the strong shear. A major hurricane is looking likely.

[Sciencerocks]

[Landy]

[weeniepatrol]

634
URNT12 KWBC 060130
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL062022
A. 06/00:44:03Z
B. 22.66 deg N 065.18 deg W
C. NA
D. 993 mb
E. 115 deg 20 kt
F. NA
G. NA
H. 44 kt
I. 181 deg 14 nm 00:40:50Z
J. 246 deg 58 kt
K. 180 deg 5 nm 00:42:54Z
L. 52 kt
M. 036 deg 13 nm 00:47:34Z
N. 151 deg 58 kt
O. 033 deg 11 nm 00:46:55Z
P. 22 C / 2359 m
Q. 22 C / 2365 m
R. 9 C / NA
S. 1345 / NA
T. 0.01 / 3 nm
U. NOAA3 1106A EARL OB 17
MAX FL WIND 60 KT 158 / 25 NM 23:39:52Z

[aspen]

Looks like we’re getting one last center pass before the 11pm advisory. Maybe this time they’ll find a hurricane.

[drezee]

 https://twitter.com/andretrotter/status/1566968674606809088

[drezee]

 https://twitter.com/andretrotter/status/1566972485782106112

[cheezyWXguy]

Earl is gonna need a new burst soon. Cloud tops are noticeably warming, it’s like the switch just flipped off lol.

[Ntxw]

Earl is gonna need a new burst soon. Cloud tops are noticeably warming, it’s like the switch just flipped off lol.

It's still in a relatively high shear environment. Its movement N will help but conditions are still not all that ideal for a blossoming hurricane yet. It'll continue to pulse up and down.

[Hammy]

Can't say I was expecting a total collapse of the inner core, looks like mid-level dry air got sucked in

Probably down to 50kt now which will delay reaching hurricane intensity and given there's only a tiny window to reach major hurricane, that's all but out of the question

Center looks about here, based on cloud motion, but seems more broad than earlier and hard to tell

[Teban54]

I'm preparing for the influx of season cancel posts when I wake up.

[Hammy]

Finally got some microwave imagery

[Nimbus]

Earl is gonna need a new burst soon. Cloud tops are noticeably warming, it’s like the switch just flipped off lol.

That 64 percent dropsonde humidity reading at 850 mb earlier wasn't an anomaly, the dry air won.
Also looks to have made the track shift to just east of due north.

[aspen]

Looks like the HWRF was right about Earl becoming disheveled today. If it continues to follow the HWRF, then it will recover over the next 24-36 hours.

[MHC Tracking]

Can't say I was expecting a total collapse of the inner core, looks like mid-level dry air got sucked in

Probably down to 50kt now which will delay reaching hurricane intensity and given there's only a tiny window to reach major hurricane, that's all but out of the question

Center looks about here, based on cloud motion, but seems more broad than earlier and hard to tell

https://i.imgur.com/elFFxZD.png

Not really. This convective collapse was shown on the GFS and HWRF models, both of which take it into major hurricane territory. In fact, all stormscale models still make this a major hurricane (and even a cat 4!). GFS and ECM do too.

[Iceresistance]

Can't say I was expecting a total collapse of the inner core, looks like mid-level dry air got sucked in

Probably down to 50kt now which will delay reaching hurricane intensity and given there's only a tiny window to reach major hurricane, that's all but out of the question

Center looks about here, based on cloud motion, but seems more broad than earlier and hard to tell

https://i.imgur.com/elFFxZD.png

Not really. This convective collapse was shown on the GFS and HWRF models, both of which take it into major hurricane territory. In fact, all stormscale models still make this a major hurricane (and even a cat 4!). GFS and ECM do too.

Not just that, Earl is already showing signs of recovering from the expected collapse.

[Category5Kaiju]

For a storm traveling through quite a bit of shear, I have to say that Earl has generally been an overachiever. Even with the perceived disheveled nature now, the storm simply has too much energy that I really don't think it will simply dissipate or die; we've seen storms in the past struggle like this and then get their act together after they leave a zone of high shear. My expectation is that Earl will do just that.

[aspen]

Pressure looks to be falling a bit again, down to the mid-990s. The next pass will go through the NE quadrant where the strongest winds probably are.

Also, despite Earl’s convective collapse overnight, recon has found that the wind and pressure gradients align even closer than during the previous flight, indicating that the MLC and LLC have gotten better stacked.