ATL: FIONA - Models
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Re: ATL: SEVEN - Models
96L already being a TD is really going to throw a monkey wrench into all the model outputs, because none of the models — not even the 00z HWRF — developed it today. Maybe it’ll go north of the islands instead of running over them if it’s a TS once it nears the Lesser Antilles on Friday.
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I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
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SFLcane
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Re: ATL: SEVEN - Models
aspen wrote:96L already being a TD is really going to throw a monkey wrench into all the model outputs, because none of the models — not even the 00z HWRF — developed it today. Maybe it’ll go north of the islands instead of running over them if it’s a TS once it nears the Lesser Antilles on Friday.
If it really develops quick it's probably instafish.
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lsuhurricane
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Re: ATL: SEVEN - Models
If it really develops quick it's probably instafish.
Alternatively, it drives it further south in the short term due to UL ridging. How far south before ridging subsides and it turns NW is the key.
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tolakram
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Re: ATL: SEVEN - Models
12Z GFS
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AutoPenalti
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Re: ATL: SEVEN - Models
500mb trend
Last edited by AutoPenalti on Wed Sep 14, 2022 11:23 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
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tolakram
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Re: ATL: SEVEN - Models
TT stuck again. From weather.us
Starts deepening after crossing PR, moving NW.
Starts deepening after crossing PR, moving NW.
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Re: ATL: SEVEN - Models
12z GFS showing a stall near or over PR most of Sunday afternoon through midday Monday and then a hard right after about 144 hours toward recurve.
Last edited by BobHarlem on Wed Sep 14, 2022 11:24 am, edited 2 times in total.
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tolakram
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Re: ATL: SEVEN - Models
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Re: ATL: SEVEN - Models
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Re: ATL: SEVEN - Models
Up she goes.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.
Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
Re: ATL: SEVEN - Models
BobHarlem wrote:12z GFS showing a stall near or over PR most of Sunday afternoon through midday Monday and then a hard right after about 144 hours toward recurve.
Naturally, the 12z GFS could be correct, but note this is the first run that showed any development, so this run looks markedly different than previous. It is also much slower and much further NE than the CMC, UK and Euro. In it's favor is recent performance with Earl curve
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Kingarabian
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Re: ATL: SEVEN - Models
12z CMC hours 126-192. Moving west but hard not to see it getting picked up here.
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Kingarabian
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Re: ATL: SEVEN - Models
12z UKMET
It and the CMC are the two models that are left of the consensus.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 96L ANALYSED POSITION : 16.5N 49.5W
ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL962022
LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 14.09.2022 0 16.5N 49.5W 1010 36
0000UTC 15.09.2022 12 16.5N 52.2W 1010 34
1200UTC 15.09.2022 24 16.3N 54.8W 1010 36
0000UTC 16.09.2022 36 16.7N 56.0W 1009 39
1200UTC 16.09.2022 48 16.7N 59.0W 1009 36
0000UTC 17.09.2022 60 17.5N 61.6W 1008 32
1200UTC 17.09.2022 72 17.8N 63.7W 1007 31
0000UTC 18.09.2022 84 18.4N 65.5W 1006 32
1200UTC 18.09.2022 96 18.5N 67.7W 1005 35
0000UTC 19.09.2022 108 19.4N 68.7W 1002 40
1200UTC 19.09.2022 120 20.6N 70.1W 999 52
0000UTC 20.09.2022 132 21.2N 71.5W 997 53
1200UTC 20.09.2022 144 22.0N 72.6W 998 48
ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL962022
LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 14.09.2022 0 16.5N 49.5W 1010 36
0000UTC 15.09.2022 12 16.5N 52.2W 1010 34
1200UTC 15.09.2022 24 16.3N 54.8W 1010 36
0000UTC 16.09.2022 36 16.7N 56.0W 1009 39
1200UTC 16.09.2022 48 16.7N 59.0W 1009 36
0000UTC 17.09.2022 60 17.5N 61.6W 1008 32
1200UTC 17.09.2022 72 17.8N 63.7W 1007 31
0000UTC 18.09.2022 84 18.4N 65.5W 1006 32
1200UTC 18.09.2022 96 18.5N 67.7W 1005 35
0000UTC 19.09.2022 108 19.4N 68.7W 1002 40
1200UTC 19.09.2022 120 20.6N 70.1W 999 52
0000UTC 20.09.2022 132 21.2N 71.5W 997 53
1200UTC 20.09.2022 144 22.0N 72.6W 998 48
It and the CMC are the two models that are left of the consensus.
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Re: ATL: SEVEN - Models
Kingarabian wrote:12z UKMETTROPICAL DEPRESSION 96L ANALYSED POSITION : 16.5N 49.5W
ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL962022
LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 14.09.2022 0 16.5N 49.5W 1010 36
0000UTC 15.09.2022 12 16.5N 52.2W 1010 34
1200UTC 15.09.2022 24 16.3N 54.8W 1010 36
0000UTC 16.09.2022 36 16.7N 56.0W 1009 39
1200UTC 16.09.2022 48 16.7N 59.0W 1009 36
0000UTC 17.09.2022 60 17.5N 61.6W 1008 32
1200UTC 17.09.2022 72 17.8N 63.7W 1007 31
0000UTC 18.09.2022 84 18.4N 65.5W 1006 32
1200UTC 18.09.2022 96 18.5N 67.7W 1005 35
0000UTC 19.09.2022 108 19.4N 68.7W 1002 40
1200UTC 19.09.2022 120 20.6N 70.1W 999 52
0000UTC 20.09.2022 132 21.2N 71.5W 997 53
1200UTC 20.09.2022 144 22.0N 72.6W 998 48
It and the CMC are the two models that are left of the consensus.
And, the 06z Euro is also left of the consensus due to its forward speed. We'll see what the 12z has to say.
Also worth mentioning that despite the northward motion of the GFS, it does not necessarily mean recurve, as there isn't any eastward component thru 240 hrs
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Re: ATL: SEVEN - Models
NHC is shifting the official track west following the flow around the Bermuda high initially.
After 72 hours some of the model runs diverge, a TUTT digging for a stronger system might end the debate early.
The dry shear blowing the cloud tops off to the southeast will start shifting around and blow them due south if the shear persists and then there will be an opportunity for development.
After 72 hours some of the model runs diverge, a TUTT digging for a stronger system might end the debate early.
The dry shear blowing the cloud tops off to the southeast will start shifting around and blow them due south if the shear persists and then there will be an opportunity for development.
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Re: ATL: SEVEN - Models
BobHarlem wrote:12z GFS showing a stall near or over PR most of Sunday afternoon through midday Monday and then a hard right after about 144 hours toward recurve.
But then brings it back east with 965ish storm hitting the east end of Long Island.
So between the models we now have anything from a landfall in northern Mexico (the CMC has the storm tracking WSW in the western gulf when it cuts off) to Montauk to Bermuda. Or it could just fizzle out. The picture is just a bit muddled
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ElectricStorm
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Re: ATL: SEVEN - Models
12z HMON and HWRF are running. So far HMON is quite a bit faster, near 61W at hour 54, while HWRF is at 58W at hour 57
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