ATL: IAN - Models

[utweather]

In late September? Highly doubt it. Not impossible but damn near it.

I agree if this was happening a month earlier or even 2 weeks ago it would be a bigger threat to Texas but with it being late September I don't see it happening. Rita came close to being a rare late September hit and there is a few others I'm forgetting but it is highly unlikely imo.

Hurricane Delta made landfall about 50 miles east of the TX/LA border on 10/10/2020. Also interesting to note, Hurricane Lili made landfall roughly 60 miles west of the 00z landfall point 20 years ago minus 1 day on October 3, 2002.

Definitely keep an eye on this in Texas. The almanac is not foolproof.

[LarryWx]

0Z GEFS mean is the furthest west of any recent run.

[SoupBone]

0Z GEFS mean is the furthest west of any recent run.

Yeah with quite a few ensemble members meandering around the bay of campeche. I'm not understanding that.

[Teban54]

0z Euro is much stronger and faster in the short term. As a result, at 120 hrs (0z 9/27) its location and intensity are virtually the same as 12z run's 12z 9/27. Still the same track so far.

[Keldeo1997]

Strongest EURO run so far.

[LarryWx]

0Z Euro is west of the 12Z and the 0Z of yesterday.

[Keldeo1997]

Watch out Big bend

[CrazyC83]

The 00Z Euro has basically gone back to what it was a couple days ago. A nightmare scenario for Tampa Bay.

[AtlanticWind]

At 7 days euro just off of tampa , Gfs in middle of gulf
Pretty big difference

Gfs kinda the outlier from euro ,ukmet, Canadian. We shall see who ends up right.

[shah83]

One thing I've been concerned about was that with models maybe generally being too far west, we've not really countenanced the post-Fl evolution of future Ian. Setup seems to favor a nasty Mid-Atlantic or NE impact.

[caneman]

The 00Z Euro has basically gone back to what it was a couple days ago. A nightmare scenario for Tampa Bay.

Yep that's the angle of approach and just North of us that would cause the most damage other than right up the bay.

[SoupBone]

The 00Z Euro has basically gone back to what it was a couple days ago. A nightmare scenario for Tampa Bay.

While the GFS has gone bonkers to the west into SE Louisiana.

[Blown Away]

00z Euro holds serve, slightly N of 12z FL landfall. At 192 hours the GFS is 600+ miles SW of Euro, crazy!

[Jelmergraaff]

HWRF has it intensifying quickly over the NW-Carribean with an increase from 996mb/42kt to 935mb/120kt in just 48 hours. Takes it right in between Cuba and the Yucutan it seems.

[Blown Away]

00z ECMWF… FL landfall just N of Tampa then accelerates NE, no stall like 12z.

[Blown Away]

00z CMC… Big shift E with FL landfall near Everglades and accelerates NE.

[hurricaneCW]

I think something between the CMC & Euro is most likely. GFS is way out there but not impossible if it takes a while to develop.

[Blown Away]

For fun, the 00z GFS/EURO at 240 hours are @1200 miles apart! In addition to this craziness, the EURO is E outlier and GFS is W outlier. Interested to see how this resolves!

[LarryWx]

0Z EPS mean seems to be similar to the 12Z. The spread seems a bit tighter (fewer extremes like Yucatan and Bahamas).

[Ivanhater]

Blend has been pretty consistent




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