#3 Postby Hayabusa » Sun May 01, 2022 5:12 pm
Now low but can it really surprise us?
ABPW10 PGTW 012100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/012100Z-020600ZMAY2022//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 5.2N
128.6E, APPROXIMATELY 215 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DAVAO, PHILIPPINES.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A COMPACT
DISTURBANCE WITH A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
AND FLARING, DISORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE SYSTEM. A PARTIAL
011631Z AMSR2 89GHZ COLOR COMPOSITE MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS SHALLOW
BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED LLCC. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
ALONG THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE SYSTEM INDICATE INCREASING (10-15
KNOTS) INFLOW INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE DISTURBANCE.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH EASTERLY
DIFFLUENT FLOW AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE NOT
INITIALIZING THIS SMALL SYSTEM WELL AND DO NOT INDICATE ANY
SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION, HOWEVER, THEY DO TRACK THE DISTURBANCE
GENERALLY WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 12 TO 18 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
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