ATL: NICOLE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Jevo]

That 980 wasn’t flagged, it’s legit

```220800 2723N 07408W 6953 03002 9826 +120 +090 022028 032 039 000 00
220830 2723N 07406W 6950 03003 9813 +127 +091 030021 028 033 000 00
220900 2722N 07404W 6953 02996 9803 +134 +084 039018 019 024 000 00
220930 2720N 07402W 6952 02994 9802 +131 +101 050009 017 015 000 00
221000 2719N 07401W 6952 02996 9802 +131 +099 131002 007 011 000 03
221030 2717N 07359W 6952 03000 9815 +123 +102 218010 015 011 000 03
221100 2717N 07357W 6952 03004 9826 +118 +097 196025 029 024 000 00
221130 2717N 07354W 6951 03011 9843 +112 +075 184033 034 041 000 00```

[weeniepatrol]

[eastcoastFL]

Looking at my local wind forecast. It appears that the eye should pass through the treasure coast around 2am Thursday morning. Shows the wind peaking just before that, a lull for an hour and a spike.

[aspen]

Center drop supports 986mb. Looks like 980mb was due to the NOAA plane’s barometer’s low bias. Regardless, Nicole is significantly deeper than most models predicted for this time.

[TallahasseeMan]

Max winds looks to be close to 60kts at the moment. Very impressive Pressure though considering how ugly she looks currently. The HWRF solution of 960s pressure at landfall but CAT 1 winds looks solid.

[TallahasseeMan]

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1590109664204976131

[GCANE]

Looks like it's still struggling with the PV streamer.
CIMSS showing its on the edge,
Likely will continue to see fluctuations like this with the convection.

[GCANE]

Center drop tags it about 20 miles south of forecast track

[Blown Away]

Clearly sucked in some mid-level dry air today. Will see how the core responds over next several hours.
https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/FLOATER/data/AL172022/AirMass/20223121410-20223121940-GOES16-ABI-AL172022-AirMass-1000x1000.gif

The storm has been performing quite well compared to initial expectations, so I honestly don't think that that will be a big detriment in the long run.

I think the presence of dry air is why they've kept max intensity at 75mph.

I think the NHC letting the public digest a very big track change leaving it a 75 mph. Based on trends this afternoon, I think they bump it up to 80-85 mph at next advisory.

[sponger]

Max winds looks to be close to 60kts at the moment. Very impressive Pressure though considering how ugly she looks currently. The HWRF solution of 960s pressure at landfall but CAT 1 winds looks solid.

That pressure gradient will make this one of the strongest and destructive Cat 1's in history!

[AutoPenalti]

Center drop tags it about 20 miles south of forecast track

Yeah that’s a bit of a difference

[GCANE]

VDM from Miss Piggy

F. Eye Character: Open from the east to the south
G. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 20 nautical miles (23 statute miles)

[GCANE]

Center drop tags it about 20 miles south of forecast track

Yeah that’s a bit of a difference

If it was 20 miles north of track, it would be clear of the PV streamer and convection dramatically stronger.
Its like right on the edge.

[cane5]

Center drop tags it about 20 miles south of forecast track

I’m wondering now that it’s a closed circulation it’s now acting like it’s under a strong high ridge and I’m seeing a move sw now that was in agreement with what the models said yesterday. Interesting dynamics with Nicole.

[eastcoastFL]

Shouldn't we be getting hourly updates from the NHC at this point?

[jlauderdal]

We just had a very healthy squall move through, more intense than anything I saw with Ian.

[Jevo]

Credit to Aric Dunn for this image but it shows that daggum thumb ridge at the end and the reason why Nicole will be heading wsw for a while.

[GCANE]

Very moist troposphere west of the CoC

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/r ... 8-2019.png
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/r ... 8-1827.png

[Sciencerocks]

[sponger]

That high pressure ridge is ridiculous.