EPAC: PAINE - Post-Tropical

[zzzh]

EP, 98, 2022100118, , BEST, 0, 146N, 1132W, 20, 1009, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 120, 90, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 029, SPAWNINVEST, ep722022 to ep982022,

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk

[Netzero9455]

Where'd this come from? It wasn't even in the TWO a day or 2 ago was it?

[zeehag]

Where'd this come from? It wasn't even in the TWO a day or 2 ago was it?

two days ago this was a little obnoxious yellow blob in the pacific ocean.
looks like a 1-2 punch for mexico, if this one develops

[Sciencerocks]

Looks like a tropical cyclone to me.

[Yellow Evan]

Given we have confirmation since yesterday of a closer center and the increase in organization since then, classifiable.

[Yellow Evan]

South-Southwest of the Baja California Peninsula:
Showers and thunderstorms continue to become better organized in
association with an area of low pressure located several hundred
miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula. Satellite imagery also indicates that the surface
circulation has become better defined. If these trends continue, a
tropical depression is likely to form Monday or Monday night while
the system moves slowly northward during the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

[Yellow Evan]

TXPZ29 KNES 030552
TCSENP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (98E)

B. 03/0530Z

C. 14.7N

D. 111.5W

E. THREE/GOES-W

F. T1.0/1.0

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...GREATER THAN 2/10 BANDING RESULTS IN A DT OF 1.0. MET AND
PT ARE ALSO 1.0. THE FT IS BASED ON THE DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...CLARK

[Yellow Evan]

TXPZ29 KNES 031748
TCSENP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (98E)

B. 03/1730Z

C. 15.7N

D. 111.8W

E. THREE/GOES-W

F. T1.5/1.5

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...CIRCULARLY DEFINED CLOUD LINES AND A CENTER LESS THAN 1.25
DEGREES EAST OF A LARGE COLD OVERCAST RESULTS IN A DT OF 2.0 USING THE
SHEAR PATTERN. MET IS 1.0. PT IS 1.5. THE FT IS BASED ON THE PT BECAUSE
CONVECTION HAS BEEN PULSING.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...TURK

[Yellow Evan]

South-Southwest of the Baja California Peninsula:
Showers and thunderstorms continue in association with an area of
low pressure located several hundred miles south-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Although the
thunderstorm activity is currently displaced to the southwest the
low-level center, only a slight increase in organization would
result in the formation of a tropical depression later today or
tonight. The system is forecast to move slowly northward or
northward-northwestward during the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

[zzzh]

TS Paine very soon.

[Yellow Evan]

Good to go.

[Sciencerocks]

[Teban54]

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1577035826587832321

[Category5Kaiju]

:lol:
https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1577035826587832321?s=20&t=biIx43oThQlk9KvU948rGA

Wait what the heck..."Paine" is a name on the EPAC list? Haven't really been paying much attention to the EPAC names compared to the Atlantic ngl, but yeah, um, ok. Ouch.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Storm Paine Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172022
300 PM MDT Mon Oct 03 2022

Satellite imagery indicates that the low pressure system located
several hundred miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the
Baja California peninsula has been producing convection for the
better part of the last 18 to 24 hours, though it has been somewhat
sheared off to the west of the low-level circulation. CI numbers
from TAFB and SAB are 2.0 and 1.5, respectively, and recently the
convection has built slightly closer to the center. An earlier
AMSR2 microwave pass from 03/0913 UTC showed improved banding
structure compared to yesterday. A 03/1638 UTC ASCAT-B pass shows a
well-defined closed circulation, with wind vectors that support
maximum sustained winds near 35 kt. On this basis, the disturbance
is upgraded to Tropical Storm Paine. The ASCAT data indicates that
Paine is a small cyclone, with tropical storm force winds extending
outward only about 30 n mi from the center.

Paine is located in an environment of moderate vertical wind shear
and warm sea-surface temperatures. However, relatively dry mid-level
air is present over this portion of the Pacific. The dry air should
limit significant strengthening over the first 24 to 36 hours,
while the wind shear remains moderate. Beyond 36 hours, wind shear
increases further and the mid-level air becomes even drier. This
should lead to weakening, and by 60 hours, Paine is likely to lose
all of its deep convection and become a remnant low.

The initial motion is 345/5 kt. The cyclone should continue on a
similar heading for the next couple of days. A mid-level ridge
located to the north of Paine after that time should induce a
gradual turn to the west. The cyclone will also lose its convection
at around that time, with the shallow remnant low moving westward
with the trade wind flow.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/2100Z 15.9N 112.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 04/0600Z 16.4N 112.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 04/1800Z 17.3N 112.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 05/0600Z 18.1N 113.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 05/1800Z 18.5N 113.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 06/0600Z 18.7N 114.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 06/1800Z 18.8N 114.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Hagen/Brown

[AnnularCane]

Kind of an unfortunate name for the little guy, I guess.

[ElectricStorm]

Interesting fact: The worst flood on record for my area in NE Oklahoma was from the remnants of a storm with this name, Cat 2 Paine in 1986. I wasn't around for that one of course but seeing how bad the 2019 flood was (which is the second worst on record here and by far the worst I've seen here, half my town was underwater) it's hard to imagine how much more destructive the 1986 one was.

[Yellow Evan]

EP, 17, 2022100400, , BEST, 0, 163N, 1121W, 35, 1006, TS, 34, NEQ, 20, 30, 30, 30, 1012, 120, 20, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, PAINE, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 029,

[Iceresistance]

Kind of an unfortunate name for the little guy, I guess.

Welcome to the House of Paine! (Tried to autocorrect to Pain)

(Sorry, I could not resist putting it out.)

[Category5Kaiju]

Kind of an unfortunate name for the little guy, I guess.

Welcome to the House of Paine! (Tried to autocorrect to Pain)

(Sorry, I could not resist putting it out.)

Jump around! Jump up, jump up and get down!

Well, we can say for sure that Paine's intensity will jump up and get down.