ATL: IAN - Models

[Kazmit]

Shooting through the channel now, but way weaker than before. Could be the beginning of the GFS caving to the Euro.

[cheezyWXguy]

https://i.imgur.com/6tpdQq7.png

It’s doing better, but no way this is only 991mb after making it’s way through the western Caribbean. Suspect it’s still having some issues figuring out how to handle development, and stronger system probably would have shifted even further north. Regardless of where this run ultimately ends up, this is a pretty substantial cave

[tolakram]

[Iceresistance]

https://i.imgur.com/6tpdQq7.png

It’s doing better, but no way this is only 991mb after making it’s way through the western Caribbean. Suspect it’s still having some issues figuring out how to handle development, and stronger system probably would have shifted even further north. Regardless of where this run ultimately ends up, this is a pretty substantial cave

The Models are not usually good at the RI potential, how are the SHIPS showing?

[tolakram]

Still moving NW

[tolakram]

Here's the slowdown.

[pgoss11]

Here's the slowdown.
https://i.imgur.com/At1vmsj.png

Didn’t the 06z stall it in the central gulf?

[skyline385]

https://i.imgur.com/6tpdQq7.png

It’s doing better, but no way this is only 991mb after making it’s way through the western Caribbean. Suspect it’s still having some issues figuring out how to handle development, and stronger system probably would have shifted even further north. Regardless of where this run ultimately ends up, this is a pretty substantial cave

The Models are not usually good at the RI potential, how are the SHIPS showing?

SHIPS was extremely bullish yesterday, Webb pointed out that it was showing a potential intensity of 170 kts lol


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[tolakram]

Slow north/nw crawl.

[tolakram]

north

[Iceresistance]

It’s doing better, but no way this is only 991mb after making it’s way through the western Caribbean. Suspect it’s still having some issues figuring out how to handle development, and stronger system probably would have shifted even further north. Regardless of where this run ultimately ends up, this is a pretty substantial cave

The Models are not usually good at the RI potential, how are the SHIPS showing?

SHIPS was extremely bullish yesterday, Webb pointed out that it was showing a potential intensity of 170 kts lol


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Good lord! That is 195 mph, would break all the records IF this verified. Goes to show the extreme instability in that area.

I'm also beginning to worry that we could have a Delta 2020 repeat.

[skyline385]

Probably going to be a weak-ish run with that dry air and shear in the Gulf, barely any moisture to its west




Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1572981979368550401

[Stellar]

It's unfortunate there is not a "GFS-Quick" option based on 24-hour snapshots like the Euro version on TT. While I enjoy the frame-by-frame suspense like everyone else, sometimes you just want the headline and move on to other stuff...

[toad strangler]

The trapping ridge re-build the GFS has been showing for a day plus is pretty much gone at hour 144

[chris_fit]

12Z CMC looks like it's gonna hit SFL

[LarryWx]

Those Euro ensembles don’t make much sense for September. Looks like more of an October track. My bet is still something like what the TVCN shows, i.e less of a northeast turn and more north across the EGOM or East-Central GOM.

I agree with you about late Sept climo not favoring the NE tracks across the S half of FL. But that's an Octoberlike upper trough coming into the E US days 4-6 before lifting out. Notice that the faster members are mainly the ones that turn NE across S FL. So, it appears that a big key will be speed of 98L. If it goes faster, it will have a better chance to get caught by the upper trough and move NE over the S half of FL. But, if not fast enough, it very likely won't and would instead likely hit the N Gulf coast anywhere from the FL Big Bend westward to LA.

Also, we will be on the Sep/Oct cusp by the time the action takes place next week. There cannot be any real climatological difference between 9/28 and 10/1

Keep in mind that the progged 98-L date of genesis (which the NHC 10 day climo maps go by) is ~9/25, which is right in the middle of the 9/21-30 period. So, if one is going to pick a 10 day map to use to see past tracks for those that have genesis during 9/21-30, the 9/21-30 climo map is nearly ideal and is better than using any other map such as 10/1-10. But even so as I said in other posts, using climo for 9/21-30 geneses doesn't mean they should exclude a track over S FL. Climo means more like saying the best bet without knowing the current progged setup is to say a W Caribbean TC during that period would be much more likely to track north of Tampa than south of Tampa. But even that is saying that per climo it still has a nontrivial chance to track south of Tampa per the 9/21-30 genesis climo map, itself.

[SFLcane]

***Caution*** using the GFS see my post above from @AndyHazelton

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1572981979368550401

[cheezyWXguy]

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1572981979368550401?s=20&t=l4XYLa344cm773QK23K-tQ

Glad to see someone of much greater credibility expressing the same suspicions as me

[toad strangler]

12z GFS with a NE turn at 156 hrs