EPAC: HILARY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[aspen]

How much rain will Tucson get, And will we see any TS force winds from Hillary?

Possibly up to an inch of rain according to the 06z GFS. However, I remember someone (I think Yellow Evan) saying something about the GFS over-estimating rainfall totals from storms with tracks like this.

[cycloneye]

EP, 09, 2023081712, , BEST, 0, 152N, 1072W, 75, 980, HU

[Sciencerocks]

[ScottNAtlanta]

How much rain will Tucson get, And will we see any TS force winds from Hillary?

Possibly up to an inch of rain according to the 06z GFS. However, I remember someone (I think Yellow Evan) saying something about the GFS over-estimating rainfall totals from storms with tracks like this.

A lot will depend on how fast Hilary is moving when it gets to the SW US. The faster it is moving the less time to weaken. There will be a ton of rain with this for the Desert SW regardless and there will be flash flooding. An inch of rain in this region is a whole lot of rain and can cause severe flooding.

[cycloneye]

* GFS version *
* EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* HILARY EP092023 08/17/23 12 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 75 88 101 113 123 137 141 130 109 84 58 40 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A
V (KT) LAND 75 88 101 113 123 137 141 130 109 84 50 34 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A
V (KT) LGEM 75 90 105 119 131 149 144 116 84 52 35 29 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A

SHEAR (KT) 5 1 3 3 7 4 0 7 8 15 22 29 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -3 -4 -3 -5 -2 2 11 4 1 5 5 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR DIR 308 29 347 20 28 40 325 167 148 170 167 170 192 N/A N/A N/A N/A
SST (C) 30.0 29.9 29.9 29.8 30.1 30.2 28.7 26.3 24.0 21.8 19.4 14.2 12.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A
POT. INT. (KT) 166 165 165 163 166 168 152 128 105 83 64 64 64 N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB T (C) -51.3 -50.8 -50.2 -50.5 -50.5 -49.5 -49.5 -48.6 -49.0 -48.6 -48.4 -48.3 -48.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.9 0.9 1.1 1.0 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.2 1.2 0.7 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A
TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 7 6 5 4 3 2 3 1 4 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-500 MB RH 83 82 79 80 81 77 74 65 60 56 54 54 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A
MODEL VTX (KT) 31 34 38 39 42 47 51 49 42 33 22 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 57 67 75 89 105 105 97 115 105 119 53 89 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB DIV 121 148 195 158 152 160 84 91 6 32 59 93 55 N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-850 TADV -10 -8 -7 -10 -6 4 7 5 1 4 -17 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAND (KM) 517 534 582 618 596 494 431 272 94 10 -80 -318 -365 N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAT (DEG N) 15.2 15.8 16.4 17.1 17.7 19.3 21.2 23.5 26.5 30.0 33.9 37.6 41.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A
LONG(DEG W) 107.2 108.4 109.5 110.4 111.3 112.8 113.9 114.4 115.0 115.9 117.0 118.3 119.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A
STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 12 11 11 11 11 13 17 19 20 19 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A
HEAT CONTENT 30 25 29 28 26 27 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A

FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 13 CX,CY: -10/ 7
T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 597 (MEAN=588)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.5 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 82.3

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 6. 5. 3. -1. -6. -13. -20. -19. -9. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 7. 9. 12. 13. 15. 18. 19. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
PERSISTENCE 7. 10. 11. 10. 8. 5. 3. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 0. 0. 0. 0.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 3. 6. 8. 12. 19. 22. 15. 2. -13. -30. -34. 0. 0. 0. 0.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
RI POTENTIAL 2. 6. 11. 16. 26. 23. 13. 3. -3. -9. -14. -16. 0. 0. 0. 0.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 13. 26. 38. 48. 62. 66. 55. 34. 9. -17. -35. -32. 0. 0. 0. 0.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 15.2 107.2

** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP092023 HILARY 08/17/23 12 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 90.2 36.9 to 148.5 0.48 17.1
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 30.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.79 24.4
MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 10.6 30.9 to 7.7 0.88 21.3
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 66.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.84 -23.1
D200 (10**7s-1) : 154.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.98 20.9
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.76 15.9
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.74 12.7
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 27.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.25 2.6
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 6.6
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.35 0.1

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 98% is 15.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 100% is 7.9 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 99% is 11.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 98% is 16.1 times climatological mean ( 6.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 89% is 21.2 times climatological mean ( 4.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 100% is 14.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 68% is 11.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 98.3% 100.0% 98.5% 97.6% 88.9% 100.0% 68.2% 15.8%
Logistic: 63.5% 74.7% 64.0% 59.1% 39.6% 56.3% 36.8% 0.2%
Bayesian: 65.6% 51.2% 57.2% 47.1% 24.9% 4.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 75.8% 75.3% 73.3% 67.9% 51.2% 53.5% 35.0% 5.3%
DTOPS: 92.0% 95.0% 98.0% 96.0% 92.0% 90.0% 17.0% 0.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092023 HILARY 08/17/23 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

[aspen]

* GFS version *
* EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* HILARY EP092023 08/17/23 12 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 75 88 101 113 123 137 141 130 109 84 58 40 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A
V (KT) LAND 75 88 101 113 123 137 141 130 109 84 50 34 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A
V (KT) LGEM 75 90 105 119 131 149 144 116 84 52 35 29 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A

SHEAR (KT) 5 1 3 3 7 4 0 7 8 15 22 29 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -3 -4 -3 -5 -2 2 11 4 1 5 5 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR DIR 308 29 347 20 28 40 325 167 148 170 167 170 192 N/A N/A N/A N/A
SST (C) 30.0 29.9 29.9 29.8 30.1 30.2 28.7 26.3 24.0 21.8 19.4 14.2 12.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A
POT. INT. (KT) 166 165 165 163 166 168 152 128 105 83 64 64 64 N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB T (C) -51.3 -50.8 -50.2 -50.5 -50.5 -49.5 -49.5 -48.6 -49.0 -48.6 -48.4 -48.3 -48.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.9 0.9 1.1 1.0 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.2 1.2 0.7 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A
TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 7 6 5 4 3 2 3 1 4 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-500 MB RH 83 82 79 80 81 77 74 65 60 56 54 54 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A
MODEL VTX (KT) 31 34 38 39 42 47 51 49 42 33 22 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 57 67 75 89 105 105 97 115 105 119 53 89 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB DIV 121 148 195 158 152 160 84 91 6 32 59 93 55 N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-850 TADV -10 -8 -7 -10 -6 4 7 5 1 4 -17 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAND (KM) 517 534 582 618 596 494 431 272 94 10 -80 -318 -365 N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAT (DEG N) 15.2 15.8 16.4 17.1 17.7 19.3 21.2 23.5 26.5 30.0 33.9 37.6 41.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A
LONG(DEG W) 107.2 108.4 109.5 110.4 111.3 112.8 113.9 114.4 115.0 115.9 117.0 118.3 119.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A
STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 12 11 11 11 11 13 17 19 20 19 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A
HEAT CONTENT 30 25 29 28 26 27 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A

FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 13 CX,CY: -10/ 7
T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 597 (MEAN=588)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.5 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 82.3

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 6. 5. 3. -1. -6. -13. -20. -19. -9. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 7. 9. 12. 13. 15. 18. 19. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
PERSISTENCE 7. 10. 11. 10. 8. 5. 3. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 0. 0. 0. 0.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 3. 6. 8. 12. 19. 22. 15. 2. -13. -30. -34. 0. 0. 0. 0.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
RI POTENTIAL 2. 6. 11. 16. 26. 23. 13. 3. -3. -9. -14. -16. 0. 0. 0. 0.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 13. 26. 38. 48. 62. 66. 55. 34. 9. -17. -35. -32. 0. 0. 0. 0.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 15.2 107.2

** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP092023 HILARY 08/17/23 12 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 90.2 36.9 to 148.5 0.48 17.1
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 30.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.79 24.4
MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 10.6 30.9 to 7.7 0.88 21.3
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 66.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.84 -23.1
D200 (10**7s-1) : 154.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.98 20.9
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.76 15.9
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.74 12.7
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 27.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.25 2.6
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 6.6
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.35 0.1

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 98% is 15.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 100% is 7.9 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 99% is 11.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 98% is 16.1 times climatological mean ( 6.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 89% is 21.2 times climatological mean ( 4.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 100% is 14.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 68% is 11.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 98.3% 100.0% 98.5% 97.6% 88.9% 100.0% 68.2% 15.8%
Logistic: 63.5% 74.7% 64.0% 59.1% 39.6% 56.3% 36.8% 0.2%
Bayesian: 65.6% 51.2% 57.2% 47.1% 24.9% 4.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 75.8% 75.3% 73.3% 67.9% 51.2% 53.5% 35.0% 5.3%
DTOPS: 92.0% 95.0% 98.0% 96.0% 92.0% 90.0% 17.0% 0.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092023 HILARY 08/17/23 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

141 kt at 48 hrs

I’ve never seen SHIPS yield Cat 5 winds before. At least, none that I can recall.

[wxman57]

Deep trof just offshore southern CA will initially result in good ventilation, allowing Hilary to strengthen quickly. North of 25N, SSTs drop to about 72 and that ventilation turns to shear. This would result in rapid weakening. Though Hilary will be mostly a rain threat for CA (east of track), mountain areas and passes could experience 50-60 mph winds.

[Yellow Evan]

EP, 09, 202308171200, 10, DVTS, CI, , 1520N, 10720W, , 1, 65, 2, 987, 2, DVRK, , , , , , , , , , , , , , E, TAFB, AH, I, 1, 4040 /////, , , GOES18, CSC, T, Not allowed to use eye pattern yet since the 24 hr o

[Cyclenall]

141 kt at 48 hrs

I’ve never seen SHIPS yield Cat 5 winds before. At least, none that I can recall.

A 65 knot increase in 48 hours, incredible. Not sure I've ever seen this from SHIPS either. I'm mostly interested in the actual rate of RI Hilary undergoes comparatively. 21 times climo for 40 knots in 24 hours .

Separate thought that I keep having: how many epac >100 knot hurricanes have not RI'd?

[cycloneye]

The recon mission of Friday will be followed bigtime and it may rival the famous Patricia one.

NOAA3 0420E PATRICIA HDOB 35 20151023
203030 1836N 10502W 6964 02794 9531 +208 +065 217112 116 103 006 00
203100 1838N 10504W 6951 02736 9445 +220 +060 215130 133 109 013 00
203130 1839N 10505W 6972 02605 9279 +284 +026 210142 144 116 028 00
203200 1840N 10507W 7003 02434 9223 +198 +097 220117 133 117 031 00
203230 1841N 10509W 6945 02405 9101 +206 +185 235074 090 101 013 03
203300 1842N 10510W 6897 02435 9026 +262 +118 263031 043 083 006 03
203330 1844N 10510W 6969 02328 9029 +241 +125 046015 029 080 000 03
203400 1846N 10509W 6935 02408 9095 +200 +148 110053 071 094 004 00
203430 1848N 10508W 6944 02514 9213 +195 +145 123097 105 131 002 00
203500 1849N 10507W 6793 02824 9366 +153 //// 121108 114 127 004 01
203530 1851N 10506W 6693 03049 9446 +177 +073 114123 127 114 001 00
203600 1853N 10505W 6743 03068 9563 +146 +095 113110 112 098 000 00
203630 1855N 10504W 6789 03071 9636 +146 +085 114101 104 094 000 03
203700 1857N 10505W 6902 02966 9683 +146 +093 107091 095 086 001 03
203730 1859N 10507W 6922 02961 9712 +141 +103 100084 086 071 001 00
203800 1901N 10509W 6938 02963 9737 +136 +114 095081 084 067 001 00
203830 1903N 10511W 6937 02981 9761 +132 +116 091075 076 067 001 00
203900 1905N 10513W 6934 03004 9786 +126 +119 085071 073 069 004 00
203930 1906N 10515W 6934 03011 9803 +119 //// 082079 083 070 000 05
204000 1908N 10517W 6923 03020 9804 +117 //// 085090 096 066 021 01

[Gatos del Sol]

Whatever happens, im sure as hell not gonna complain. This winter was a godsend and actually getting rain like this at a time thats historically hot and excessively dry is a miracle. Im enjoying these odd years of getting tropical impacts. Its quite a fun treat

The healthier vegetation because of a wet winter could also help stabilize hillsides and reduce the risk of mudslide/landslide from excessive rain.

[aspen]

It kind of looks like Hilary has ingested some dry air on its west side, but some new hot towers are firing around what I think is the eyewall, so it should mix out soon.

When is tomorrow’s recon scheduled to arrive at Hilary?

[kevin]

I'm getting Patricia flashbacks... Of course Patricia was a unique one-of-a-kind storm so I don't want to prematurely compare Hilary to it, but the similarity in their ERI potential is striking.

[Ntxw]

I'm getting Patricia flashbacks... Of course Patricia was a unique one-of-a-kind storm so I don't want to prematurely compare Hilary to it, but the similarity in their ERI potential is striking.

It might actually compare better to Hurricane Marie 14 given RI location and intensity.

[Evil Jeremy]

Hot diggity, might see some action here in LA! That’d be funny to add to my sig…

[cycloneye]

Hurricane Hilary Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092023
900 AM MDT Thu Aug 17 2023

Hilary has continued to intensify rapidly. The cloud pattern of
this large hurricane is very impressive, with extremely intense
deep convection and cloud tops to -80 deg C or colder.
Well-defined banding features are evident over all quadrants of the
circulation. The upper-level outflow pattern is quite symmetric and
expanding. Satellite intensity estimates are wide-ranging and
the Dvorak technique rules do not allow subjective current
intensity estimates much above 65-70 kt. However based on data
T-numbers the advisory intensity is set, perhaps conservatively, to
75 kt.

The hurricane is moving west-northwestward, or about 300/12 kt.
Over the next few days, a mid-level ridge to the north of Hilary
is forecast to shift eastward while a mid-level low remains near
the California coast. This evolution of the steering currents
should result in a gradual turn toward the north in a couple of
days, which would bring Hilary near the Baja California peninsula
in 72 hours or so and near the U.S./California border in 3-4 days.
The official forecast track is very similar to the previous one,
and follows the HFIP corrected consensus, HCCA, guidance. Although
there is fairly high confidence in the track prediction, Hilary's
oblique angle of approach to the west coast of the Baja California
peninsula makes it nearly impossible to know at this point if the
center will remain just offshore or move over the peninsula before
reaching the southwestern United States.

Hilary is in an environment of low shear and high mid- to low-level
humidity, and over very warm waters. The SHIPS rapid
intensification (RI) indices show extremely high probabilities of
rapid intensification during the next day or so. Therefore the
official intensity forecast shows a 40-kt increase over the next 24
hours. Later in the forecast period, cooler waters and land
interaction should result in some weakening. The official wind
speed forecast is near or a little above the latest HCCA guidance.
The surface circulation is likely to be dissipated by day 5, but a
day 5 forecast point (as a remnant low) is still provided to
maintain a forecast track over southern California.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Heavy rainfall associated with Hilary may produce areas of flash
flooding and result in landslides over portions of Baja California
Peninsula from late Friday into late Sunday. Rainfall impacts from
Hilary within the Southwestern United States are expected to peak
this weekend into Monday. Flash, urban, and arroyo flooding, is
possible with the potential for significant impacts.

2. Hilary has the potential to bring significant impacts to the
Baja California Peninsula and portions of the southwestern United
States this weekend and early next week, including after it becomes
post-tropical. Although it is too soon to determine the location
and magnitude of wind impacts, interests in these areas should
monitor the progress of Hilary and updates to the forecast.
Tropical Storm Warnings and Watches are now in effect for
southern portions of Baja California Sur, and additional watches or
warnings will likely be required later today.

3. Large swells from Hilary will spread northward along the coast
of southwestern Mexico and the Baja California Peninsula during the
next several days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/1500Z 15.5N 107.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 18/0000Z 16.4N 109.4W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 18/1200Z 17.6N 111.2W 115 KT 130 MPH
36H 19/0000Z 19.3N 112.7W 120 KT 140 MPH
48H 19/1200Z 21.2N 113.7W 115 KT 130 MPH
60H 20/0000Z 23.6N 114.4W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 20/1200Z 26.6N 115.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 21/1200Z 33.4N 116.8W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
120H 22/1200Z 41.0N 119.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[ScottNAtlanta]

Hot diggity, might see some action here in LA! That’d be funny to add to my sig…

...or a TS warning for San Diego would be wild

[Cyclenall]

The recon mission of Friday will be followed bigtime and it may rival the famous Patricia one.

NOAA3 0420E PATRICIA HDOB 35 20151023
203030 1836N 10502W 6964 02794 9531 +208 +065 217112 116 103 006 00
203100 1838N 10504W 6951 02736 9445 +220 +060 215130 133 109 013 00
203130 1839N 10505W 6972 02605 9279 +284 +026 210142 144 116 028 00
203200 1840N 10507W 7003 02434 9223 +198 +097 220117 133 117 031 00
203230 1841N 10509W 6945 02405 9101 +206 +185 235074 090 101 013 03
203300 1842N 10510W 6897 02435 9026 +262 +118 263031 043 083 006 03
203330 1844N 10510W 6969 02328 9029 +241 +125 046015 029 080 000 03
203400 1846N 10509W 6935 02408 9095 +200 +148 110053 071 094 004 00
203430 1848N 10508W 6944 02514 9213 +195 +145 123097 105 131 002 00
203500 1849N 10507W 6793 02824 9366 +153 //// 121108 114 127 004 01
203530 1851N 10506W 6693 03049 9446 +177 +073 114123 127 114 001 00
203600 1853N 10505W 6743 03068 9563 +146 +095 113110 112 098 000 00
203630 1855N 10504W 6789 03071 9636 +146 +085 114101 104 094 000 03
203700 1857N 10505W 6902 02966 9683 +146 +093 107091 095 086 001 03
203730 1859N 10507W 6922 02961 9712 +141 +103 100084 086 071 001 00
203800 1901N 10509W 6938 02963 9737 +136 +114 095081 084 067 001 00
203830 1903N 10511W 6937 02981 9761 +132 +116 091075 076 067 001 00
203900 1905N 10513W 6934 03004 9786 +126 +119 085071 073 069 004 00
203930 1906N 10515W 6934 03011 9803 +119 //// 082079 083 070 000 05
204000 1908N 10517W 6923 03020 9804 +117 //// 085090 096 066 021 01

Just curious, why did you pick HDOB 35 for Patty? Not peak

[aspen]

Who had “Oregon in the cone” on their 2023 Bingo card? Because I sure didn’t.

It may be post-tropical by then but that’s still a wild forecast map.

[kevin]

If Hilary reaches California as a tropical storm it would only be the third TS to impact California since 1900. The two other ones are the 1939 Long Beach tropical storm and hurricane Nora in 1997. While not expected and extremely unlikely due to the terrain and atmospheric conditions up north, a hurricane landfall in California or a tropical depression/storm in Nevada or Oregon would of course be unprecedented.