Suptropical Storm 1 (Upgraded in Pre-season Reanalysis)

[InfernoFlameCat]

As long as the atmosphere cools above the storm as fast as the waters do, the storm will continue to get energy from the ocean through latent heat.

[InfernoFlameCat]

I can’t believe we are discussing a system like this on whether it will be named or not. Instead, we should be debating whether it is a hurricane or not.

[Sciencerocks]

If I had a gun to my head and I was forced to decide. Well, I'd say 65 knot hurricane for this. The eyewall is pretty complete, convection is decent and it reminds me of systems that are 65-75 knots that I've tracked in the pass.

I'll add that this is better looking then Nicole ever was.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/StuOstro/status/1615155479985913858

[Landy]

[Sciencerocks]

https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/877402829797621770/1064724669774712862/goes16_ir_90L_202301162235.gif?width=951&height=669

I'd argue that it has strengthen to 70 and it is possibly as high as 75 knots. If you're in canada get ready for more then just light damage.There's now no question in my mind that it is now a hurricane.

[galaxy401]

Haven't been on for awhile and now I see this system. One of the best unnamed storms I've seen. You really have to wonder for those in the NHC whether to finally just floor it and upgrade it or keep it on stasis for the time being. Especially since it will make landfall (though much weaker by then).

[Category5Kaiju]

So has the NHC developed a new rule for naming storms? Especially off-season? I'm still kind of lost here as I was under the assumption that even if we're in off-season, if there's an Atlantic storm that meets all the criteria for a TS or SS that it would almost certainly be tracked and receive a name?

[cycloneye]

Moving thru 18C waters.

 https://twitter.com/VortixWx/status/1615167549355839488

[CrazyC83]

I'm curious what the NHC is thinking with this now.

One other thought: the 983 mb pressure seems quite low given the small size of the storm. Maybe that's because of being embedded in another cyclone's circulation.

[Landy]

I'm curious what the NHC is thinking with this now.

One other thought: the 983 mb pressure seems quite low given the small size of the storm. Maybe that's because of being embedded in another cyclone's circulation.

I am very curious as well. It undeniably looks better than ever, but it doesn't seem likely we get an advisory this cycle either... unless they rush one out? What a confusing case.

[Landy]

Considerable amount of convection in the -55C to -60C range with 13C waters looming close by.

[InfernoFlameCat]

I don’t get it. Why isn’t this named! I mean… this sets new precedent. Like how could this storm, which looks better than 90% of tropical storms, possibly be unnamed?

[Sciencerocks]

[Dean_175]

I don’t get it. Why isn’t this named! I mean… this sets new precedent. Like how could this storm, which looks better than 90% of tropical storms, possibly be unnamed?

Not within a tropical airmass. Idk if you are in SE US or Florida now to feel it, but the airmass this warm seclusion is embedded in is definitely a cold one. Even the "warm" air forming the seclusion is only around 60 degrees F. Forgetting for a second about the warm core/cold core details, it just goes against intuition and precedent to say there is a tropical cyclone off the New England coast when the cyclone is not even a warm weather system. It's similar to the reason medicanes and polar lows are not classified as tropical.

Why does it have to receive a name and be recognized as something that it isn't? it is an interesting system to follow regardless.

[InfernoFlameCat]

It looks better. Not more tropical. It does not have the outflow a true tropical system has. But it’s very well organized with tropical characteristics.

[Sciencerocks]

This is stronger then nicole and more deserving of the hurricane title.

I don't know how anyone could look at that satellite and say polar low? I mean why?

[Landy]

Looks like 90L is moving into the 13C isotherm now; cloudtops seem to be warming as well, at least presently. Should be downhill from here, luckily for NS.

[Jr0d]

Tough call. If this was early December it would be most certainly a sub tropical storm and I do believe it will be classified as one after the fact. At least we save a name...

[Jr0d]

So has the NHC developed a new rule for naming storms? Especially off-season? I'm still kind of lost here as I was under the assumption that even if we're in off-season, if there's an Atlantic storm that meets all the criteria for a TS or SS that it would almost certainly be tracked and receive a name?

My amateur opinion is the only reason why its not named is because its the middle of January. The NHC was a bit late classifying as an invest also, I was surprised this did not happen Saturday evening...

I do think post season analysis will upgrade this system to a sub tropical storm