ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Subtrop]

AL, 90, 2022092212, , BEST, 0, 152N, 160W, 25, 1008, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 150, 90, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 031, SPAWNINVEST, al742022 to al902022,

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/

[Hurricane2022]

This invest likely will be Hermine, i think

[ElectricStorm]

This will be a very unusual track, probably won't become anything big but should become a TS. Out of the 3 active invests I think this one has the best shot to develop first and take Hermine

[Sciencerocks]

[cycloneye]

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
Showers and thunderstorms located near the west coast of Africa are
associated with a tropical wave that has emerged over the warm
waters of the far eastern Atlantic. Environmental conditions are
forecast to be conducive for some development, and a tropical
depression could form by this weekend while the system moves slowly
northward, between west Africa and the Cabo Verde Islands.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

[CrazyC83]

Can this just wait, or let 98L develop now, so that we don't get stuck with another infamous "I" storm? At least Hermine would be a first-generation retirement and there are lots of replacement options.

[HurricaneBelle]

Can this just wait, or let 98L develop now, so that we don't get stuck with another infamous "I" storm? At least Hermine would be a first-generation retirement and there are lots of replacement options.

Yeah but we already had a Hermine hit Florida 6 years ago which broke the state's hurricane-free streak so let that name live on its own.

[cycloneye]

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A broad area of low pressure, associated with a tropical wave and
located about 100 miles west of Dakar, Senegal, is producing a
disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms off the coasts of
Senegal and Mauritania. Although the system is pulling in nearby
dry air, environmental conditions are forecast to otherwise be
conducive for some development, and a tropical depression could form
by this weekend while the system moves northward at about 10 mph,
parallel to the coast of west Africa.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

[Sciencerocks]

[Teban54]

Poor 90L isn't getting any attention, but over the last few hours convection has become more concentrated near the center. Still a bit disorganized, but it may be getting there.

The race to be named Hermine will be interesting.

[cycloneye]

[Hurricane2022]

This invest likely will be Hermine, i think

Maybe no

[Teban54]

Up to 70/70

2. Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A broad area of low pressure, located roughly in between the Cabo
Verde islands to the east and the west coast of Africa, is producing
a large area of showers and thunderstorms. While this activity is
gradually becoming better organized, earlier satellite wind data
indicated the circulation remained fairly broad. Environmental
conditions are forecast to be generally conducive for some
development over the next day or so, and a tropical depression is
likely to form by this weekend while the system moves northward at
about 10 mph, parallel to the coast of west Africa.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

[Sciencerocks]

[us89]

Appears this is going to lose the Hermine race…

[Teban54]

Appears this is going to lose the Hermine race…

Clearly 90L won't give up the fight. If anything, it looks healthier than TD9 at the moment:

[tomatkins]

Appears this is going to lose the Hermine race…

Its gonna be a close call. This looks like a TD right now and getting stronger (although looks can sometimes be deceiving), while TD9 looks like its gonna take a while to get organized with multiple low level centerss.

[tolakram]

saved RGB loop

[Iceresistance]

Now 80/80

1. Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with an area of low
pressure located between the Cabo Verde Islands and the west coast
of Africa is showing increased signs of organization. Environmental
conditions are forecast to be generally conducive for further
development during the next day or so, and a tropical depression is
likely to form while the system moves northward at about 10 mph,
roughly parallel to the coast of west Africa.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

[Iceresistance]

ASCAT-B and ASCAT-C just missed the system, but has found a lot of 25 knot barbs in the western fringe. There is a chance that this is a TS.