ATL: HAROLD - Remnants - Discussion

[us89]

Parts of Arizona and Utah are about to have two tropical impacts from two different oceans in the span of a week. Wild stuff.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Remnants Of Harold Advisory Number 9
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD AL092023
1000 AM CDT Wed Aug 23 2023

...HAROLD CONTINUES TO WEAKEN WITH SURFACE LOW EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE BY LATE TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.4N 104.4W
ABOUT 155 MI...245 KM SE OF EL PASO TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...25 MPH...35 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 24 MPH...39 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Flood Watch is in effect across portions of the Trans-Pecos and
Big Bend regions of Texas. A small Flood Watch is in effect in the
vicinity of Ruidoso, New Mexico.

Interests in Southwestern U.S. and northern Mexico should continue
to monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the remnants of Harold were located near
latitude 30.4 North, longitude 104.4 West. The remnants are moving
toward the northwest near 24 mph (39 km/h) and this motion is
expected to continue today. The surface low is forecast to become
increasingly ill-defined, eventually being absorbed into a thermal
trough situated from northern Mexico into New Mexico. This process
make the surface reflection of Harold difficult to track beyond
this evening. Therefore, this will be the final advisory.

Maximum sustained winds are near 25 mph (35 km/h) with higher gusts.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Harold can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header TCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KWNH
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov.

RAINFALL: Harold is expected to produce additional rainfall amounts
of 1 to 2 inches with isolated storm totals of 4 inches across Trans
Pecos region of Texas today, mainly west of the Big Bend. Isolated
to widely scattered instances of flash flooding are possible.

In far northern Mexico, rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches with local
amounts of 4 inches are expected through today across northern
portions of Chihuahua. Isolated instances of flash flooding are
expected with landslides possible.

WIND: Winds could be particularly gusty in and near areas of
elevated terrain across far northern Mexico and west Texas through
Wednesday. Higher gusts could persist even after the surface system
dissipates.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the Weather Prediction
Center on this system.

$$
Carbin