ATL: IDALIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/WxPatel/status/1695252939860820466

[floridasun]

looking sat pic hard find were center will form we need plane fly in

[cycloneye]

looking sat pic hard find were center will form we need plane fly in

First plane will go on Sunday afternoon.

[crimi481]

strange summer near Englewood FL. Only 3 days decent rain. All 3 layers atmosphere hot/dry. Top layer melts the rising late day cloud tops. Wonder if this happens to 93 l- keeping it cat 1 or less?

[Hurricaneman]

looking sat pic hard find were center will form we need plane fly in

First plane will go on Sunday afternoon.

Who knows, this might be Idalia by then

[Category5Kaiju]

Ngl, the fact that this has a chance of becoming YET ANOTHER I STORM IN THE GULF is slightly nerve-wracking for me already.

[Landy]

My honest opinion? This should be a PTC with TS warnings for the Yucatan peninsula. Looks quite a bit more organized than you'd expect following the models.

Also, recon earlier than Sunday afternoon would be very helpful.

[Hurricane2022]

Never trust the I storm! NEVER!

[Landy]

[Ianswfl]

Huge blow up persisting northeast of the NHC position. I wonder if they could become dominate since the system is still broad.

[wx98]

Never trust the I storm! NEVER!

https://imageshack.com/i/pnK6Sxcap
https://imageshack.com/i/pnXFfJjsj
https://imageshack.com/i/po7IRiC1j
https://imageshack.com/i/pmFNFg9zj

Ian, Ida, Isaias, Irma, Isaac, Irene, Igor, Ike, Ivan, Isabel, Isidore…

[Landy]

[Extratropical94]

Northwestern Caribbean Sea and Eastern Gulf of Mexico (AL93):
Shower and thunderstorm activity continues to show signs of
organization in association with an area of low pressure over the
northwestern Caribbean Sea. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for further development of this system during the next
several days, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this
weekend or early next week while it moves generally northward over
the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Interests in the Yucatan Peninsula of
Mexico, western Cuba, and Florida should monitor the progress of
this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

[REDHurricane]

Could definitely be wrong here, but it looks like the LLC might be re-consolidating slightly to the east under the recent burst of convection near 21ºN, 85ºW?

[AtlanticWind]

https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/857017650042503178/1144860661160083486/goes16_rgb_93L.gif

Outflow well established

[Blown Away]

Could definitely be wrong here, but it looks like the LLC might be re-consolidating slightly to the east under the recent burst of convection near 21ºN, 85ºW?

https://media2.giphy.com/media/v1.Y2lkPTc5MGI3NjExeG5oc2x5OGhvMno3YWVkOHh2amhtMWNtNmpiMXU1dHpkNTdtdGs0biZlcD12MV9pbnRlcm5hbF9naWZfYnlfaWQmY3Q9Zw/kwBAIFJVVMzygf8EVX/giphy.gif

Since 00z NHC kept 93L at 19.0N/86.1W and there is no LLC there ATM. The deep convection is @1.5 degrees NE of that spot and if it persists I think NHC will adjust to that area. 4-5 days to go from Yucatán to Big Bend seems like a lot of time, I think we will see the track speed up over the weekend.

[LandoWill]

Good morning, so are they thinking panhandle/bama area? As of right now, doesn't seem like to many models making this a west coast Florida situation. Which is a relief, but then again from my experiences, when they predict a general area early on, it always wrong lol

[REDHurricane]

Since 00z NHC kept 93L at 19.0N/86.1W and there is no LLC there ATM. The deep convection is @1.5 degrees NE of that spot and if it persists I think NHC will adjust to that area. 4-5 days to go from Yucatán to Big Bend seems like a lot of time, I think we will see the track speed up over the weekend.

Yep, I think you can see it somewhat clearly in the several most recent frames of the satellite gif:

[caneman]

Since 00z NHC kept 93L at 19.0N/86.1W and there is no LLC there ATM. The deep convection is @1.5 degrees NE of that spot and if it persists I think NHC will adjust to that area. 4-5 days to go from Yucatán to Big Bend seems like a lot of time, I think we will see the track speed up over the weekend.

Yep, I think you can see it somewhat clearly in the several most recent frames of the satellite gif:

https://media3.giphy.com/media/v1.Y2lkPTc5MGI3NjExMWI5MXJxdGg2anRpdnZtNWl5cXRmdHcxcnFnNmMzNjc3dGVtbXM0biZlcD12MV9pbnRlcm5hbF9naWZfYnlfaWQmY3Q9Zw/dMShwTGq8eKy4CWCOm/giphy.gif

https://i.ibb.co/bFvjVVM/02b2843a-5638-492d-b214-539c44065a4a.jpg

Agree with both of you. LLC pretty clearly setting up shop right in the channel. Faster and more easterly solutions seem to be verifying so far. Could have a TD by Sat. Night. IMO.

[tropicwatch]

Rotation looking pretty good on radar.

https://www.rainviewer.com/weather-radar-map-live.html