SIO: FREDDY - Remnants

[aspen]

Looks like Freddy is recovering again. 12z BT is back up to a 120 kt Cat 4.

So far Freddy has had 9.5 hurricane days, 4.5 MH days, and 41.2 ACE, and it still has another 5 days to go before Madagascar. It could very well finish at nearly two weeks of hurricane days, 8-9 MH days, and an ACE of near/over 60. It’ll be very hard for any storm later this year to beat those numbers.

[wxman57]

Looks like Freddy is recovering again. 12z BT is back up to a 120 kt Cat 4.

So far Freddy has had 9.5 hurricane days, 4.5 MH days, and 41.2 ACE, and it still has another 5 days to go before Madagascar. It could very well finish at nearly two weeks of hurricane days, 8-9 MH days, and an ACE of near/over 60. It’ll be very hard for any storm later this year to beat those numbers.

It may stall on the Mozambique coast and be around into March. Record ACE for the basin is 53. Freddy will easily top that.

[al78]

What are the chances of Freddy surviving the passage over central Mozambique given it is a large and mountainous island and Freddy is a compact tropical cyclone?

[wxman57]

What are the chances of Freddy surviving the passage over central Mozambique given it is a large and mountainous island and Freddy is a compact tropical cyclone?

Chances are very good that it survives and intensifies back to a 65kt+ cyclone before reaching Mozambique. It may weaken to a 40 kt TC after passing Madagascar, but it will have time to reorganize over the Mozambique Channel.

[Hurricane2022]

 https://twitter.com/135knots/status/1626610700347998209



This is 130 kt at most.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/NOAASatellites/status/1626648021961216020

[cycloneye]

Impressive the long track and duration.

 https://twitter.com/FerragamoWx/status/1626654800656928775

[Hurricane2022]

 https://twitter.com/WxNB_/status/1626655882640560144

[cycloneye]

Freddy is going to surpass 50 ACE units very easy but will it reach the 60 mark?

[Yellow Evan]

I’d bank on Freddy reaching 70 ACE actually.

[cycloneye]

Freddy breaking records.

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1626727864757551104

[cycloneye]

TXXS26 KNES 180005
TCSSIO

A. 11S (FREDDY)

B. 17/2330Z

C. 16.0S

D. 71.7E

E. ONE/MET-9

F. T6.0/6.5

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...EYE PATTERN WITH A WMG EYE SURROUNDED BY B AND EMBEDDED IN
LG YIELDS A DT=6.0 INCLUDING +1.0 EYE ADJUSTMENT. MET AND PT AGREE. THE
FT IS BASED ON THE DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...LEE

[cycloneye]

Bulletin of February 18 at 04:12 local time in Reunion (03.12 local time in Mayotte):


The prefecture has placed the department in CYCLONIC YELLOW PRE-ALERT.

There is no current alert in Mayotte, and no cyclone threat is expected for the next 72 hours.

INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE number 7

(FREDDY)

Maximum winds (averaged over 10 minutes) estimated at sea: 195 km/h.

Estimated maximum gusts at sea: 280 km/h.

Estimated pressure at the center: 942 hPa.

Position on February 18 at 04 local time: 16.0 South / 71.4 East.

Distance from the Reunion coast: 1740 km to the sector: EAST-NORTH-EAST

Distance from Mayotte: 2850 km to sector: EAST

Movement: WEST, at 22 km/h.

System Information:

- Intense tropical cyclone FREDDY remains a particularly powerful and compact tropical system, generating extreme winds near its center. The zone of influence of the cyclone is reduced: few effects felt beyond 200 km from the center.

- On a trajectory oriented towards the west-south-west, FREDDY will approach the Mascarenes from the northeast with a passage north of Rodrigues on Sunday evening, Mauritius on Monday at the end of the day and Reunion between Monday evening and Tuesday Morning. The crossing distance to the sister islands remains uncertain but has a high probability of being between 50 and 350 km. It could thus be sufficient to lead to a significant and rapid deterioration of meteorological conditions on these islands.

- It is recommended that the inhabitants of the Mascarenes follow closely the evolution of the system.

- His race should then lead him in the night from Tuesday to Wednesday to a landing on the eastern coast of Madagascar at a mature stage. The location of the landing zone and its exact timing have yet to be determined.

[cycloneye]

Looks like is going thru a replacement cycle.

[Hurricane2022]

 https://twitter.com/135knots/status/1626831899397177344




With all due respect, but I think this meteorologist "Petersen" needs some long classes about TCs before before he can join into an official meteorological agency.

[cycloneye]

Bulletin of February 18 at 3:49 p.m. local time in Reunion (2.49 p.m. local time in Mayotte):


INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE number 7

(FREDDY)

Maximum winds (averaged over 10 minutes) estimated at sea: 185 km/h.

Estimated maximum gusts at sea: 260 km/h.

Estimated pressure at the center: 950 hPa.

Position on February 18 at 4 p.m. local time: 16.1 South / 69.4 East.

Distance from the coast of Reunion: 1530 km to the sector: EAST-NORTH-EAST

Distance from Mayotte: 2630 km to sector: EAST

Movement: WEST, at 19 km/h.

System Information:

- Freddy is an intense tropical cyclone presenting a potential danger. It is recommended that the inhabitants of the Mascarenes closely follow the evolution of the system.

- Intense tropical cyclone FREDDY is a particularly powerful and compact tropical system, generating extreme winds near its center. The zone of influence of the cyclone is reduced: few effects felt beyond 200 km from the center.

- On a trajectory oriented towards the west-south-west, FREDDY will approach the Mascarenes from the northeast with a passage north of Rodrigues on Sunday evening, Mauritius on Monday at the end of the day and Reunion between Monday evening and Tuesday Morning. The crossing distance to the sister islands remains uncertain. Given the uncertainties at these deadlines, a probability of being between a direct impact and a passage at a distance of 400 km is forecast for Mauritius and Reunion.

- His race should then lead him on Tuesday evening to a landing on the eastern coast of Madagascar at a mature stage. The location of the landing zone and its exact timing have yet to be determined.

[al78]

What are the chances of Freddy surviving the passage over central Mozambique given it is a large and mountainous island and Freddy is a compact tropical cyclone?

Chances are very good that it survives and intensifies back to a 65kt+ cyclone before reaching Mozambique. It may weaken to a 40 kt TC after passing Madagascar, but it will have time to reorganize over the Mozambique Channel.

I find that surprising. Looking at the Atlantic basin, storms have a hard time crossing from the Atlantic into the E Pacific because of the terrain, and storms hitting large islands with significant topography nearly always get badly disrupted to the point they don't recover properly. Even storms with a short passage over the Yucatan which is flat tend to get their core badly disrupted, e.g. hurricane Isidore in 2002. Why would a storm crossing Madagascar not get shredded by the mountains?

[Iceresistance]

What are the chances of Freddy surviving the passage over central Mozambique given it is a large and mountainous island and Freddy is a compact tropical cyclone?

Chances are very good that it survives and intensifies back to a 65kt+ cyclone before reaching Mozambique. It may weaken to a 40 kt TC after passing Madagascar, but it will have time to reorganize over the Mozambique Channel.

I find that surprising. Looking at the Atlantic basin, storms have a hard time crossing from the Atlantic into the E Pacific because of the terrain, and storms hitting large islands with significant topography nearly always get badly disrupted to the point they don't recover properly. Even storms with a short passage over the Yucatan which is flat tend to get their core badly disrupted, e.g. hurricane Isidore in 2002. Why would a storm crossing Madagascar not get shredded by the mountains?

Forward motion is expected to increase, and it could miss the highest mountains to the south.

[Meow]

Freddy’s ACE just reached 50. It will surpass Fantala’s very soon and continue raising the bar of the highest ACE for the Southern Hemisphere. It may reach 60 before its first landfall.

[cycloneye]

Bulletin of February 18 at 10:22 p.m. local time in Reunion (9.22 p.m. local time in Mayotte):


INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE number 7

(FREDDY)

Maximum winds (averaged over 10 minutes) estimated at sea: 185 km/h.

Estimated maximum gusts at sea: 260 km/h.

Estimated pressure at the center: 948 hPa.

Position on February 18 at 10 p.m. local time: 16.3 South / 68.1 East.

Distance from the coast of Reunion: 1400 km to the sector: EAST-NORTH-EAST

Distance from Mayotte: 2500 km to the sector: EAST-SOUTH-EAST

Movement: WEST, at 22 km/h.

System Information:

- Freddy is an intense tropical cyclone presenting a potential danger. It is recommended that the inhabitants of the Mascarenes and Madagascar follow closely the evolution of the system.

- Intense tropical cyclone FREDDY is a particularly powerful and compact tropical system, generating extreme winds near its center. The zone of influence of the cyclone is reduced: few effects felt beyond 200 km from the center.

- On a trajectory oriented towards the west-south-west, FREDDY will approach the Mascarenes from the northeast with a passage north of Rodrigues on Sunday evening, Mauritius on Monday at the end of the day and Reunion between Monday evening and Tuesday Morning. The crossing distance to the sister islands remains uncertain. Given the uncertainties at these deadlines, a probability of being between a quasi-direct impact and a passage at a distance of 350 km is forecast for Mauritius and Reunion.

- His race should then lead him on Tuesday evening to a landing on the eastern coast of Madagascar at a mature stage. The location of the landing zone and its exact timing have yet to be determined.