ATL: LISA - Models
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Iceresistance
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ATL: LISA - Models
Only model runs here related to 95L please.
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
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cycloneye
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models
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ElectricStorm
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models
Ships likes it
GFS version *
* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST AL952022 10/28/22 12 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 21 22 22 25 30 38 44 49 53 57 61 65 70 76 81
V (KT) LAND 20 20 21 22 22 25 30 38 44 49 53 57 61 65 70 50 41
V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 21 21 22 22 22 23 25 27 29 31 32 33 29 31
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 4 4 8 10 9 8 11 5 9 8 12 11 12 10 4 6 5
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 3 2 0 0 -3 -5 -3 -3 -3 0 0 3 2 7 5 7
SHEAR DIR 184 113 169 199 230 234 284 295 310 274 283 281 288 251 214 146 133
SST (C) 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.1 29.0 28.9 29.0 29.2 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.9 30.0 29.1
POT. INT. (KT) 149 150 152 152 152 152 150 149 148 150 154 162 165 165 170 172 155
ADJ. POT. INT. 141 142 144 144 144 144 141 139 140 141 147 157 162 165 170 172 155
200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.1 -53.1 -53.4 -53.5 -53.3 -53.5 -53.5 -53.9 -53.4 -53.5 -53.2 -53.5 -53.2 -53.5 -53.3 -54.0
200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 6 5 5 5 4 5 5 6 6 8 8 8 6 7 5
700-500 MB RH 71 69 69 71 71 75 76 71 67 64 60 56 59 62 65 68 69
MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 38 46 45 47 42 57 36 30 20 24 27 20 34 37 48 66 56
200 MB DIV 88 75 66 38 40 44 25 24 24 38 1 1 -8 0 6 76 80
700-850 TADV 2 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 -1 1 -3 -8 -4 2 5 7
LAND (KM) 156 179 204 218 205 208 239 284 313 173 100 91 89 217 151 -130 26
LAT (DEG N) 12.0 12.2 12.4 12.6 12.7 13.2 13.8 14.5 15.3 16.2 17.0 17.2 17.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 66.0 66.3 66.6 67.0 67.3 68.0 68.6 69.1 69.7 70.7 72.1 74.0 76.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 6 7 9 10 12 14 15 15 14
HEAT CONTENT 29 39 49 57 56 54 56 58 56 52 38 49 77 52 35 9 16
FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 1
T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 603 (MEAN=620)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.5 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.0
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16.
SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -1. 2. 8. 16. 21. 26. 31. 35. 40. 45. 47. 50. 50.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 9. 9. 8. 7. 8. 9. 11.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -7. -6.
PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 1. 2. 3.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1.
700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -7.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2.
GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 2. 5. 10. 18. 24. 29. 33. 37. 41. 45. 50. 56. 61.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 12.0 66.0
** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952022 INVEST 10/28/22 12 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.82 999.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 46.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.30 999.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.30 999.0
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 67.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.87 999.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.6 2.9 to -2.9 0.23 999.0
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.2 28.3 to 146.3 0.80 999.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 61.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.42 999.0
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 1.6% 5.3% 3.7% 1.4% 0.1% 1.5% 1.8% 2.5%
Bayesian: 0.8% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.4%
Consensus: 0.8% 2.0% 1.3% 0.5% 0.1% 0.5% 0.6% 1.0%
DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952022 INVEST 10/28/22 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952022 INVEST 10/28/2022 12 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)
** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 20 21 22 22 25 30 38 44 49 53 57 61 65 70 50 41
18HR AGO 20 19 20 21 21 24 29 37 43 48 52 56 60 64 69 49 40
12HR AGO 20 17 16 17 17 20 25 33 39 44 48 52 56 60 65 45 36
6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT
IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT
IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT
* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST AL952022 10/28/22 12 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 21 22 22 25 30 38 44 49 53 57 61 65 70 76 81
V (KT) LAND 20 20 21 22 22 25 30 38 44 49 53 57 61 65 70 50 41
V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 21 21 22 22 22 23 25 27 29 31 32 33 29 31
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 4 4 8 10 9 8 11 5 9 8 12 11 12 10 4 6 5
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 3 2 0 0 -3 -5 -3 -3 -3 0 0 3 2 7 5 7
SHEAR DIR 184 113 169 199 230 234 284 295 310 274 283 281 288 251 214 146 133
SST (C) 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.1 29.0 28.9 29.0 29.2 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.9 30.0 29.1
POT. INT. (KT) 149 150 152 152 152 152 150 149 148 150 154 162 165 165 170 172 155
ADJ. POT. INT. 141 142 144 144 144 144 141 139 140 141 147 157 162 165 170 172 155
200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.1 -53.1 -53.4 -53.5 -53.3 -53.5 -53.5 -53.9 -53.4 -53.5 -53.2 -53.5 -53.2 -53.5 -53.3 -54.0
200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 6 5 5 5 4 5 5 6 6 8 8 8 6 7 5
700-500 MB RH 71 69 69 71 71 75 76 71 67 64 60 56 59 62 65 68 69
MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 38 46 45 47 42 57 36 30 20 24 27 20 34 37 48 66 56
200 MB DIV 88 75 66 38 40 44 25 24 24 38 1 1 -8 0 6 76 80
700-850 TADV 2 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 -1 1 -3 -8 -4 2 5 7
LAND (KM) 156 179 204 218 205 208 239 284 313 173 100 91 89 217 151 -130 26
LAT (DEG N) 12.0 12.2 12.4 12.6 12.7 13.2 13.8 14.5 15.3 16.2 17.0 17.2 17.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 66.0 66.3 66.6 67.0 67.3 68.0 68.6 69.1 69.7 70.7 72.1 74.0 76.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 6 7 9 10 12 14 15 15 14
HEAT CONTENT 29 39 49 57 56 54 56 58 56 52 38 49 77 52 35 9 16
FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 1
T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 603 (MEAN=620)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.5 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.0
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16.
SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -1. 2. 8. 16. 21. 26. 31. 35. 40. 45. 47. 50. 50.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 9. 9. 8. 7. 8. 9. 11.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -7. -6.
PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 1. 2. 3.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1.
700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -7.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2.
GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 2. 5. 10. 18. 24. 29. 33. 37. 41. 45. 50. 56. 61.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 12.0 66.0
** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952022 INVEST 10/28/22 12 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.82 999.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 46.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.30 999.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.30 999.0
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 67.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.87 999.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.6 2.9 to -2.9 0.23 999.0
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.2 28.3 to 146.3 0.80 999.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 61.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.42 999.0
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 1.6% 5.3% 3.7% 1.4% 0.1% 1.5% 1.8% 2.5%
Bayesian: 0.8% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.4%
Consensus: 0.8% 2.0% 1.3% 0.5% 0.1% 0.5% 0.6% 1.0%
DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952022 INVEST 10/28/22 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952022 INVEST 10/28/2022 12 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)
** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 20 21 22 22 25 30 38 44 49 53 57 61 65 70 50 41
18HR AGO 20 19 20 21 21 24 29 37 43 48 52 56 60 64 69 49 40
12HR AGO 20 17 16 17 17 20 25 33 39 44 48 52 56 60 65 45 36
6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT
IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT
IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT
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I am in no way a professional. Take what I say with a grain of salt as I could be totally wrong. Please refer to the NHC, NWS, or SPC for official information.
Boomer Sooner!
Boomer Sooner!
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Category5Kaiju
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models
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Unless explicitly stated, all info in my posts is based on my own opinions and observations. Tropical storms and hurricanes can be extremely dangerous. Do not think you can beat Mother Nature. Refer to an accredited weather research agency or meteorologist if you need to make serious decisions regarding an approaching storm.
Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models
Salute!
Hope the models hold true. Guess I will lose my bet on no named storms in November, as this thing looks a like a good bet.
We have a cold front coming down to the SE states, as is usual this time of year. And I had bet yesterday that it would keep the new TD down there or force it into central america. So maybe the models take that into account... hope so as we do not need another storm for Florida so soon after Ian.
Gums sends...
Hope the models hold true. Guess I will lose my bet on no named storms in November, as this thing looks a like a good bet.
We have a cold front coming down to the SE states, as is usual this time of year. And I had bet yesterday that it would keep the new TD down there or force it into central america. So maybe the models take that into account... hope so as we do not need another storm for Florida so soon after Ian.
Gums sends...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models
Now that the models have agreed on a nearly due W track into that little corner between Belize/Guatemala/Honduras, the modeled intensity has slowly been increasing. 12z GFS finally has a named storm again, and the 12z ICON has an upper end TS making landfall in a few days. I think 95L’s upper limit could be a slightly stronger version of Nana ‘20.
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Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models
12z HWRF shows 95L becoming TS Lisa by this time tomorrow afternoon, followed by one of the fastest modeled RI phases I've ever seen on any HWRF run, with a Cat 4 peak on Tuesday afternoon. Obviously this intensity and RI rate are both overblown, but it's another sign that the models are picking up on some moderate potential for 95L that'll need to be watched for closely.
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Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
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cycloneye
- Admin
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- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models
There is consensus to track towards Belize but after that, some of them have it redeveloping in EPAC like Bonnie and Julia.
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Iceresistance
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models
aspen wrote:12z HWRF shows 95L becoming TS Lisa by this time tomorrow afternoon, followed by one of the fastest modeled RI phases I've ever seen on any HWRF run, with a Cat 4 peak on Tuesday afternoon. Obviously this intensity and RI rate are both overblown, but it's another sign that the models are picking up on some moderate potential for 95L that'll need to be watched for closely.
https://i.imgur.com/MRpvW8u.png
https://i.imgur.com/XnzGEsx.png
https://i.imgur.com/ctyHpR0.png
https://i.imgur.com/l4shp7d.png
It may pull a Delta 2020, with an extremely tiny core and explosively intensified from a TD to a CAT 4 in just 36 hours.
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
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Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models
Iceresistance wrote:aspen wrote:12z HWRF shows 95L becoming TS Lisa by this time tomorrow afternoon, followed by one of the fastest modeled RI phases I've ever seen on any HWRF run, with a Cat 4 peak on Tuesday afternoon. Obviously this intensity and RI rate are both overblown, but it's another sign that the models are picking up on some moderate potential for 95L that'll need to be watched for closely.
https://i.imgur.com/MRpvW8u.png
https://i.imgur.com/XnzGEsx.png
https://i.imgur.com/ctyHpR0.png
https://i.imgur.com/l4shp7d.png
It may pull a Delta 2020, with an extremely tiny core and explosively intensified from a TD to a CAT 4 in just 36 hours.
Similar to what happened with Delta, the HWRF shows 95L weakening due to a tiny bit of shear disrupting the core, but then it RIs again on approach to CA.
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Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
Re: ATL: FIFTEEN - Models
18z HWRF is back to very slow development. Couldn’t be more of a difference between these two most recent runs.
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Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
Re: ATL: LISA - Models
Today’s 12z HWRF shows a landfall intensity of 85kt/970mb on Wednesday night. I think this is a reasonable run because the simulated IR initialization looks quite close to what Lisa is now, and it doesn’t start to improve until tomorrow morning.
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Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
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tolakram
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Re: ATL: LISA - Models
12Z HWRF
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M a r k
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tolakram
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Re: ATL: LISA - Models
12Z GFS
12Z Euro
12Z Euro
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M a r k
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tolakram
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Re: ATL: LISA - Models
12Z ICON
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tolakram
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Re: ATL: LISA - Models
Experimental HAFS
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M a r k
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Re: ATL: LISA - Models
06z HWRF has Lisa survive into the BoC, but then it gets decapitated by shear as it travels further north.
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Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
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tolakram
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Re: ATL: LISA - Models
12Z GFS just a bit stronger and a little north.
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M a r k
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tolakram
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Re: ATL: LISA - Models
18Z HWRF, 10MB lower than previous run.
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M a r k
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tolakram
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Re: ATL: LISA - Models
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