ATL: IAN - Models

[FLpanhandle91]

18z GFS still south of Euro.

[skyline385]

18Z ICON with a small east shift, would probably just scrap SFL if it was the full run

[Teban54]

Through 78 hrs, looks like 18z GFS is stronger than 12z, with a further north track and moving slower. The 78 hr position on the 18z run is due E of 12z's.

[skyline385]

18z GFS still south of Euro.

The GFS is actually further east than the last two runs, its heading towards Cuba

[skyline385]

 https://twitter.com/WxPatel/status/1573070962853138433

[Jelmergraaff]

All of you do realize that these models could just as quickly trend back west correct?

Plus the fact that even with the more easterly trend today very few models actually show 98L avoiding any US impact (so southeast of Florida).

[Jelmergraaff]

GFS 18z manages to let 98L pass exactly between Cuba and the Yucatan, so very little land interaction before entering the Gulf.

[skyline385]

Here is the center relocation on 18Z GFS, partly explains its west bias

[Hurricane Mike]

The 18Z GFS seems to be coming a *bit* closer to the EURO atleast before the Gulf.

[Jelmergraaff]

Here is the center relocation on 18Z GFS, partly explains its west bias

https://s5.gifyu.com/images/gfs_z850_vort_watl_fh36-78.gif

Compared to the previous runs already very well organized when entering the Gulf, although shear may eventually decrease the strength once it gets more to the north. Also seems to be a quicker solution than the previous ones, where it almost stalled in the GOM.

[Pelicane]

Here is the center relocation on 18Z GFS, partly explains its west bias

https://s5.gifyu.com/images/gfs_z850_vort_watl_fh36-78.gif

I believe that's the mid-level center it wants to jump to. With the northernly shear effecting in the shorter-term it's not a total non-possibility, although it's probably overdone on the model.

[jfk08c]

Looks like the big bend area of Florida for the GFS this run

[skyline385]

Here is the center relocation on 18Z GFS, partly explains its west bias

https://s5.gifyu.com/images/gfs_z850_vort_watl_fh36-78.gif

I believe that's the mid-level center it wants to jump to. With the northernly shear effecting in the shorter-term it's not a total non-possibility, although it's probably overdone on the model.

This is right before it relocates, no MLC here (wind barbs are mid-level)

[pgoss11]

One thing I’ve noticed is the GFS 18z is much stronger than the 12z.

[wx98]

Looks like the big bend area of Florida for the GFS this run

That makes better sense. I'd say anywhere from the Big Bend to Key Largo should be ready at this point.

[Pelicane]

Essentially what the GFS wants to do is refocus the center to the more vigorous MLC. This is the 500 mb plot, and if you compare it the 850 mb one you'll see the two are offset.

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/wxpatel/status/1573070962853138433

[SFLcane]

Essentially what the GFS wants to do is refocus the center to the more vigorous MLC. This is the 500 mb plot, and if you compare it the 850 mb one you'll see the two are offset.
https://imgur.com/KSqPSa8

Great post!

[skyline385]

Essentially what the GFS wants to do is refocus the center to the more vigorous MLC. This is the 500 mb plot, and if you compare it the 850 mb one you'll see the two are offset.
https://imgur.com/KSqPSa8

So here is the Z500 before the center relocates, I dont think this classifies as a vigorous MLC personally. There isnt even a vortmax visible, it forms in the next screen when the LLC relocates which doesnt seem right

[Kazmit]