93S INVEST 220317 1200 9.3S 124.8E SHEM 15 0
SIO: CHARLOTTE - Ex-TC
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Yellow Evan
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Re: SIO: CHARLOTTE - Tropical Cyclone
Fairly tight core even if the eye isn’t warm. Would not surprise me if this was stronger than Dvorak indicates.
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Re: SIO: CHARLOTTE - Severe Tropical Cyclone
This just exploded out of nowhere. It might already be a Cat 3. The 2022 SHem season is really testing the local agencies with all of these rapidly intensifying pinhole storms that bomb out in their first 24-48 hours.
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I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
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wxman57
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Re: SIO: CHARLOTTE - Severe Tropical Cyclone
We initiated advisories on it Saturday evening, so it didn't just explode out of nowhere. It was clearly a depression Saturday evening. BoM was ignoring it, saying no chance of development Saturday. They don't initiate advisories until a depression is close to becoming a TC. Now they say 90 kts, which looks high, to me. Eye is filed in now. Maybe 80 kts now.
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StormTracker89
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Re: SIO: CHARLOTTE - Severe Tropical Cyclone
aspen wrote:This just exploded out of nowhere. It might already be a Cat 3. The 2022 SHem season is really testing the local agencies with all of these rapidly intensifying pinhole storms that bomb out in their first 24-48 hours.
Hardly out of nowhere. JTWC started warning on it well in advance of ABOM and called the RI over 36hrs in advance, forecasting a peak of at least 90kts. So it was in fact expected and forecasted.
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Yellow Evan
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Re: SIO: CHARLOTTE - Severe Tropical Cyclone
wxman57 wrote:We initiated advisories on it Saturday evening, so it didn't just explode out of nowhere. It was clearly a depression Saturday evening. BoM was ignoring it, saying no chance of development Saturday. They don't initiate advisories until a depression is close to becoming a TC. Now they say 90 kts, which looks high, to me. Eye is filed in now. Maybe 80 kts now.
90 knots is T5.5 on the Dvorak scale for most 10 min agencies. And at 0z at least the storm warranted that rating. It’s just one of those fast up and down storms.
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Yellow Evan
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cycloneye
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Re: SIO: CHARLOTTE - Severe Tropical Cyclone
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Sciencerocks
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InfernoFlameCat
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Re: SIO: CHARLOTTE - Ex-TC
These always seem to get shredded incredibly fast, faster than anywhere else in the world IMO.
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I am by no means a professional. DO NOT look at my forecasts for official information or make decisions based on what I post.
Goal: to become a registered expert over tropical and subtropical cyclones.
Goal: to become a registered expert over tropical and subtropical cyclones.
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