Tropical Storm Celia Discussion Number 41
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032022
300 PM MDT Sun Jun 26 2022
The storm continues to exhibit a well-organized cloud pattern on
satellite imagery, with a low-level eye-like feature and well
defined spiral cloud lines. However, the associated convection is
not very deep and most of the heavier showers and thunderstorms are
confined to the southeastern portion of the circulation. A
scatterometer pass missed most of the system but did show that
tropical-storm-force winds extended out about 90 n mi over the
eastern semicircle. The intensity is held at 45 kt for this
advisory, in accord with the latest Dvorak estimates from TAFB and
SAB.
Celia has continued to move west-northwestward, or 290/6 kt, but is
just slightly north of the previous track. A mid-level high
pressure ridge to the north of the tropical cyclone should maintain
this direction of motion, with a little acceleration, for the next
few days. The official track forecast follows the corrected
dynamical model consensus, HCCA, very closely.
The cyclone is crossing the gradient of SST and moving over
progressively cooler waters. This, along with a drier and more
stable air mass should cause Celia to degenerate into a remnant low
pressure system within a couple of days. The official intensity
forecast is at or above the model consensus.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 26/2100Z 19.5N 114.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 27/0600Z 20.1N 115.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 27/1800Z 20.9N 117.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 28/0600Z 21.7N 119.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 28/1800Z 22.6N 121.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 29/0600Z 23.2N 123.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 29/1800Z 23.7N 125.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Pasch
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