WPAC: MAWAR - Post-Tropical

[cycloneye]

[Sciencerocks]

 https://twitter.com/MatthewCuyugan/status/1660485843839242241

[Sciencerocks]

 https://twitter.com/VortixWx/status/1660479570322108419

[cycloneye]

Prognostic reasoning.

WDPN31 PGTW 220300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 9.1N 147.7E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 85 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 108 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF SATAWAL
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 37 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS WHAT APPEARS
TO BE THE BEGINNING OF AN EYE FEATURE. IT APPEARS TO BE TRYING TO
FORM JUST UNDER THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST ON THE LAST COUPLE OF
MSI LOOPS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE AS A
WELL-TIMED BULLSEYE OCCURRED FROM A 220007Z METOP-B ASCAT IMAGE.
THE TILT FROM THE UPPER AND LOWER-LEVEL CIRCULATION ARE BECOMING
MORE BAROTROPIC, AS EVIDENCED IN THE MOST RECENT 212100Z F-17 SSMIS
91GHZ AND 37GHZ CHANNELS. THIS LINKAGE HAS SHOWN A SIGNIFICANT
INCREASE IN INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS, WHICH IS WHY THE
PERCEIVED EYE FEATURE MAY BE FORMING AS WELL. THE LATEST RADAR
IMAGES COMING FROM GUAM INDICATE RAINBANDS ARE REMAINING OFFSHORE
AT THE CURRENT TIME. THERE APPEARS TO BE MINIMAL DRY-AIR ENTRAINING
INTO THE SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTH. HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM HAS COCOONED
ITSELF IN A WELL-PROTECTED MARSUPIAL POUCH OF WARM, MOIST AIR WITH
WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BELOW AND LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE USING
THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED ASCAT, ALONG WITH MULTIPLE DVORAK FIX
AGENCIES AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA FROM A 220007Z METOP-B
ASCAT.

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE EAST
AND SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHWEST.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
PGTW: T5.0 - 90 KTS
RJTD: T4.5 - 77 KTS
KNES: T5.0 - 90 KTS
CIMSS ADT: 84 KTS AT 212330Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
VWS: 15-20 KTS
SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD
OTHER FACTORS: STRONG POLEWARD AND MODERATE WESTWARD OUTFLOW.

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TY 02W (MAWAR) WILL CONTINUE ON THE SAME
NORTH-NORTHWEST TRACK AND INTENSIFY ALONG THE ROUTE TOWARD THE
MARIANA ISLANDS. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY INTENSITY AS
IT TRACKS TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE NER.
THE ENVIRONMENT SURROUNDING TY 02W WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR THE
FORECAST DURATION, CHARACTERIZED BY WARM SSTS, ROBUST OUTFLOW
ALOFT, AND NEGATE ANY OF THE NEGATIVE EFFECTS OF LIMITED DRY-AIR
ENTRAINMENT. DUE TO THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, TY MAWAR WILL
CONTINUE DEVELOPING INTO A MORE INTENSE SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS, FUELED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED ROBUST OUTFLOW ALOFT AND
WARM SSTS, AND REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 100KTS JUST BEFORE
REACHING THE ISLANDS OF GUAM AND ROTA. AFTER IT MOVES THROUGH THE
ROTA CHANNEL, THE NER TO THE EAST WILL REORIENT AND BUILD FURTHER
NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM, FORCING MAWAR TO MOVE ON A MORE FLATTENED
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD COURSE. BY TAU 120, TY 02W WILL HAVE AMPLE
RUNNING SPACE AND PLENTY OF DEEP OCEAN HEAT CONTENT (OHC) IN THE
PHILIPPINE SEA TO CONTINUE GAINING INTENSITY AND REACH A PEAK OF
125KTS, JUST SHY OF SUPER-TYPHOON STRENGTH.

MODEL DISCUSSION: OUR FAITHFUL AFUM AND NAVGEM ARE AT IT ONCE
AGAIN, WITH THE LEFT BIAS TENDENCY FROM THE MAIN BODY OF MODEL
CONSENSUS. BARRING THOSE TWO MODELS, THE BULK OF THE NUMERICAL
MODELS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH A MAXIMUM CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF
A MODEST 34NM BY TAU 48. BY TAU 72, THE SPREAD ONLY INCREASES
SLIGHTLY TO 57NM. THE BULK OF THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO CARRY THE
SYSTEM NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH 48, AFTER WHICH EVERY MEMBER
ALTERS COURSE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AFTER TAU 72 AND BEYOND TO TAU 120, THE ALONG-TRACK SPREADING
CONTINUES TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE REMAINING FORECAST
PERIOD. FOR THIS REASON, THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED
INITIALLY WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE AND EVENTUALLY WITH MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE IN THE LATTER PORTION. AS STATED IN THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING, RELIABLE MODEL INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR
AGREEMENT WITH SEVERAL MEMBERS AS WELL AS RAPID INTENSIFICATION
(RI) AIDS INDICATING ROBUST AND PERSISTENT INTENSIFICATION THROUGH
TAU 60 WITH COAMPS-TC LEADING THE CHARGE. THE RI FACTOR ALSO SHOWS
IN THE GEFS, BUT IT IS IN THE LATER 72-96 TAUS AND IS A MUCH LOWER
PROBABILITY. ONCE 02W MOVES INTO THE PHILIPPINE SEA, THE RI WILL
MOST LIKELY OCCUR, BUT AS TO THE EXACT TIMING, IT IS LESS CERTAIN
AT THIS TIME AND FOR THESE REASONS; THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS
PLACED INITIALLY WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE NEAR TAU AND MEDIUM
THEREAFTER.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
TRACK 72-120 HR: HIGH
INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
NNNN

[doomhaMwx]

18z eps
https://i.imgur.com/EmWM0zY.png

Odd no sub 900's there.

The new version of ECMWF has some sub-900mb members (graphic by @zeb199818 on Twitter). Interesting to see that the new version is more aggressive due to its higher resolution.

[Guamphoon]

Latest JTWC track shows it now passing over southern Guam, a large shift south in the last 6 hours.

This puts Guam in the NE quadrant, which might mean stronger winds for most the island vs the more northerly track.

[Yellow Evan]

This is going to suffer from shear as flow is monsoonal at low levels and easterly aloft due to the ULAC until this lifts northward.

[cycloneye]

WDPN31 PGTW 220900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 9.5N 147.0E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 90 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 270 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 30 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A 92NM
CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) WITH TIGHTLY WRAPPING LOW LEVEL CLOUD
LINES VISIBLE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE CDO. PERSISTENT CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING ACTIVITY AND VIGOROUS OVERSHOOTING CONVECTION
COUPLED WITH A FAINT REGION OF WARMING CLOUD TOPS IS FORESHADOWING
A POSSIBLE EYE DEVELOPMENT. A SUITE OF 220531Z SSMIS AND 220606Z
GMI MICROWAVE IMAGERY BOTH INDICATE A SMALL MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE
WITH IMPROVING BANDING FEATURES IN A CLAW LIKE SHAPE. COMPARING THE
37GHZ AND 89-91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY REVEALS A PERSISTENT TILT TO
THE CIRCULATION AS THE CORE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP. FURTHERMORE, THE
TWO SUITES OF MICROWAVE IMAGERY AS WELL AS MSI IMAGERY REVEAL A
FAIR AMOUNT OF TROCHOIDAL MOTION AS 02W STEAMS TOWARDS GUAM. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON MSI, SSMIS
AND GMI IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 90KTS IS ASSESSED WITH
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON A GENERAL CONSENSUS AMONGST DVORAK AND
CIMSS ADT INTENSITY ESTIMATES WHICH INDICATE T4.5-T5.0 WITH A BULK
OF THE ESTIMATES CLOSER TO THE JTWC INITIAL INTENSITY OF 90KTS.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: 220007Z ASCAT-B

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE EAST
AND SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHWEST.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
PGTW: T5.0 - 90 KTS
RJTD: T4.5 - 77 KTS
KNES: T5.0 - 90 KTS
CIMSS ADT: 85 KTS AT 220600Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
VWS: 15-20 KTS
SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD
OTHER FACTORS: STRONG POLEWARD AND MODERATE WESTWARD OUTFLOW.

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS BOTH
SCATTEROMETRY AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY HAVE DEFINITIVELY RESOLVED THE
LLCC'S POSITION SLIGHTLY WESTWARD OF PREVIOUS FORECASTS. THIS SHIFT
WHEN INTERPOLATED DOWNSTREAM, BRINGS THE BULK OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE
GENERALLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AS WELL AND THEREFORE LENDS A HIGHER
CONFIDENCE THAT 02W WILL PASS SOUTHWEST OF GUAM VIS NORTHEAST. THIS
CHANGE COUPLED WITH A PERSISTENT INDICATION THAT THE NER TO THE
EAST WILL PROVIDE GREATER WESTWARD FORCING ON 02W, HAS RESULTED IN
THE SLIGHT FORECAST TRACK MIGRATION. HAVING SAID THAT, THE
MAGNITUDE OF TRACK SHIFT BY TAU 48 IS 20 MILES.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TY 02W (MAWAR) IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
TRACKING GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE
OF THE NER RIDGE TO THE EAST. 02W IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW
AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OFFSET SLIGHTLY BY MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). AS 02W CONTINUES TO DEVELOP AND
INTENSIFY, THE SYSTEM WILL COCOON ITSELF IN A MOISTURE BUBBLE AND
GENERALLY SHRUG OFF THE DRY AIR BEING FUNNELED EQUATORWARD BY THE
STR. THESE ELEMENTS WILL STRENGTHEN THE SYSTEM TO AROUND 105KTS BY
TAU 36. AFTER THIS TIME, THE NER TO THE EAST WILL REORIENT AND
SHIFT POLEWARD, FORCING 02W TO ALTER COURSE AND STEADY UP ON A
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY HEADING. AFTER PASSING POLEWARD OF GUAM, 02W
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE PHILIPPINE SEA WITH PLENTY OF DEEP OCEAN
HEAT CONTENT (OHC) TO CONTINUE GAINING INTENSITY AND REACH A PEAK
INTENSITY OF 130KTS BU TAU 120, WHICH IS SUPER-TYPHOON STRENGTH.


MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A
70NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS THROUGH TAU 48 AFTER WHICH A MODERATE
AMOUNT OF CROSS TRACK SPREADING TAKES PLACE. FOR THIS REASON, THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED INITIALLY WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE AND
EVENTUALLY WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. RELIABLE MODEL INTENSITY
GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH SEVERAL MEMBERS AS WELL AS RAPID
INTENSIFICATION (RI) AIDS INDICATING ROBUST AND PERSISTENT
INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 72 AND ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION AS
THE SYSTEM TRACKS THROUGH THE PHILIPPINE SEA. THE JTWC INTENSITY
FORECAST IS THEREFORE PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE NEAR TAU
AND MEDIUM THEREAFTER.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
NNNN

[cycloneye]

TXPQ22 KNES 221237
TCSWNP

A. 02W (MAWAR)

B. 22/1130Z

C. 10.0N

D. 146.8E

E. THREE/HIMAWARI-9

F. T5.0/5.0

G. IR/EIR/SWIR/SSMIS

H. REMARKS...EYE FEATURE SEEN IN 22/0808Z SSMIS MICROWOAVE PASS. CENTER
IS EMBEDDED IN W WITH 0.5 ADDED FOR BANDING FEATURE RESULTING IN A DT
OF 5.5. MET AND PT = 5.0. THE FT IS BASED ON THE MET AS SOME UNCERTAINTY
IN CENTER LOCATION.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

22/0808Z 9.7N 147.0E SSMIS


...KIBLER

[Hayabusa]

06Z

[cycloneye]

WDPN31 PGTW 221500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 10.0N 146.9E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 90 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 240 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 39 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN
INCREASINGLY SYMMETRIC CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) WITH DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDS IN THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN QUADRANTS. OVER THE
PAST SEVERAL HOURS, WE HAVE HIT A LUCKY STREAK OF SATELLITE DATA,
WITH BULLSEYE PASSES OF MICROWAVE IMAGERY, SCATTEROMETER DATA AND
SYNTHETIC APERTURE RADAR (SAR) ALL IMPROVING THE JTWC FORECAST.
STARTING OFF WITH 220808Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY WHICH SHOWS
IMPROVING CORE CONVECTIVE CONSOLIDATION AROUND A MICROWAVE EYE AND
ROBUST BANDING FEATURES EVIDENT IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. A
220821Z RCM-2 SAR PASS FURTHER REINFORCED BY A LATER 221112Z
ASCAT-B SCATTEROMETERY PASS SHOWS AN IMPROVED SYMMETRIC WIND FIELD
WITH 60-70KT WINDS FULLY ENCIRCLING THE CORE OF THE SYSTEM AND MAX
WINDS TO THE SOUTH OF THE LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE PLETHORA OF SATELLITE DATA INCLUDING
SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGERY AS WELL AS SAR AND ASCAT-B PASSES. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 90KTS IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED
ON PGTW, RJTD AND KNES DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES REFLECTING 90KTS.
FURTHERMORE, CIMSS D-MINT AS WELL AS THE RECENT SAR DATA ALSO
SUPPORT THE JTWC INITIAL INTENSITY OF 90KTS.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SAR DATA

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE EAST
AND SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHWEST.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
PGTW: T5.0 - 90 KTS
RJTD: T5.0 - 90 KTS
KNES: T5.0 - 90 KTS
CIMSS ADT: 84 KTS AT 221130Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
VWS: 10-15 KTS
SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD
OTHER FACTORS: STRONG POLEWARD AND MODERATE WESTWARD OUTFLOW.

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TY 02W (MAWAR) IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
TRACKING GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE
OF THE NER RIDGE TO THE EAST. 02W IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW
AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OFFSET SLIGHTLY BY LOW-MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). AS 02W CONTINUES TO DEVELOP AND
INTENSIFY, THE SYSTEM WILL COCOON ITSELF IN A MOISTURE POCKET AND
GENERALLY SHRUG OFF THE DRY AIR BEING FUNNELED EQUATORWARD BY THE
STR TO THE WEST. THESE ELEMENTS WILL STRENGTHEN THE SYSTEM TO
AROUND 105KTS BY TAU 36. AROUND THE SAME TIME, THE NER TO THE EAST
WILL REORIENT AND SHIFT POLEWARD, FORCING 02W TO ALTER COURSE AND
STEADY UP ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING. AFTER PASSING
EQUATORWARD OF GUAM, 02W WILL CONTINUE INTO THE PHILIPPINE SEA WITH
PLENTY OF DEEP OCEAN HEAT CONTENT (OHC) TO CONTINUE GAINING
STRENGTH AND EVENTUALLY REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 125KTS BY TAU
120, WHICH IS JUST SHORT OF SUPER-TYPHOON STRENGTH.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A
65NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS THROUGH TAU 48 AFTER WHICH A SLIGHT AMOUNT
OF CROSS TRACK SPREADING TAKES PLACE. FOR THIS REASON, THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED INITIALLY WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE AND
EVENTUALLY WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. RELIABLE MODEL INTENSITY
GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH SEVERAL MEMBERS AS WELL AS RAPID
INTENSIFICATION (RI) AIDS INDICATING PERSISTENT INTENSIFICATION
THROUGH TAU 48 AND ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS
INTO THE PHILIPPINE SEA. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS THEREFORE
PLACED WITH OVERALL MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
NNNN

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1660665342979342336

[Sciencerocks]

 https://twitter.com/SouthFLwx04/status/1660681844654854145

[Sciencerocks]

[cycloneye]

My take on how much ACE units Mawar will get is 25.0 but if it takes a more west track, it will get more. As of 15:00z,it has 5.5 per CSU.

[Hurricane2022]

Intensifying.

[cycloneye]

Dr Jeff Masters analysis. Chasers Jim Edds and James Reynolds are in Guam.

https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2023 ... oon-mawar/

[xtyphooncyclonex]

I think 30 ACE units is the floor. It has potential to reach 40+

[Yellow Evan]

My take on how much ACE units Mawar will get is 25.0 but if it takes a more west track, it will get more. As of 15:00z,it has 5.5 per CSU.

This will sustain major hurricane strength for 6-7 days and probably spend a day or two at Category 5. I’d be surprised if this didn’t wrack up at least 40 ACE

[cycloneye]

From now, every little jog will be important for Guam having the eye passing over the island, or moving close to the south or north.