ATL: LEE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[SouthDadeFish]

This system has a very high ceiling. If the stall north of the Antilles verifies, we could be looking at a top-10 ACE Atlantic TC. Hoping this stays north of the islands, but it's uncomfortably close at the moment.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1698430495468421344

[weeniepatrol]

Don't see this specific messaging on a TWO too often:

Additional strengthening is likely late this week while the system
moves westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph over the
central and western portions of the tropical Atlantic.

[msbee]

Central Tropical Atlantic (AL95):
A tropical wave located several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo
Verde Islands is producing a large area of shower and thunderstorm
activity. This system has become better organized since yesterday,
and environmental conditions appear conducive for further
development this week. A tropical depression is likely to form
around midweek while the system moves westward to west-northwestward
at 15 to 20 mph over the central and western portions of the
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

Seems the NHC bent their cone back more W at 8am compared to NW turn at 2am??

Yes. More closer to PR.

https://i.imgur.com/I3HZA6Q.png

Yes, and closer to st Maarten too, Luis.
We are going to have a close call on this one.

[cycloneye]

Seems the NHC bent their cone back more W at 8am compared to NW turn at 2am??

Yes. More closer to PR.

https://i.imgur.com/I3HZA6Q.png

Yes, and closer to st Maarten too, Luis.
We are going to have a close call on this one.

You are right Barbara. We will be going thru every update to see how are things going and if we in the NE Caribbean have to prepare.

[GCANE]

 https://twitter.com/HurricaneAddict/status/1698415497560100875

[InfernoFlameCat]

This is all very interesting. Let’s hope Lee is able to recurve and be similar to Sam in nature.

[Hurrilurker]

Just looking at the image posted above showing the trough disappearing...at the same time it doesn't look like a ridge is really building into the area either. The ridge to the south would probably keep it out of the Caribbean Sea (ie. south of Cuba) without anything pushing on it from the north, but does it just continue cruising northwest-ish? Bahamas and US EC beware.

[cycloneye]

8 PM.

Central Tropical Atlantic (AL95):
Showers and thunderstorms are showing signs of organization in
association with a tropical wave located several hundred miles
southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions are
forecast to be conducive for further development, and this system is
expected to become a tropical depression in two or three days.
Additional strengthening is likely late this week while the system
moves westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph over the
central and western portions of the tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

[jlauderdal]

8 PM.

Central Tropical Atlantic (AL95):
Showers and thunderstorms are showing signs of organization in
association with a tropical wave located several hundred miles
southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions are
forecast to be conducive for further development, and this system is
expected to become a tropical depression in two or three days.
Additional strengthening is likely late this week while the system
moves westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph over the
central and western portions of the tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

We need to keep this thing north of PR. Big potential with this system.

[zzzh]

Low-mid level looks moist. It won't take too long to see convection burst around the center.

[WalterWhite]

https://i.imgur.com/QoCCtCd.gif
Low-mid level looks moist. It won't take too long to see convection burst around the center.

Is there an ASCAT map?

[869MB]

Unfortunately, in my opinion, a 1989 Hurricane Hugo 500mb upper-level pattern can't be ruled out at this juncture. Just 24 to 36 hours ago, I really didn't think such a pattern would ever materialize. But now, I'm not quite so sure. The latest Operational GFS and Euro runs are kind of trending in that direction but in different manners. Nonetheless, most of us have been doing this long enough to know to never take mid to long-range upper patterns verbatim, and calling Fish Storm or CONUS strike based upon these models is premature. With that being said, I have the Hugo upper-level pattern memorized and will be very closely observing how the models resolve the pattern over the forthcoming days.

The U.S. 500mb Geopotential Height Composite Mean between 8/15/1989 and 8/19/1989...

https://psl.noaa.gov/tmp/composites/comphour.cEycrb_WAj.gif

12Z Euro run at 240hrs..

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=us&pkg=z500_mslp&runtime=2023090312&fh=12


For those of you not familiar with Hurricane Hugo, here's a link for reference...
https://www.weather.gov/ilm/hurricanehugo

[Dsci4]

I’m sure some of you have probably been looking at analogs. I really like Bertha 96’ for its origin location along with current projected track of 95L. The intensity will likely be dramatically different down the road which could change things up but the track almost mirrors the model runs out pretty far… especially considering we are starting to see signs that OTS is definitely not a guarantee and the potential west shifts will make it an even better match barring a hard west turn

If that were to verify it’d be a Carolinas issue

[IsabelaWeather]

https://i.imgur.com/QoCCtCd.gif
Low-mid level looks moist. It won't take too long to see convection burst around the center.

DMAX ought to be interesting.

[SFLcane]

Some of us on social media are 0-1 with the predictions this season mention no names lol. Let’s see how this plays out

[dukeblue219]

Unfortunately, in my opinion, a 1989 Hurricane Hugo 500mb upper-level pattern can't be ruled out at this juncture.

I was 3 when Hugo hit SC, and to some degree the damage I saw (and admittedly the excitement as a 3 year old) spurned a lot of my interest in tropical weather to this day. I, too, will be watching the upper levels closely for that rare setup that drives a storm directly into the east coast. Fortunately we are far out and that kind of setup takes everything lined up just right...

Hugo is also infamous as the storm that tried to take down a P-3 with Jeff Masters: https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/ ... ugo-part-1

[cycloneye]

Unfortunately, in my opinion, a 1989 Hurricane Hugo 500mb upper-level pattern can't be ruled out at this juncture. Just 24 to 36 hours ago, I really didn't think such a pattern would ever materialize. But now, I'm not quite so sure. The latest Operational GFS and Euro runs are kind of trending in that direction but in different manners. Nonetheless, most of us have been doing this long enough to know to never take mid to long-range upper patterns verbatim, and calling Fish Storm or CONUS strike based upon these models is premature. With that being said, I have the Hugo upper-level pattern memorized and will be very closely observing how the models resolve the pattern over the forthcoming days.

The U.S. 500mb Geopotential Height Composite Mean between 8/15/1989 and 8/19/1989...

https://psl.noaa.gov/tmp/composites/comphour.cEycrb_WAj.gif

12Z Euro run at 240hrs..

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=us&pkg=z500_mslp&runtime=2023090312&fh=12


For those of you not familiar with Hurricane Hugo, here's a link for reference...
https://www.weather.gov/ilm/hurricanehugo
https://www.weather.gov/images/ilm/climate/hugo/Hugo_track2.png

Very interesting all of that.

[ScottNAtlanta]

The change in the models is due to the correction that Idalia is not hanging around. If it was that would create the weakness. As it is, there is no weakness and high pressure builds in instead which also doesn't let a trough progress as fast as if there was a weakness to begin with.

[cycloneye]

00zz Best Track:

AL, 95, 2023090400, , BEST, 0, 107N, 299W, 30, 1010, DB