EPAC: AGATHA - Remnants

[skyline385]

Whats the NOAA2 mission that just took off?

[aspen]

I think Agatha is about to have a Delta-esqe collapse. It has been struggling to clear its eye despite a very powerful core, and its IR presentation has been stagnant for hours. It’s also moving into slightly higher shear that could rip apart the already slightly oblong core.

[KirbyDude25]

Whats the NOAA2 mission that just took off?

No clue. It's over Nebraska and heading north, I doubt it's flying to Agatha

[cycloneye]

The next plane departs on Monday early in the morning at 7:00 AM EDT.

FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 72
A. 30/1530Z
B. AFXXX 0201E AGATHA
C. 30/1100Z
D. 15.3N 97.1W
E. 30/1500Z TO 30/1830Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

[Ubuntwo]

I think Agatha is about to have a Delta-esqe collapse. It has been struggling to clear its eye despite a very powerful core, and its IR presentation has been stagnant for hours. It’s also moving into slightly higher shear that could rip apart the already slightly oblong core.

Effective shear will decrease through tomorrow as the cyclone picks up speed in a direction aligned with the shear vector. Doesn't mean a core collapse is impossible. Just putting it out there.

[Ubuntwo]

VDM has no eye character

RAGGED CENTER, NO DEFINED STRUCTURE
HAIL ENCOUNTERED INBOUND NE SIDE OF STORM CENTER AREA

[KirbyDude25]

VDM has no eye character

RAGGED CENTER, NO DEFINED STRUCTURE
HAIL ENCOUNTERED INBOUND NE SIDE OF STORM CENTER AREA

They did find hail though, which is pretty uncommon. I think that happened in 2020 with Eta or Iota (can't remember which)

[Yellow Evan]

 https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1531033903284240387

[Yellow Evan]

T5.5.

[aspen]

The effects of shear are becoming more and more apparent with each passing hour. It won’t be long before parts of the circulation become exposed, looking at how bare half of the storm is.

[InfernoFlameCat]

The effects of shear are becoming more and more apparent with each passing hour. It won’t be long before parts of the circulation become exposed, looking at how bare half of the storm is.

I doubt that. That would take a lot to expose such a vigorous core.

[Astromanía]

And shear is forecast to relax, isn't?

[skyline385]

The core seems to be maintaining its spin but the outer blob definitely seems to be getting sheared away, can't tell if it's weakening or not tbh

[Homie J]

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/tcweb/dynami ... .080pc.jpg Core seems a bit sheared

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Agatha Intermediate Advisory Number 8A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012022
700 PM CDT Sun May 29 2022

...AGATHA MOVING FASTER TOWARD THE NORTHEAST...
...WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BEGIN DETERIORATING IN SOUTHERN
MEXICO OVERNIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.3N 98.4W
ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM SW OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...964 MB...28.47 INCHES

[cycloneye]

Would be 6th mayor in May.

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1531064109881364480

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/EarthUncutTV/status/1531064489822810113

[cycloneye]

Remains at 95KT.

EP, 01, 2022053000, , BEST, 0, 143N, 984W, 95, 964, HU

[skyline385]

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/tcweb/dynamic/products/tc22/EPAC/01E.AGATHA/ssmis/91h/20220529.2220.f18.91h.01E.AGATHA.90kts.970mb.14N.98.8W.080pc.jpg Core seems a bit sheared

Seems there was some improvement in the core but not much

[zzh]

Westerly shear has destroyed Agatha's core.