ATL: FRANKLIN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[ConvergenceZone]

It should survive the crossing. Maybe hurricane threat to Bermuda in 7-8 days. Going right up the Haiti/DR border. Lots of rain for them. Not so much for Luis in PR or the U.S./BVI

Time for a break, been issuing advisories since 4:30am. Was thinking NHC would start advisories on Gulf system.

If mid August is already this busy, I can't even imagine what September is going to be like..... Sooner or later one of these storms won't recurve.

[cheezyWXguy]

It should survive the crossing. Maybe hurricane threat to Bermuda in 7-8 days. Going right up the Haiti/DR border. Lots of rain for them. Not so much for Luis in PR or the U.S./BVI

Time for a break, been issuing advisories since 4:30am. Was thinking NHC would start advisories on Gulf system.

If mid August is already this busy, I can't even imagine what September is going to be like..... Sooner or later one of these storms won't recurve.

Pretty crazy given the downcasting posts even just a couple days ago, eh? Happens every year lol

[Landy]

Impressive burst ongoing.

[Blown Away]

Franklin has 2 blobs of convection, I think these areas will be competing.

[pgoss11]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/MZNt8qDX/goes16-ir-08-L-202308202325.gif [/url]

Franklin has 2 blobs of convection, I think these areas will be competing.

My least favorite thing in tracking storms are the competing blobs of convection

[AutoPenalti]

Is this a Eastern Caribbean thing because I see this happen just in this region.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1693448397817053524

[Hurricane2022]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/MZNt8qDX/goes16-ir-08-L-202308202325.gif [/url]

Franklin has 2 blobs of convection, I think these areas will be competing.

This big blob reminds me of Noru and Fiona in 2022
And of course, the hunga-tonga volcanic explosion

[cheezyWXguy]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/MZNt8qDX/goes16-ir-08-L-202308202325.gif [/url]

Franklin has 2 blobs of convection, I think these areas will be competing.

Probably, but it shouldn’t hamper the modest strengthening that’s expected before landfall on Hispaniola. The competing blobs are more of a detriment to rapid intensification, which isn’t expected to begin with

[USTropics]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/MZNt8qDX/goes16-ir-08-L-202308202325.gif [/url]

Franklin has 2 blobs of convection, I think these areas will be competing.

They're not necessarily competing blobs, it's a byproduct of Franklin and lagging upper-level vorticity. Notice the displacement between 850mb (lower-levels) and 500mb (upper-levels):


The impressive updrafts we're seeing in Franklin tonight also creates a convergence zone to the east of the system. This is due to the increasing southwesterly flow from the system's counter-clockwise circulation, and when this interacts with the prevailing easterlies over the Caribbean (in conjunction with a displaced upper-level vorticity), you get this thunderstorm complex that develops. It's not unusual to have the LLC displaced to the west in this region (due to increased flow typically at the lower-levels), and we've seen these features even in very strong hurricanes (Matthew comes to mind):

[AnnularCane]

Tropical Tidbits is being weird. It's got REMNANTS of Franklin for some reason.

[IsabelaWeather]

Convection is going nuts right now. Cloud tops look to be ~-90C

I'm rather bummed this is going to be so far away, would really have liked to get some heavy rain from this system.

[Chemmers]

crazy the amount off Convection now, wouldn't be surprised if it was an hurricane in the next 24 hours before it it land

[wxman57]

One of my coworkers pointed out that an ASCAT-C pass at 0213Z indicated an open wave. No closed circulation. I still think it has TS winds, but the circulation is questionable, at least it was overnight. We'l see what recon finds.

[Blown Away]

One of my coworkers pointed out that an ASCAT-C pass at 0213Z indicated an open wave. No closed circulation. I still think it has TS winds, but the circulation is questionable, at least it was overnight. We'l see what recon finds.

Seems to happen with E Caribbean systems w/ big convection and poor surface structure. GFS has consistently been showing center reform to the NE. However I struggle buying GFS moving Franklin ENE during August from @70W to @60W once above Hispaniola.

[wxman57]

One of my coworkers pointed out that an ASCAT-C pass at 0213Z indicated an open wave. No closed circulation. I still think it has TS winds, but the circulation is questionable, at least it was overnight. We'l see what recon finds.

Seems to happen with E Caribbean systems w/ big convection and poor surface structure. GFS has consistently been showing center reform to the NE. However I struggle buying GFS moving Franklin ENE during August from @70W to @60W once above Hispaniola.

GFS is alone with the NE movement passing east of Bermuda. May pass near or a little west of Bermuda, blocked by high pressure for a couple of days. Shouldn't be any U.S. threat, though.

[aspen]

One of my coworkers pointed out that an ASCAT-C pass at 0213Z indicated an open wave. No closed circulation. I still think it has TS winds, but the circulation is questionable, at least it was overnight. We'l see what recon finds.

When is today’s first recon flight again?

[kevin]

Dvorak is quite aggressive, says it's already at 55 kt (raw T# of 4.0 even supports 65 kt). Very interested to see what recon will find.

Current Intensity Analysis



UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 21 AUG 2023 Time : 111020 UTC
Lat : 14:59:50 N Lon : 69:32:11 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.5 / 989.8mb/ 55.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.5 3.8 4.0

Center Temp : -74.0C Cloud Region Temp : -79.1C

[kevin]

Look at that purple

[toad strangler]

Look at that purple

https://imgur.com/IZp9KuE

That's El Nino induced Caribbean shear blowing it up